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Flipper...let's keep this money-train rolling...threads with good tennis picks not easy to come by these days in sbr landComment -
Btw brodie, I get what you're saying about the "wins" now, I didn't at first. I don't think you realize that everyone of my winners has been a favorite of no more than -160 and I bet dogs a lot, all lines are posted in my record. All my picks unless stated otherwise are to win a unit. Regardless of what you say or not, going 23-12 picking nothing but dogs and favorites of -160 or less is incredibly tough. I'm up quite a bit
I'll have a play up for tomorrow soonComment -
when i first read it, i thot Broadie--one of the good guys around here--was uncharacteristically trying to stir up some shit...and must have some "history" of snotty posts with you
but after reading the whole thread...and the "gucci" post again it seems like it really was an offbeat way to compliment you on a good W-L record (with a "great, now don't get cocky/sloppy" message attached)...that's always been the problem with the written word...harder to be clever/subtle without being misconstrued
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do you REALLY bet everything TO WIN the stated/assumed amount (what i call "fixed target")...as opposed to the standard american "hybrid" protocol...you know dogs to risk/faves to win...or the standard euro protocol (everything to risk the stated amount)
all else equal...fixed target is the best way to go...and it is the very essence of the kelly criterion...betting whatever you need to TO WIN the %edge (or some pre-determined fraction of it)...
if so, i'm glad to meet another "fixed target" practitioner...we're definitely in the minority...the advantage of betting dogs for me is a cheaper-priced (ie. lower-risk) ticket for the same prize (usually 1 unit) my faves are after...but everybody else thinks it means a bigger-than-normal payout is being soughtComment -
I don't think it was a compliment, it was more of a joke that I post a win/loss record without posting my units won/loss.
How I do it is, if I'm betting a favorite and they are -130 I will lay 130$ to win 100$. If I'm playing a dog and they are +140 I will lay 100$ to win 140$. I'm very strict about what I place on single bets, parlays are a little different, I play those for small units. I used to be a very immature bettor and just bet for action. Now that I've had experience I grind more and have learned bank roll management. I don't straight bet favorites of more than -180 usually as it's a losing proposition. I love dogs, especially in tennisComment -
no fitguy, I was being a dick. I don't like the way flipside has been acting, if he tones it down with the overall negative "im better than matt" attitude then we wont have a problem. plus he called me a 'fagot' in the other thread and words hurtComment -
I don't have a problem with you or matt, although he's been awful lately, we've all been there. I was steaming earlier, imagine if you singled out 1 play and only played that for the whole day and Kevin Anderson melted down on you like that. That was disgusting, and it didn't help that Matt kept betting Anderson live. Although he has nothing to do with the outcome of the match it was still frustrating mentally watching Anderson do what he did. End of storyComment -
8/9:
Tsonga -149 vs DimitrovComment -
why tsonga?Comment -
Tsongas motivated, took out Djok and Murray. Looks like he's got something to prove, might as well ship the tourney vs Fed. I've watched every Dimi match and he's looked DECENT at best, had money on him vs Young, and Robredo and he looked abysmal on serve. He looked a little better today but he's lucky Anderson wilted away under pressure. Did you watch that match? Plus he's played 3, 3 setters in a row and looked beat up at the end vs Anderson, plus somethng happened with his ankle. Assuming he's fine, he's still gotta be worn out. How do you go 3 sets vs Young, Robredo and Anderson in the first place? Tsongas played the obvious better competition and his serve has looked great as well.Comment -
I don't like Tsonga at that price. He's still a clown at heart. You might consider taking a day off after a bad loss. The posters on this site who make the most money are the ones who are a little more selective.Comment -
That was a bad loss but it was one loss and doesn't change my perception of what I've seen on court. In my mind I was right about fading Dimi and going with Anderson and I think I was still right, just bad result. I can't control Anderson gifting Dimi the 2nd set then gifting him a break up 40-15 for the match, nor not winning it serving for the match in the tie breaker. Good read by me, bad result.
Tsonga should roll Dimi and I'm more confident about that than I was with AndersonComment -
Plus like I've said before, I wager the same amount on all my bets, that loss didn't hurt me bad at all. Not like I dropped a 10 unit bomb on it. I'm still hot, 1 loss won't change that. And as you can see I think I'm very selective, I played 1 match, 2 the day before.Comment -
sold me...this is an in-form tsonga we're talking about here...if it were an in-form monfils u were deciding to ride for one more (or if it were the real fed--and not just this "prone to diaper rash" version--that he's up against) i'd be less prone to lemming-walk with you
put me down for one
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Well that was easy. Dimitrov lost for every reason that I said he would. Serve sucked, made bad decisions at the net, fatigue was a huge factor and Tsongas serve was on fire.
Dimitrovs played poorly the whole tournament, just skated by, Kevin should have closed him out a billion times but is mentally weak. Will look to fade Grigor in the near tournaments.
Tsonga -149 vs DimitrovComment -
Any read on the fed/Lopez?Comment -
Overall Record: 24W-12L-0T
7/28: 3-0
Vesely- 143 vs Struff
Ginepri +111 Vs Falla
Townsend(WTA) -111 Vs Georges
7/29: 1-2
Melzer +137 vs Andujar
Cibulkova vs Mugu o20.5
Kavcic +101 vs Becker
7/30: 0-2
Becker -111 vs Giraldo
Shelby Rogers -164 vs Erakovic
7/31: 4-0
Thiem -132 vs Vesely
S. Johnson +108 vs Karlovic
Pospisil-Berdych U21.5 +101
V. Williams +104 vs Azarenka
8/1: 3-0
Dominic Thiem -152 vs Granollers
Dominic Thiem -126 vs Juan Monaco
Petkovic +136 vs V.Williams
8/2: 2-2
Thiem -132 vs Goffin
Pospisil -128 vs Giraldo
Erakovic +132
Pospisil vs Gasquet O22.5
8/3: 2-1
Raonic/Posp O22.5
Kerber/Williams O19.5
Serena Williams -140 LIVE BET
8/4: 1-2
Lisicki +120 vs Errani
Kamke -130vs Smyzcek
Isner +105 LIVE vs Dodig
8/5: 3-0
Kyrgios +120 vs Giraldo
Monfils -112 vs Stepanek
Keys +145 vs Kuznetsova
8/6:
8/6: 2-2
Kyrgios/Murray 021.5
Mugu/Pova o19.5
Jack Sock +351 vs Raonic HALF UNIT
Jack Sock/Raonic o22.5
8/7: 2-0
Venus Williams +140
Berydch/Lopez o22.5
8/8: 0-1
Kevin Anderson +160vs Dimitrov
8/9: 1-0
Tsonga -149 vs Dimitrov
Updated RecordComment -
Will be on Venus tomorrow pending lineComment -
8/10:
V. Williams +110 vs RadwanskaComment -
Venus = Loser
Adding:
Fed-Tsonga o23Comment -
Overall Record: 25W-13L-0T
7/28: 3-0
Vesely- 143 vs Struff
Ginepri +111 Vs Falla
Townsend(WTA) -111 Vs Georges
7/29: 1-2
Melzer +137 vs Andujar
Cibulkova vs Mugu o20.5
Kavcic +101 vs Becker
7/30: 0-2
Becker -111 vs Giraldo
Shelby Rogers -164 vs Erakovic
7/31: 4-0
Thiem -132 vs Vesely
S. Johnson +108 vs Karlovic
Pospisil-Berdych U21.5 +101
V. Williams +104 vs Azarenka
8/1: 3-0
Dominic Thiem -152 vs Granollers
Dominic Thiem -126 vs Juan Monaco
Petkovic +136 vs V.Williams
8/2: 2-2
Thiem -132 vs Goffin
Pospisil -128 vs Giraldo
Erakovic +132
Pospisil vs Gasquet O22.5
8/3: 2-1
Raonic/Posp O22.5
Kerber/Williams O19.5
Serena Williams -140 LIVE BET
8/4: 1-2
Lisicki +120 vs Errani
Kamke -130vs Smyzcek
Isner +105 LIVE vs Dodig
8/5: 3-0
Kyrgios +120 vs Giraldo
Monfils -112 vs Stepanek
Keys +145 vs Kuznetsova
8/6:
8/6: 2-2
Kyrgios/Murray 021.5
Mugu/Pova o19.5
Jack Sock +351 vs Raonic HALF UNIT
Jack Sock/Raonic o22.5
8/7: 2-0
Venus Williams +140
Berydch/Lopez o22.5
8/8: 0-1
Kevin Anderson +160vs Dimitrov
8/9: 1-0
Tsonga -149 vs Dimitrov
8/10: 1-1
V. Williams +110 vs Radwanska
Fed-Tsonga o23Comment -
8/11:
Jack Sock +130 vs Robredo
Madison Keys -125 vs Cornet
Good luck
Comment -
Where is that line on Anderson/Isner and what are the odds. Looks way too low..Comment -
He meant 25 and a half...Comment -
8/11:
Jack Sock +130 vs Robredo
Madison Keys -125 vs Cornet
Just these 2 for nowComment -
8/11:
Jack Sock +130 vs Robredo
Have really liked Jacks game lately. His serve has been great and hes been good in long rallys as well. Got unlucky in Canada vs Raonic who beat him in both tie breaks in the 2nd and 3rd set. He was never broken in the match but still lost. Robredo just played Dimitrov but contrary to everyones belief Grigor was not that great in that tournament. Dimi served very poorly vs Robredo, that match should have never gone the distance if Dimi was on his A game. Robredo is a good hard courter but I just like the youth, motivation, home crowd factor combined with a well rested Sock to take this one at + money.
Madison Keys -125 vs Cornet
Keys is a player I always have my eye on when she is listed as a short favorite or small dog. Keys was still getting back into the swing of things in Montreal since returning from injury at Wimbledon. She looked good but Lisicki got the best of her in 3 sets. Lisicki was playing very well that tournament, eventually losing to the tournament winner in Radwanska. Cornet on the other hand looked decent vs Lauren Davis and absolutely putrid vs an injured Azarenka. She was broken at will and her serve was utterly disgusting in that match. Keys will take advantage of Cornets weak serve in this one.
Adding:
Isner -156
Probably a big public play, but I just don't see him losing. Anderson just gifted Dimitrov that match a couple days ago in Canada and don't know how he could mentally bounce back into action vs a well rested Isner. Isner has lost in the first round the last 2 tournaments and I'm willing to bet he doesn't do it 3 times in a row.Comment
Gordon Hayward looks pretty cute in that pic btw
