Suishi/Chinchilla odds

reddevil84 · 09-06-14, 05:16 PM

Cilic -130
Sushi +120

SirtySree · 09-06-14, 05:19 PM

1.9 v 1.9 on bet365 but dropped to 1.8 Nish straight away.

matt1216 · 09-06-14, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by SirtySree

1.9 v 1.9 on bet365 but dropped to 1.8 Nish straight away.

Good hit today SirtySree.... What do you think about this match? Cilic has been a beast but Nishikori has taken down every diffrent style.... Great server in Raonic, solid backhand/shot maker in wawa, and the best returner in the game. I have a feeling nishikori will be slammed by the public

slayer14 · 09-06-14, 06:25 PM

only fitness issues can stop nishikori, if he is playing at his normal consistent tennis he will win.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-06-14, 06:35 PM

Surprised Nishikori isn't a little firmer favorite. I see -125 at 5D. While both were impressive, I think McEnroe brought up some excellent points about Federer's movement being compromised some today in that he did not recover well from his 5 setter. Cilic certainly has perhaps the best 1st serve on the planet right now, he's been winning 80% consistently all-tournament. Even a more nimble Fed might have struggled against that. Nishikori though, a much better mover and returner than the Federer we saw today. Pretty certain I will be on Nishikori, but will wait to see all the options for the match.

The only thing conditions wise that they will worry about Monday looks like wind. The temps look to be maybe the best since the first couple of days. Humidity will still be higher, but with lower temps not quite as big a factor.

SirtySree · 09-06-14, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Good hit today SirtySree.... What do you think about this match? Cilic has been a beast but Nishikori has taken down every diffrent style.... Great server in Raonic, solid backhand/shot maker in wawa, and the best returner in the game. I have a feeling nishikori will be slammed by the public

Thanks.

Not an easy match to call since there's too many factors that are unpredictable. The biggest one being Cilic's first serve %, if it is anywhere around 65% or above, he will win. If it is down at 50-55%, Nish will take apart that 2nd serve. Also another factor being Cilic playing a whole 3 sets today above his usual self which outside of Wawrinka, I have never seen anyone else do before but doubt he can replicate that twice in a row. Another big factor being the fact it is a Grand Slam final so we have no clue how either one will respond to the pressure.

All the factors put together, it is pretty much a coinflip like the odds suggests. I will say Nish wins only because I like Nish and don't particularly like Cilic but that isn't really a valid reason for backing Nish.

If it was outside a grand slam final, it would be a monster play on Nish at anything above 1.8 odds.

sluggy1616 · 09-06-14, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by SirtySree

Thanks.

Not an easy match to call since there's too many factors that are unpredictable. The biggest one being Cilic's first serve %, if it is anywhere around 65% or above, he will win. If it is down at 50-55%, Nish will take apart that 2nd serve. Also another factor being Cilic playing a whole 3 sets today above his usual self which outside of Wawrinka, I have never seen anyone else do before but doubt he can replicate that twice in a row. Another big factor being the fact it is a Grand Slam final so we have no clue how either one will respond to the pressure.

All the factors put together, it is pretty much a coinflip like the odds suggests. I will say Nish wins only because I like Nish and don't particularly like Cilic but that isn't really a valid reason for backing Nish.

If it was outside a grand slam final, it would be a monster play on Nish at anything above 1.8 odds.

I just put unit on sushi @1.80. i like your points sirty but given the quality of guys that Suishi beat compared to chinchilla I have to give sushi the nod. I dont think sushi got beat up too badly today. I think cilic would need 68+% 1st serves cause I think his 2nd serve % will be in the low 40's%. (if sushi brings the game he has brought thus far)

EaglesPhan36 · 09-06-14, 07:30 PM

Cilic's 1st serve for the season is right at 80%, he's been at that level the whole tournament. It really comes down to 2nd serves and unforced errors more often than not unless someone has an uncharacteristically poor 1st serve day. Cilic is very likely to be over 70% again on 1st serves IMO. No one has been able to touch him consistently without him really donating a poor effort.

SirtySree · 09-06-14, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Cilic's 1st serve for the season is right at 80%, he's been at that level the whole tournament. It really comes down to 2nd serves and unforced errors more often than not unless someone has an uncharacteristically poor 1st serve day. Cilic is very likely to be over 70% again on 1st serves IMO. No one has been able to touch him consistently without him really donating a poor effort.

He has been serving unreal when he's got them in. The numbers I posted above meant first serve % made, not won cause I don't think I made that particularly clear.

Nish's first serve % won has been really high as well despite some thinking he has a bad serve but it's up near 80% as well in the last few tournaments.

sluggy1616 · 09-06-14, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Cilic's 1st serve for the season is right at 80%, he's been at that level the whole tournament. It really comes down to 2nd serves and unforced errors more often than not unless someone has an uncharacteristically poor 1st serve day. Cilic is very likely to be over 70% again on 1st serves IMO. No one has been able to touch him consistently without him really donating a poor effort.

Sorry EP. I'm mixing and matching stats. I'm talking 1st serves in. He is 56% on hard this year and probably around the same in the tourney. I think he needs 68+% 1st serves in. Sushi had Joker winning 37% of his 2nd serve points Joker is 56% avg on hard this year. Chichilla has to get the 1st serve in at a high clip or it could be a quick day for him.(if nishi is on)

tipsadontlikehim · 09-06-14, 07:46 PM

maybe the 2nd most unpredictable match of the year? (1st was Dolgopolov/Chardy at the australain open)

EaglesPhan36 · 09-06-14, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by sluggy1616

Sorry EP. I'm mixing and matching stats. I'm talking 1st serves in. He is 56% on hard this year and probably around the same in the tourney. I think he needs 68+% 1st serves in. Sushi had Joker winning 37% of his 2nd serve points Joker is 56% avg on hard this year. Chichilla has to get the 1st serve in at a high clip or it could be a quick day for him.(if nishi is on)

Gotcha. Yeah I get that stat. One of the shittiest at getting 1st serves in = Berdych, hence IMO his implosion most of this year. I think any time you win 40% on 2nd serve from your opponent, you're going to be right in that match with a chance to win. Anything higher and you damn well should be winning if you're taking care of your own shit.

boondoggle · 09-06-14, 07:58 PM

I will be on cilic for nice sum.

sluggy1616 · 09-06-14, 08:16 PM

Originally posted by boondoggle

I will be on cilic for nice sum.

Cilic also scares me cause of the choke job he put up against robredo playing at home. That is mental weakness. The suishi master has been strong in the mental department. But like others have said anything can happen. Good luck to you.

matt1216 · 09-06-14, 09:54 PM

The line opening up at 1.90ish for each player seems a bit off. I think this will go deep. Both guys probably somewhat suprised there here, at the same point both guys will play the match of their lives on monday. Mentally, I would have to give the edge to nishikori. Cilic is like Raonic but with a better return game. If Cilic serves like he did vs Fed today, he will beat Nishikori no problem. Raonic had that match if he wanted it.