ATP/WTA Madrid Masters 2015 Picks

[Jeff_Black]

Wanted to get on this one early because I think there's some great value for it.

ATP Madrid Masters 1000: Futures/Outright Betting
To win tournament outright: Rafael Nadal @ 2.80 (William Hill)
Risking 5.xx u to return 15u

So the draw is a pretty sweet spot for Nadal, no one he cannot beat at the momentum. No Djokovic. I think it's a little disrespectful to offer him such high odds. I think it should be closer to 2.20.
But ignoring all the diplomatic press conferences where Nadal talks himself down he knows he needs to defend this title to keep points and also playing at home will help his causes too. It'll be his token 'confidence boosting' tournament heading into the French.

[kdawgy]

Nadal is definitely in a do or die spot coming in to the height of the clay court season. His confidence is at an all time low, and he's had health issues 2 our of the last 3 years.

If he doesn't win either of the Masters tournaments or the French Open this could very well be his worst career year in a long time. Good luck with your pick!

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks man.
I think it's that pressure spot/haven't won much so far that will be the decider. It'll be on his racquet this whole tournament. The exact same situation as last year.
If he plays well he will win it. If he doesn't he may still win it but it may be tougher. If he plays poorly he can lose. But willing to take the risk.
I find it extremely unlikely he will go into Rome or the French without one of his token clay Masters.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm not sure how it is disrespectful based on what we've seen from him. I think the odds are perfectly fair. That last match he played against Fognini was one of the worst I can ever remember him playing. At this stage, I don't think it's safe for us to assume that he's going to magically not feel the pressure and play better from week to week until he proves it. Certainly has a nice draw until the quarters at least. Good luck to ya.

[Jeff_Black]

Fair enough. It probably does reflect his form at the moment but I just see the value without Djokovic there now that's all. I think he should make the Semi Final with that draw at the least and the pressure of defending points will remind him of that.
We'll get the usual crap from Nadal with his press conferences if he does win, 'feeling confident, no?', 'trying to play better each day', 'each match is important and special and title and win special' blah blah blah.
I think he does realise now he plays too many matches on clay and can't push it like he used to do back when he was 24-25 so if he doesn't win Barcelona each year I don't think he will care anymore.

[Jeff_Black]

Onto the tournament play...

ATP Madrid R64
Sam Querrey vs Thanasi Kokkinakis
Money Line: Sam Querrey @ 1.793 on Pinnacle
1.5u play

ATP Madrid R64
Ernests Gulbis vs David Goffin
Game Handicap: David Goffin -3.5 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
1.5u play

[bet-lag]

Any potential upsets?

[Jeff_Black]

Dont like anything for today as an upset, no.

ATP Madrid: R64
Martin Klizan vs Marcel Granoellers
Total Game Score: Over 21.5 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
1u play

ATP Madrid: R64
Daniel Gimeno Traver vs Nick Kyrgios
Money Line: Daniel Gimeno Traver @ 1.806 on Pinnacle
1u play

[Semper Fidelis]

Good first day again, buddy! Love seeing your picks every day, especially when (more often than not I'd like to add) you have the picks I'm already strongly leaning towards! Thanks for helping me pull the trigger on many plays I might've missed on, and BOL to us during this tournament!

[Jeff_Black]

All good man!, not a lot I liked today to be honest and honestly it's easier to pick more and be less confident but I'm a lot more confident on these two anyway. I felt like doing another 'overs' bet but I dont want to push the luck. A lot of matches that can go to three sets IMO. Just a matter of picking who.

Didn't really rate Kyrgios' run at Estoril and I think the odds reflect a little too heavily on that. Likewise I see the other matchup being three sets if Klizan is as inconsistent as he has been or at least one close tiebreaker.

[GR33D]

i really like kyrgios to win here. but BOL. i think the over will be the safest play for me

[Jeff_Black]

Likewise with you as well, do agree with overs. I can see a tiebreak set in there somewhere. Kyrgios made a final so I'm treading lightly and the altitude of Madrid is a different experience.

[Jeff_Black]

Completely wrong about the Kyrgios/Gimeno Traver match. Pathetic performance from him in front of the home crowd. Kyrgios had a ridiculously high rate of points won off first serves so wasn't surprised he did it easy in the end.

ATP Madrid Masters 1000 R32
Money lines:
- John Isner @ 1.724 (Pinnacle)
- Fernando Verdasco @ 1.95 (William Hill/Sporting)
Both 1u plays

[Jeff_Black]

Better day, nearly pencilled in Verdasco as a loss when he was down 2-4 in the second set tiebreak but to his credit he got back into it and the home crowd helped too.

ATP Madrid Masters 1000 R16

John Isner vs Nick Kyrgios
Money Line: John Isner @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
1u play

Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Tomas Berdych
Total Game Score: Over 22.0 @ 1.980 on Pinnacle
1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Meh...

ATP Madrid Masters 1000 - Quarter Finals

Rafael Nadal vs Grigor Dimitrov
Total Game Score: Under 21.5 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
1u play

Milos Raonic vs Andy Murray
Game Handicap: Milos Raonic +2.5 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
1u play

John Isner vs Tomas Berdych
Game Handicap: John Isner +3.0 @ 2.009 on Pinnacle
1u play

[fitguy67]

"meat loaf" sweep: don't be sad...2 outa 3 ain't bad

[waste1]

fuuuck why kei odds so fcking bad anyoe do me a favor and smash murray for a few millions so kei odds will get juicy

[bet-lag]

What is next mighty Jeff?

[Jeff_Black]

Really don't like a lot hey? I'll take a bit of a leap of faith in Berdych considering he has been playing well and take that potentially tasty line. Wasn't entirely impressed with Nadal against Dimitrov but played well when he mattered. Can see Berdych pushing him back as well and he has been serving well so I like it.

ATP Madrid Masters 1000 - Semi Finals
Tomas Berdych vs Rafael Nadal
Game Handicap: Tomas Berdych +4.0 @ 1.813 on Pinnacle
2u play

[bet-lag]

Let's hit this

[Jeff_Black]

Berd brain got tired in the end, serves me right. But he's been playing well.

Anyway likely gonna ride out the Nadal outright unless he shortens a lot. Which I don't really see

[bet-lag]

Rome plays?

[Jeff_Black]

Nothing I really like today, will leave it for tommorow