Possible plays: give me your thoughts.
11:00am
Nick Kyrgios +100 v Santiago Giraldo (To win 2.5 unit type play)
Kyrgios now -115
Giraldo has been playing really well both on clay leading up to the hard court season but also in Washington eventually losing to Pospisil. Kyrgios obviously hasn't played since his great run on grass and this is a shaky play but ultimately I think his serve helps him struggle to a win.
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11:00am
Marcel Granollers +145 v Yen-Hsun Lu (To win 3.5 units)
Granollers now +105
Lu's serve is hot garbage getting him no easy points so he faces lots of stress on his serve. I'm counting on the clay courter Granollers to be able to out groundstroke Lu.
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12:00pm
Coco Vandeweghe -270 v Shuai Zhang (To win 1.5 units)
Vandeweghe now -375
A bit chalky but Coco has been rolling and Zhang always loses to better players.
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12:00pm
Casey Dellacqua -130 v Kirsten Flipkens (To win 2.5 units)
Deallacqua now -135
Dellacqua is higher rated, is 2-0 H2H this year on hard courts but hasn't played since Wimbledon. Flipkens played Washington and won a round and lost to eventual champion Kuznetsova. Going with the H2H.
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12:30pm
117 Ivo Karlovic +135* vs Bernard Tomic
119 I.Karlovic +1½ Games -110* vs B.Tomic (Stupid bet)
No change to odds
Karlovic has been playing really well the last month and I'm looking for another steady serving performance. Tomic owns the H2H 3-0 and is the better player when both are on their games but he's such a hit-or-miss player I'm counting on his B game coming today.
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12:30pm
Donald Young -165 v Frank Dancevic (To win 2.5 units)
Young now -160
The idea of taking Donald Young as a favorite just made the hair on the back of my neck stand up but I'm expecting (hoping/praying) that he takes the momentum from Washington (especially serving) at least through this 1st rd match. Dancevic has won 7 of his last 10 matches but has lost the last 3 of 4. I don't know much about him but he seems nothing special.
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12:30pm
Jack Sock -180 v Jurgen Melzer (To win 2.5 units)
Sock now -185
See Donald Young above. Melzer is quality but has been in Europe playing on clay so hopefully he is rusty. He also has been losing quite a few of his last matches.
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1:30pm
Karin Knapp -120 v Caroline Garcia (To win 2.5 units)
Knapp now -140
I've been winning with Knapp and she's 2-0 H2H though this is probably going to be a sweaty type match.
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3:00pm
Richard Gasquet -175 v Vasek Pospisil (To win 2.5 unit type play)
Gasquet now -185
I won with Pospisil in Washington but I think that trip to the finals took a lot out of him and frankly he got a bit lucky that Gasquet went into French mode when he was up a break in the 3rd set. I think Gasquet wins here.
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3:30pm
Dominic Thiem +115 v Gilles Simon (To win 5 units)
Thiem now +100
Thiem has a great clay court run and I think his game should translate to hard courts better than most clay court specialists. In fact he's actually 15-5 on hard courts this year whereas Simon is only 5-6. H2H is 1-1 with Simon winning on clay and Thiem winning on hard. Simon is also French .... enough said.
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7:00pm
Svetlana Kuznetsova -170 v Madison Keys (To win 2.5 units)
No change to odds
Both winning lots of matches but Kuznetsova finds a way to win these types of match ups.
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11:00am
Nick Kyrgios +100 v Santiago Giraldo (To win 2.5 unit type play)
Kyrgios now -115
Giraldo has been playing really well both on clay leading up to the hard court season but also in Washington eventually losing to Pospisil. Kyrgios obviously hasn't played since his great run on grass and this is a shaky play but ultimately I think his serve helps him struggle to a win.
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11:00am
Marcel Granollers +145 v Yen-Hsun Lu (To win 3.5 units)
Granollers now +105
Lu's serve is hot garbage getting him no easy points so he faces lots of stress on his serve. I'm counting on the clay courter Granollers to be able to out groundstroke Lu.
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12:00pm
Coco Vandeweghe -270 v Shuai Zhang (To win 1.5 units)
Vandeweghe now -375
A bit chalky but Coco has been rolling and Zhang always loses to better players.
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12:00pm
Casey Dellacqua -130 v Kirsten Flipkens (To win 2.5 units)
Deallacqua now -135
Dellacqua is higher rated, is 2-0 H2H this year on hard courts but hasn't played since Wimbledon. Flipkens played Washington and won a round and lost to eventual champion Kuznetsova. Going with the H2H.
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12:30pm
117 Ivo Karlovic +135* vs Bernard Tomic
119 I.Karlovic +1½ Games -110* vs B.Tomic (Stupid bet)
No change to odds
Karlovic has been playing really well the last month and I'm looking for another steady serving performance. Tomic owns the H2H 3-0 and is the better player when both are on their games but he's such a hit-or-miss player I'm counting on his B game coming today.
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12:30pm
Donald Young -165 v Frank Dancevic (To win 2.5 units)
Young now -160
The idea of taking Donald Young as a favorite just made the hair on the back of my neck stand up but I'm expecting (hoping/praying) that he takes the momentum from Washington (especially serving) at least through this 1st rd match. Dancevic has won 7 of his last 10 matches but has lost the last 3 of 4. I don't know much about him but he seems nothing special.
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12:30pm
Jack Sock -180 v Jurgen Melzer (To win 2.5 units)
Sock now -185
See Donald Young above. Melzer is quality but has been in Europe playing on clay so hopefully he is rusty. He also has been losing quite a few of his last matches.
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1:30pm
Karin Knapp -120 v Caroline Garcia (To win 2.5 units)
Knapp now -140
I've been winning with Knapp and she's 2-0 H2H though this is probably going to be a sweaty type match.
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3:00pm
Richard Gasquet -175 v Vasek Pospisil (To win 2.5 unit type play)
Gasquet now -185
I won with Pospisil in Washington but I think that trip to the finals took a lot out of him and frankly he got a bit lucky that Gasquet went into French mode when he was up a break in the 3rd set. I think Gasquet wins here.
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3:30pm
Dominic Thiem +115 v Gilles Simon (To win 5 units)
Thiem now +100
Thiem has a great clay court run and I think his game should translate to hard courts better than most clay court specialists. In fact he's actually 15-5 on hard courts this year whereas Simon is only 5-6. H2H is 1-1 with Simon winning on clay and Thiem winning on hard. Simon is also French .... enough said.
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7:00pm
Svetlana Kuznetsova -170 v Madison Keys (To win 2.5 units)
No change to odds
Both winning lots of matches but Kuznetsova finds a way to win these types of match ups.
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