Fade or follow ... I don't give a shit.
Whatever you do just post your logic for doing so.
11:00am Mikhail Youzhny -165 v Andreas Seppi +145
I think I have literally lost every wager ever placed with/against Youzhny. He is 4-1 H2H but both of these guys are flaky/streaky so probably not going to play the ML. However, in their 5 matches only one has lasted more than two sets so I will be taking a close look at the UNDER once posted.
UPDATE: The UNDER is 22 +105 which isn't ideal so no play.
FURTHER UPDATE: UNDER was of course the play and I didn't follow my initial instinct.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1:45pm Marin Cilic -285 v Fernando Verdasco +243
Cilic seems to be rounding into form after knocking some rust off in Toronto. Verdasco actually leads the H2H 5-4 but the big serve and big forehand of Cilic on hard courts should allow him to control the points. Verdasco just won a tough 3 set match in a TB against Granola Bar who made him force every shot and work hard every point putting a zillion balls back in play. I don't think Verdasco will be physically ready to compete like he needs to.
UPDATE: Cilic up to -315. Shit. Putting half on ML and half on -1.5 (-105).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3:15pm Steve Johnson +220 v Ernests Gulbis -260
I pussed out on taking Johnson today and he of course had an easy win against Paire. Gulbis had two TB sets against Junk Yard Dodig which has to take some of the steam out of his legs. No data up yet so will have to look further but leaning toward Johnson + games.
UPDATE: Johnson is +3 (-118). Plus 3 games is somewhat useless unless this goes 3 sets. No play.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1:45pm David Ferrer -225 v Philipp Kohlschreiber +185
Ferrer has won the last 5 matchups and seems to be getting into some form on the hard courts playing a diminished Fed pretty tight. I don't believe Kohl has the shotmaking ability to dominate the points nor the consistency to match Ferrer in longer rallies.
UPDATE: Ferrer down to -210. I'm on it.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3:00pm Agnieszka Radwanska -485 v Kurumi Nara +385
Can I bet the over on time in this match? These rallies are going to be 20 shots long.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12:15pm Sabine Lisicki -155 v Sara Errani +135
Surprised Lisicki isn't a larger favorite. Basically if she is hitting her shots the feisty little counter puncher has little chance. I suppose Lisicki is prone to bouts of unforced errors and mental lapses but she has been playing pretty well on the hard courts and in fact beat Errani 6-1 7-5 last week in Montreal.
UPDATE: Lisicki is now -190. Shit. Still betting b/c of confidence level but wish I pulled the trigger last night just in case the unforced error machine shows up.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12:30pm Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -230 v Karin Knapp
This is the battle of the big girls. Pav.... just destroyed Cibulkova by overpowering her in every point. Knapp is nothing special so expecting a similar type 6-3 6-3 outcome.
UPDATE: Pav up to -245. Taking smaller and watching for live bet.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1:30pm 610 Sloane Stephens -160* vs Barbora Zahlavova Strycova
Love Strycova's aggressive style but if Stephens plays like she did yesterday Stephens is too talented.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Whatever you do just post your logic for doing so.
11:00am Mikhail Youzhny -165 v Andreas Seppi +145
I think I have literally lost every wager ever placed with/against Youzhny. He is 4-1 H2H but both of these guys are flaky/streaky so probably not going to play the ML. However, in their 5 matches only one has lasted more than two sets so I will be taking a close look at the UNDER once posted.
UPDATE: The UNDER is 22 +105 which isn't ideal so no play.
FURTHER UPDATE: UNDER was of course the play and I didn't follow my initial instinct.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1:45pm Marin Cilic -285 v Fernando Verdasco +243
Cilic seems to be rounding into form after knocking some rust off in Toronto. Verdasco actually leads the H2H 5-4 but the big serve and big forehand of Cilic on hard courts should allow him to control the points. Verdasco just won a tough 3 set match in a TB against Granola Bar who made him force every shot and work hard every point putting a zillion balls back in play. I don't think Verdasco will be physically ready to compete like he needs to.
UPDATE: Cilic up to -315. Shit. Putting half on ML and half on -1.5 (-105).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3:15pm Steve Johnson +220 v Ernests Gulbis -260
I pussed out on taking Johnson today and he of course had an easy win against Paire. Gulbis had two TB sets against Junk Yard Dodig which has to take some of the steam out of his legs. No data up yet so will have to look further but leaning toward Johnson + games.
UPDATE: Johnson is +3 (-118). Plus 3 games is somewhat useless unless this goes 3 sets. No play.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1:45pm David Ferrer -225 v Philipp Kohlschreiber +185
Ferrer has won the last 5 matchups and seems to be getting into some form on the hard courts playing a diminished Fed pretty tight. I don't believe Kohl has the shotmaking ability to dominate the points nor the consistency to match Ferrer in longer rallies.
UPDATE: Ferrer down to -210. I'm on it.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3:00pm Agnieszka Radwanska -485 v Kurumi Nara +385
Can I bet the over on time in this match? These rallies are going to be 20 shots long.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12:15pm Sabine Lisicki -155 v Sara Errani +135
Surprised Lisicki isn't a larger favorite. Basically if she is hitting her shots the feisty little counter puncher has little chance. I suppose Lisicki is prone to bouts of unforced errors and mental lapses but she has been playing pretty well on the hard courts and in fact beat Errani 6-1 7-5 last week in Montreal.
UPDATE: Lisicki is now -190. Shit. Still betting b/c of confidence level but wish I pulled the trigger last night just in case the unforced error machine shows up.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12:30pm Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -230 v Karin Knapp
This is the battle of the big girls. Pav.... just destroyed Cibulkova by overpowering her in every point. Knapp is nothing special so expecting a similar type 6-3 6-3 outcome.
UPDATE: Pav up to -245. Taking smaller and watching for live bet.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1:30pm 610 Sloane Stephens -160* vs Barbora Zahlavova Strycova
Love Strycova's aggressive style but if Stephens plays like she did yesterday Stephens is too talented.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
