Originally posted by BennyBigNuts
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unreal all favorite except linette, looks like she owned h2h for some reasonComment -
Anybody have a good pick for 12 monterrey wta??Comment -
I thought you were the capping master. Let's hear your picksOriginally posted by CappinpicksComment -
I'm on tsurenko, no idea about the qualifiers thoughComment -
i knew nara was a sure thing lock but wta is normally a crap shoot might as well collaborate, you have any solid pick for qualifying?Originally posted by HatersGonnaHate
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rogers seems like value but take larsson if you want a more sure win, looks very free vs shlt bertensOriginally posted by Vinnie PazComment -
Only thing that looks remotely worth taking a risk on in that qualifying would be rads/hog over or the over 2.5 sets prop for that matchComment -
ok will try that, a side seems like torture for the 12'sOriginally posted by HatersGonnaHateComment -
rad just went from -105 to -130 not sure it means anything? taking Bondarenko seems worth a shotComment -
It means more people bet on her than bet on her opponent, you f*cking genius.Comment -
What is your best bet smart ass?Originally posted by HardcoarComment -
One I like is Mladenovic over Smitkova. This isn't fast indoors, after all...Comment -
is Babos a sure win?Comment -
fixed it...as you know: markets are NOT "one person one vote", they're "one dollar/euro/pound/yen one vote"...the big "elephant in the room" that makes publicly-available consensus indicators a steaming pile of dung...books may tell you accurate % based on the "number of bets" on either side of a play...but they will damn-near never tell you anything usable regarding the money-amounts on either side of a bet...WHEN books want to to lock in profit/remove risk on a bet, they try to balance the money (not the number of tickets) on either side of itOriginally posted by Hardcoar
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glad to have you back around here, hardcoar...got your bookie situation sorted yet?..would love to see yet another edition of your hi-variance/hi-return plays...Comment -
whats with this huge delay? must be raining like no tomorrow wowOriginally posted by fitguy67Comment -
Originally posted by Vinnie Pazwill put a unit onto tsurenko...and if/when it hits...will consider rolling it into larsson...thanks guys...Originally posted by Cappinpicks
let's keep this thread going...fitting if a thread entitled "My LAST gash-rackets play"...ends up giving birth to lots more...
the trick of betting these lower brands of tennis, where "form" (especially service-holding) is much less reliable...is to consider each match the flip of a weighted coin...which very often (certainly more often than with ATP) has a true weight closer to/further from (even if by "just a bit") an unweighted-50% than the price implies...
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for example (showing value on a fave, for a change) say the Tsurenko-ML is booked at 1.5/-200, implying a 66.67% chance of a bet on her cashing...if you deem her true chance of winning is just a tad better than that, say 70% AND you were correct...then you'd have an nice fat 5% "edge" by buying at 1.5 over the true break-even price of 1.4286
a mismatch between the "booked" and the "perceived as true" probability of a bet's cashing is more likely to occur/easy to "find" with the less well known players (and/or, in the case of the women's game--the players lacking weapons-grade serves and ground-strokes, not to mention being prone to menstrual woes a double-digit % of the time) than with the marquis ATP'ers
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bet-sizing is key...can't be too aggressive (let the dog odds do that when the value is on that side, as it usually is when "bigger name" plays "lesser name")...cuz losing streaks can be painful...gotta resist the temptation to get "revenge" for and chase previous losses that "shouldn'ta happened"...
personally i like to play da-broads and da-scrubs TO WIN a single unit...and just persist thru the bad runs till the good runs comeComment -
you guys had a look at the wta mexican open matches tonight any interest youComment -
anything at 1 am in malaysia Benny? looking at buyukakcayComment -
buyukakcay she is definitely playing some decent tennis... Gajdosova is a breakable serve for sure serving 40 double faults to 37 aces saving only 50 percent on break points. If anything i believe buyukakcay can win a set maybe take the plus 1 and half setsComment -
but that plus 220 looks nice and juicyComment -
yea i also heard Georges -1.5 sets? not sold but kudrat is shlt i thinkOriginally posted by Olemiss_RebfanComment -
buyukak +1.5 setComment -
okay, well whats up for the next set of bets, hit on first set of GoergesComment -
injuried ugly muslim bitch sucksComment -
fat arm c.unt was simple i guessComment -
Sorry wasn't around on here.Originally posted by Cappinpicks
Bukkake sucks
Single #399472858
Tennis - All tournaments for women (Game) Point Spread
WTA - Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Jarmila Gajdosova -1½ (+110) Mar 02/15@10:00p
Final Scores
Cagla Buyukakcay 0
Jarmila Gajdosova 2
Outcome: Win
Date settled: Mar 02, 2015 11:56:58 PMComment -
Weather is gone to shit right now, but I need Dellaqua to close out a parlay and shes losing so a suspension may not be too bad for me lol.Originally posted by Cappinpicks
I'm on this later:
Carina Witthoeft -120
-1.5 sets +175Comment -
Benny, you WTA expert?
You're on a rollComment -
Dellacqua really deserves to lose this game. Real shitty game she's playingComment -
This is what I get for the one time thinking I can trust dellacqua
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Needed that pig to close a parlay out.Originally posted by Vinnie PazThis is what I get for the one time thinking I can trust dellacqua
She really is a mediocre player.
Her rally game is so weak she does nothing with 80% of her swings, just straight to the opponent with no purpose.
Doesn't hustle, takes half the points off.
The fact she's a lefty may be her only slight edge.Comment -
Just live bet Wozniaki to win first set down 2-0. Laid -182 but seemed like stealing.Comment -
What you got in Monterrey?Comment -
what about Sabine lisickis match guys any thoughtsComment -
Fade her or passComment
