Wimbledon women round 1 discussion

[Honeybadger44]

I kinda got this crazy idea to make a comment, on every single Wimbledon match in the first round. Idea behind it, is to get an argumented debate going on. Something like brainstorming. Because good picks will not fall from the sky, into your lap. You have to work for it.

So, lets get it started. (all the lines, from Pinnacle)

Kimiko Date Krum-Ekaterina Makarova (+5 and u/o20)
Makarova has very decent record on grass, and also few titles, if I am not mistakes. Still, Date Krumm can be very dangerous on grass. She is very tricky to play against. Taking those groundstrokes on the rise, not allowing opponent much time for aticipation on the defense. Also pretty good at the net. Initial lean: over 20

Misaki Doi-Elina Svitolina (+4 and u/o20.5)
Hm... Asian player usualy do well on grass, but Doi hasn't show much on the tour, for quite some time now. Svitolina's favorite surface is grass. her ball striking is pretty good and she starts to feel it, she is hard to stop. Initial lean: Svitolina -4

Polona Hercog-Paula Ormaechea (-2.5 and u/o21.5)
Polona has improved her serve in past few seasons, but aside from that, I don't see her doing very well on grass courts. Ormaechea is underrated on faster courts. Initial lean: over 21.5

Ana Konjuh-Marina Erakovic (+2.5 and u/o21.5)
Haven't heard much about Konjuh, since that upset win in Auckland against Vinci. It is obvious that girl has talent, but the question is where her form is at the moment. Grass is the favorite surface for Marina Erakovic and it is time to show it. But since I don't trust Marina at all, I think that the under is the best play here. She might get the job done, as she should. Or dissapoint completely. Initial lean: under 21.5

Johana Konta-Shuai Peng (-2 and u/o 21.5)
Interesting one. Konta played some decent tennis sicne the begining of the grass season. But should she really be the favorite here? Peng is not in the best form at the moment, but I still think she has the game for the grass. Expecting a good battle. Initial lean: over 21.5

Alla Kudryavtseva-Barbora Zahlavova Strycova (+4 and u/o21)
Zahlavova might be slightly overrated because of those finals in Birmingham. Kudryavtseva is very decent player on grass. Good serve. Flat groundstrokes. It should be an interesting one. Initial lean: over 21 games

Sloane Stephens-Maria Kirilenko (-5 and u/o 19.5)
Grand slams usualy bring the best out of Stephens. She also played well in Birmingham. Kirilenko was able to perform well on grass in the past, but her performance in Hertogenbosch was an indicator, that she is currently in pretty poor form. There is not much value, backing Stephens here, but I still think it is better choice then Kirilenko. Initial lean: Stephens 2-0

Elena Vesnina-Patricia Mayr Achleitner (-6 and u/o 18.5)
Vesnina might be a solid grass court player, but the line seems bit to high. Mayr is not such a scrub. Initial lean: over 18.5

Yanina Wickmayer-Samantha Stosur (+4.5 and u/o19.5)
I am in the dark here. You never know what to expect from Stosur. Despite having some serious weapons for the grass courts, she slipped so many teams, in the early rounds of Wimbledon. I would like to fade her in this spot, but I am not sure if Wickmayer can do it. Oh well... Initial lean: Wickmayer +4.5


Rest of the comments, coming later. Now it's your turn guys. What am I missing? Where I went wrong?

[RobRifle]

Kimiko Date Krum-Ekaterina Makarova (+5 and u/o20)
Makarova has very decent record on grass, and also few titles, if I am not mistakes. Still, Date Krumm can be very dangerous on grass. She is very tricky to play against. Taking those groundstrokes on the rise, not allowing opponent much time for aticipation on the defense. Also pretty good at the net. Initial lean: over 20

Date Krumm+5 here for me if I had to choose

Misaki Doi-Elina Svitolina (+4 and u/o20.5)
Hm... Asian player usualy do well on grass, but Doi hasn't show much on the tour, for quite some time now. Svitolina's favorite surface is grass. her ball striking is pretty good and she starts to feel it, she is hard to stop. Initial lean: Svitolina -4

Svito-4 my take. Agree completely

Polona Hercog-Paula Ormaechea (-2.5 and u/o21.5)
Polona has improved her serve in past few seasons, but aside from that, I don't see her doing very well on grass courts. Ormaechea is underrated on faster courts. Initial lean: over 21.5

Could see Ormachea pull the upset here

Ana Konjuh-Marina Erakovic (+2.5 and u/o21.5)
Haven't heard much about Konjuh, since that upset win in Auckland against Vinci. It is obvious that girl has talent, but the question is where her form is at the moment. Grass is the favorite surface for Marina Erakovic and it is time to show it. But since I don't trust Marina at all, I think that the under is the best play here. She might get the job done, as she should. Or dissapoint completely. Initial lean: under 21.5

Konjuh decent ITF player. Don't think Erakovic will shoot her off the court

Johana Konta-Shuai Peng (-2 and u/o 21.5)
Interesting one. Konta played some decent tennis sicne the begining of the grass season. But should she really be the favorite here? Peng is not in the best form at the moment, but I still think she has the game for the grass. Expecting a good battle. Initial lean: over 21.5

Konta win for me. Still questioning myself whether it is worth to invest 2 units

Alla Kudryavtseva-Barbora Zahlavova Strycova (+4 and u/o21)
Zahlavova might be slightly overrated because of those finals in Birmingham. Kudryavtseva is very decent player on grass. Good serve. Flat groundstrokes. It should be an interesting one. Initial lean: over 21 games

Kudryavtseva could of course take a set here. See BZS a bit overrated as well. Wasn't too impressed when I saw her play. Over should be goof choice (or AK+4)

Sloane Stephens-Maria Kirilenko (-5 and u/o 19.5)
Grand slams usualy bring the best out of Stephens. She also played well in Birmingham. Kirilenko was able to perform well on grass in the past, but her performance in Hertogenbosch was an indicator, that she is currently in pretty poor form. There is not much value, backing Stephens here, but I still think it is better choice then Kirilenko. Initial lean: Stephens 2-0

Sloane easy. not a big fan of her but Kiri is done

Elena Vesnina-Patricia Mayr Achleitner (-6 and u/o 18.5)
Vesnina might be a solid grass court player, but the line seems bit to high. Mayr is not such a scrub. Initial lean: over 18.5

don't know here. no opinion

Yanina Wickmayer-Samantha Stosur (+4.5 and u/o19.5)
I am in the dark here. You never know what to expect from Stosur. Despite having some serious weapons for the grass courts, she slipped so many teams, in the early rounds of Wimbledon. I would like to fade her in this spot, but I am not sure if Wickmayer can do it. Oh well... Initial lean: Wickmayer +4.5

Stosur-4.5 when I would have to choose. Wickmayer is a big choker imo

Rest of the comments, coming later. Now it's your turn guys. What am I missing? Where I went wrong?

just my 2 cents

[Honeybadger44]

Victoria Azarenka-Mirjana Lucic Baroni (-6 and u/o19)
What I hate about Lucic is that there is absolutley no fightback from her, when things doesn't go, the way she imagined. Vika might be bit rusty, but I still have enough faith in her, to beat this spread. Initial lean: Azarenka -6

Lauren Davis-Alysa Kleybanova (-4 and u/o20.5)
Hm. Davis did quite well in past two weeks, but I find her bit overrated here. Kleybanova is in big troubles, if you can force her to run a lot, but when she is able to done most of the job with her hitting, she can be very dangerous. Initial lean: Kleybanova +4 possible upset.

Vania King-Yvone Meusburger (-1 and u/o21.5)
King retired against Vandeweghe in Hertogenbosch, so her status is questonable. But, if she is ready to go, I favor her over Meusburger, which doesn't have the game for grass courts. initial lean: King -1

Johanna Larsson-Bojana Jovanovski (+2.5 and u/o21)
Larsson has better serve and the movement, while Jovanovski has the groundstrokes, which are more flat and suits the grass courts better. Pretty evened up matchup. Maybe small value with the underdog. Initial lean: Larsson +2.5

Kurumi Nara-Anna Lenna Friedsam (-2.5 and u/o21.5)
I saw part of the match between Friedsam and Kerber in Nunberg. If I can recall it correctly, we are talking about the player, who is putting a lot of faith in her ball striking abilities. But, her ranking is telling to me that she is missing more often, then playing those shots well. Nara doesn't have the big weapons for the grass, but she is a smart player and overall better then Friedsam. Initial lean: Nara -2.5

Lucie Safarova-Julia Goerges (-3.5 and u/o21.5)
Both girls are big hitters. Still, I think that Lucie gets this one. She is more consistant server. Being a lefty, she can attack Goerges' backhand without problems. And also, despite her big hitting, Julia does not preffer grass courts, because of the low bounce of the ball.

M-T Torro Flor-Venus Williams (+5.5 and u/o19.5)
Venus obviously have much more experiance on grass courts then young spanish player. But, as much as I would like to back Williams in this spot, I just cannot do it, with such huge line. Torro Flor can do some mean hitting of her own. Initial lean: over 19.5

[RobRifle]

Victoria Azarenka-Mirjana Lucic Baroni (-6 and u/o19)
What I hate about Lucic is that there is absolutley no fightback from her, when things doesn't go, the way she imagined. Vika might be bit rusty, but I still have enough faith in her, to beat this spread. Initial lean: Azarenka -6Firs

First set close, second set easy. sth like 7-6 6-1 // 6-4 6-2. Spread seems perfectly set to me

Lauren Davis-Alysa Kleybanova (-4 and u/o20.5)
Hm. Davis did quite well in past two weeks, but I find her bit overrated here. Kleybanova is in big troubles, if you can force her to run a lot, but when she is able to done most of the job with her hitting, she can be very dangerous. Initial lean: Kleybanova +4 possible upset.

don't know here. Davis had some good fights last week. Impressed me although I am not convinced of her skills

Vania King-Yvone Meusburger (-1 and u/o21.5)
King retired against Vandeweghe in Hertogenbosch, so her status is questonable. But, if she is ready to go, I favor her over Meusburger, which doesn't have the game for grass courts. initial lean: King -1

100% agree. King if fit

Johanna Larsson-Bojana Jovanovski (+2.5 and u/o21)
Larsson has better serve and the movement, while Jovanovski has the groundstrokes, which are more flat and suits the grass courts better. Pretty evened up matchup. Maybe small value with the underdog. Initial lean: Larsson +2.5

coin flip here. so I would take better odds and got with Larsson if I had to

Kurumi Nara-Anna Lenna Friedsam (-2.5 and u/o21.5)
I saw part of the match between Friedsam and Kerber in Nunberg. If I can recall it correctly, we are talking about the player, who is putting a lot of faith in her ball striking abilities. But, her ranking is telling to me that she is missing more often, then playing those shots well. Nara doesn't have the big weapons for the grass, but she is a smart player and overall better then Friedsam. Initial lean: Nara -2.5

Despite being German never saw Friedsam play. No opinion here

Lucie Safarova-Julia Goerges (-3.5 and u/o21.5)
Both girls are big hitters. Still, I think that Lucie gets this one. She is more consistant server. Being a lefty, she can attack Goerges' backhand without problems. And also, despite her big hitting, Julia does not preffer grass courts, because of the low bounce of the ball.

Safarova easy, really no doubt here

M-T Torro Flor-Venus Williams (+5.5 and u/o19.5)
Venus obviously have much more experiance on grass courts then young spanish player. But, as much as I would like to back Williams in this spot, I just cannot do it, with such huge line. Torro Flor can do some mean hitting of her own. Initial lean: over 19.5

line well set

my thoughts

[Honeybadger44]

Jana Cepelova-Flavia Pennetta (+5 and u/o19.5)
Cepelova hasn't shown anything since Charleston, which was almost 3 months ago. Can she find the way out of the crisis here? Probably not. This is not the spot, for pickingup the pieces. She is playing on a unique surface, against a very experianced and quality opponent. Initial lean: Pennetta -5

Paula Kania-Li Na (+7 and u/o17)
I have never seen Kania play, so I don't have much to say about this one. Li Na is coming to Wimbledon with no matches on grass, this season. Initial lean: over 17 games

Mona Barthel-Romina Oprandi (-5.5 and u/o19.5)
Tough one. Mona is on a roll, while Oprandi's best surface is clay, by far. Line is pretty spot on, but I'll go with a player with a hot hand and some grass court matches in past few weeks. Initial lean: under 19.5

Naomi Broady-Timea Babos (+3.5 and u/o21)
Don't know what Babos did to deserve so much respect here. Her game is completely wild. She is not holding back on any of her shots. She can be dangerous when she is cleaning the lines, but her ranking is telling us that she is mostly missing the target. Initial lean: Broady +3.5

Monica Niculescu-Alison Van Uytvanck (-2.5 and u/o21)
van Uytvanck has been farily present on the tour, this season. Still, I didn't have the opportunity to see any of her matches. But, what I do know, is that, she is not going to have an easy task tommorow. Niculescu is very tricky player. Her slice forehend will give good results, skiding through the grass courts, while her skills at the net are not that bad either. Initial lean: Niculescu -2.5

Stefanie Voegele-Jarmila Gajdosova (+2.5 and u/o21.5)
Similar type of players. Solid serve, relying on their ball striking... Neither very good. Initial lean: over 21.5 games

Coco Vandeweghe-Garbine Muguruza (+1.5 and u/o22)
Overreaction to Vandeweghe's win in Hertogenbosch over Muguruza and also the trophy in the end. Muguruza will definitely put more fight into this one and we are getting some nice value at these odds. Initial lean: Muguruza ML

[RobRifle]

Mona Barthel-Romina Oprandi (-5.5 and u/o19.5)
Tough one. Mona is on a roll, while Oprandi's best surface is clay, by far. Line is pretty spot on, but I'll go with a player with a hot hand and some grass court matches in past few weeks. Initial lean: under 19.5

Mona has some great strokes, so when she is on her play is really amazing but she is so incosistent and error-prone. Wouldn't really say she is on a roll but still will be enough for a 2-0 win. As she will waste some games with 4 UE's in a row I am not sure about the -5.5


Monica Niculescu-Alison Van Uytvanck (-2.5 and u/o21)
van Uytvanck has been farily present on the tour, this season. Still, I didn't have the opportunity to see any of her matches. But, what I do know, is that, she is not going to have an easy task tommorow. Niculescu is very tricky player. Her slice forehend will give good results, skiding through the grass courts, while her skills at the net are not that bad either. Initial lean: Niculescu -2.5

I also think Niculescu's style of play should fit grass courts but results don't back that opinion. Still lean towards her

Stefanie Voegele-Jarmila Gajdosova (+2.5 and u/o21.5)
Similar type of players. Solid serve, relying on their ball striking... Neither very good. Initial lean: over 21.5 games

Gajdasova here for me

Coco Vandeweghe-Garbine Muguruza (+1.5 and u/o22)
Overreaction to Vandeweghe's win in Hertogenbosch over Muguruza and also the trophy in the end. Muguruza will definitely put more fight into this one and we are getting some nice value at these odds. Initial lean: Muguruza ML

Got a @2.75 ML earlier for Coco which I took as I knew odds will move towards her. I also favour Mugu. Her play is amazing, not at all typical spanish See it 60:40 Mugu so I still have to decide what to do with my open bet.

took out a few games here where I really had no point

[Honeybadger44]

Sara Errani-Caroline Garcia (-1.5 and u/o21)
Garcia in a free fall. Despite Errani's game being far from perfect for the grass courts, she is still very tough competitior and when she smells the weakness, she will take adventage of it. Caroline is very weak at the moment. Initial lean: Errani -1.5

Anett Kontaveit-Casey Dellacqua (+4 and u/o21)
Dellacqua can play well on grass courts. She was in the semis of Birmingham recently. I have never watched Kontaveit. But already the fact that books set her that close to Dellacqua, is telling me that this girl might be dangerous. initial lean: over 21

Svetlana Kuznetsova-Michelle Larcher de Brito (-3.5 and u/o21.5)
Portugese playerwas a big talent, but never really managed to make a proper breakthrough. She shows up in these grass tournaments and mostly dissapear soon after. Despite doing fairly well ont his surface in past, I don't see her challenging Kuznetsova here. Initial lean: Kuznetsova -3.5

Petra Kvitova-Andrea Hlavackova (-5.5 and u/o19)
Hlavackova can only play on faster surfaces. She trys to overpower her opponents, but I that will be impossible against Kvitova. Initial lean: Kvitova -5.5

Cristian Andreea Mitu-Agnieszka Radwanska (+7.5 and u/o17)
One thing is when I have never seen a player in a match. Completely another thing is when I haven't even heard od that player. Mitu is complete unknown to me. 23 year of age, ranked outside top 200, favorite surface clay... Taking on Aga on grass looks like a mission impossible. When she starts to work with his slices and drop shots, Mitu will be doomed. Initial lean: under 17 games

Tsvetana Pironkova-Varvara Lepchenko (-3.5 and u/o21)
Both girls have some qualities, but Pironkova brings her A-game, every time when she plays on grass. Her flat , low groundstrokes are causeing a lot of damage. Initial lean: Pironkova -3.5

Tereza Smitkova-Su Wei Hsieh (+4 adn u/o20.5)
Don't know nothing about Smitkova. Hsieh has a lot of experiance, but imho, lacks some quality, to be trusted with covering such a big line. Initial line: over 20.5

Caroline Wozniacki-Shahar Peer (-6.5 and u/o18)
Peer is a trys to win the matches from the baseline. That is extremly difficult to do against Wozniacki. Especially when she is in form. Initial lean: under 18 games

Aleksandra Wozniak-Dominika Cibulkova (+3 and u/o21)
Cibulkova didn't have very good results recently. It was quite a drop in form, comparing to the start of the season. Well, that caused value to slowly but steadily shift on her side. Wozniak had few good matches recently, where she stroke the ball well, but she will have to do so much more, in order to get past Cibulkova here. Initial lean: Cibulkova -3

[RobRifle]

Sara Errani-Caroline Garcia (-1.5 and u/o21)
Garcia in a free fall. Despite Errani's game being far from perfect for the grass courts, she is still very tough competitior and when she smells the weakness, she will take adventage of it. Caroline is very weak at the moment. Initial lean: Errani -1.5

over for me if I had to bet

Anett Kontaveit-Casey Dellacqua (+4 and u/o21)
Dellacqua can play well on grass courts. She was in the semis of Birmingham recently. I have never watched Kontaveit. But already the fact that books set her that close to Dellacqua, is telling me that this girl might be dangerous. initial lean: over 21

Kontaveit succesful on ITF level. But this is not ITF but the big stage. Dellacqua-4

Svetlana Kuznetsova-Michelle Larcher de Brito (-3.5 and u/o21.5)
Portugese playerwas a big talent, but never really managed to make a proper breakthrough. She shows up in these grass tournaments and mostly dissapear soon after. Despite doing fairly well ont his surface in past, I don't see her challenging Kuznetsova here. Initial lean: Kuznetsova -3.5

Go with the proven player here as well, Kusz -3.5

Petra Kvitova-Andrea Hlavackova (-5.5 and u/o19)
Hlavackova can only play on faster surfaces. She trys to overpower her opponents, but I that will be impossible against Kvitova. Initial lean: Kvitova -5.5

Kvitova 2-0 the only bet I could imagine here

Cristian Andreea Mitu-Agnieszka Radwanska (+7.5 and u/o17)
One thing is when I have never seen a player in a match. Completely another thing is when I haven't even heard od that player. Mitu is complete unknown to me. 23 year of age, ranked outside top 200, favorite surface clay... Taking on Aga on grass looks like a mission impossible. When she starts to work with his slices and drop shots, Mitu will be doomed. Initial lean: under 17 games

Agnieszka tends to start slow sometimes so 7.5 is hard to cover. Prefer under also as it is basically a 0.5 better HC

Tsvetana Pironkova-Varvara Lepchenko (-3.5 and u/o21)
Both girls have some qualities, but Pironkova brings her A-game, every time when she plays on grass. Her flat , low groundstrokes are causeing a lot of damage. Initial lean: Pironkova -3.5

Piro always great at wimbledon so no reason to lay her. Piro-3.5

Caroline Wozniacki-Shahar Peer (-6.5 and u/o18)
Peer is a trys to win the matches from the baseline. That is extremly difficult to do against Wozniacki. Especially when she is in form. Initial lean: under 18 games

Not a big fan of Rorys Ex but this one she will win easily. Under best bet

Aleksandra Wozniak-Dominika Cibulkova (+3 and u/o21)
Cibulkova didn't have very good results recently. It was quite a drop in form, comparing to the start of the season. Well, that caused value to slowly but steadily shift on her side. Wozniak had few good matches recently, where she stroke the ball well, but she will have to do so much more, in order to get past Cibulkova here. Initial lean: Cibulkova -3

OVer and even an upset possible here. Cibulkova seems to struggle recently

last one...time to go to bed

[Marillion]

I like Flipkens at 1.57 over Paszek. Attacking game, nice slices, good on grass.

[Honeybadger44]

Serena Williams-Chanelle Scheepers (-7.5 and u/o16.5)
With these big lines you never know. It depends a lot, how the favorite feels that day. If they start slow, dog can cover, but then also, if they decided to not lose too much time on the court, they will probably do it in 6-2, 6-0 fashion. Considering it is only 2nd grass court match of the season for Serena, and that she can have bit of a "sleepy" attitude on the court, I am leaning to Chanelle covering. Initial lean: over 16.5 games

Zarina Diyas-Carla Suarez Navarro (+4 and u/o20.5)
Carla retired fromt he tournament in Hertogenbosch, last week, because of the injury. So, ther was a question, how fit she is at the moment. Her win 6-2, 6-1 in first round against Zhang, obviously provided an anwser to that quiestion. Still, grass courts are obviously her least favorite surface, where her ability for building points can be distrubed, if there is a good hitter on the other side of the net. Diyas is a solid server and a good ball striker, so... Initial lean: over 20.5 games

Lourdes Dominguez Lino-Kirsten Flipkes (+5.5 and u/o19)
Spanish player is a typiacl clay court specilist, which has almost nothing to offer on grass courts. How she got to the 2nd round? Well, she played Petra Martic in first round, which is probably considering retiring from tennis at this point. That is how awfull she is right now. Too bad to see such a talent waisted. Anyway, as I was saying, Lino Dominguez has nothing to offer on grass, while Flipkens' game is perfectly built for it. Althought it is hard to lay so many games with her, because she has big mental lapses sometimes, that is the only way to go, in this one. Initial lean: Flipkens -5.5

Ana Ivanovic-Jie Zheng (-5 and u/o19.5)
I am affraid that for Zheng, it can happen the same, as in the finals of Hertogenboshc, where Vandeweghe simply overpowered her. Still, I think that with this line, she is not getting enough respect for her very good performances on grass. Value with the dog. Initial lean: Zheng +5

Yaroslava Shvedova-Kaia Kanepi (0 and u/o22)
This is a tough one. Kanepi is a very streaky player. It seemed like she was in big crisis, before the Wimbledon, but then she easily defeated Jelena Jankovic in first round, which probably gave her big confidence boost. Combining that with her history on grass, she is a serious threat in this match. Shvedova has a big serve, powerful groundstrokes, but also a lot of ups and downs in her game. Odds seem like pretty much spot one. Expecting a close one here. Initial lean: over 22

[Honeybadger44]

Andrea Petkovic-Irina Begu (-5.5 and u/o19.5)
To be honest, I haven't seen much of Begu's matches lately, but if I am not mistaken, she feels most comfortable on the clay courts. I am just going to trust Petko to pull this one of without much drama. She can do it. Initial lean: under 19.5

Silvia Soler Espinosa-Eugenia Bouchard (+6 and u/o18)
Of course, Genie is imho, one of the favorites to go all the way, but the line might be bit high here, against a player, with a pretty decent serve and net coverage abilities... Initial lean: over 18 games

Angelique Kerber-Heather Watson (-4 and u/o21)
Reverse line movement. Seems like sharp money is coming in on Heather Watson. I am not very surprised to see that happen, considering that you could get her even above @4 at the opening odds. She played well last few weeks. She knows this surface really well. Centre courts will be packed with her supporters and she will be super motivated. Still, Kerber is a tough opponent. You have to play to perfection, to break her defense, so I expect a lot of back and forth going on in this match and third set to decide the winner. Initial lean: over 21 games.

klara Koukalova-Madison Keys (+4.5 and u/o20.5)
For me, this is one is tougher, then it might seem. Of course, looking at Keys' recent matches, she is obviously able to blow anybody of the court, when she has a good day. But we have to take into consideration, that she is still a teenager, which will have ups and downs in her game. Koukalova, as experianced player could find ways, to avoid Keys' biggest weapons and force her to come out of her comfort zone, but we will see. One thing is clear. She needs perfect serving performance to even stay close in this one. serve not being her strongest point, she could get stopmed her. Initial lean: Keys -4.5

Karolina Pliskova-Sabine Lisicki (+4 and u/o21)
There is no doubt that Lisicki can play some great tennis on grass. But, looking at here results this season, she is obviously not at her best at the moment and I feel she is being bit overrated in this spot. Pliskova has a big serve and big groundies. Don't know why she should be such big underdog here. Initial lean: Pliskova +4 and ML

Alison Riske-Camila Giorgi (+1 and u/o22)
I like Giorgi at these odds. Both girls have similar style. But I give the edge to Giorgi, with a more aggressive game, which will put Riske into defensive position, where she is not most comfortable at. Also, Riske's second serve is a liabilty, which Giorgi will take adventage of, with her aggresive returning. Inital lean: Giorgi ML

[Honeybadger44]

Donna Vekic-Vera Zvonareva (-4.5 and u/o20.5)
I don't knwo what is happening with the career of Zvonareva. She seems like some semi-pro player, appearing at the tournament, every now and then... Obviously, Vekic should be favored here, as she is better player + she can play some good tennis on grass. But, careful with this one. Laying so many games, with a young player, which takes a lot of risk in her game, can be dagnerous. Initial lean: Vekic -4.5

Timea Bacsinszky-Maria Sharapova (+6.5 and u/o18)
I haven't seen a lot of Bacsinszky matches lately, but she played well, if we look at some results, so she might surprise here and keep this one close. Initial lean: over 18 games

Belinda Bencic-Victoria Duval (-2.5 and u/o21.5)
Bencic already managed to put her name on the map and is already considered as one of the biggest talents of the womens game. Duval is not quite there yet, but she has been performing on a very decent level in past couple of weeks and I think she is better on grass at the moment, then bencic. Initial lean: Duval +2.5

Simona Halep-Lesya Tsurenko (-7 and u/o17)
Even though Halep is a great player, I think she still haven't done enough on grass courts, to get so much respect with the odds makers. Initial lean: over 17 games.

[Honeybadger44]

Caroline Garcia-Ekatarina Makarova (+3.5 and u/o21.5)
I got burned in the previous round, going against Garcia, when she played against Lepchenko. She played really well in the crucial points of the match, mostly winning them and that decided the winner in the end. But, I am still not completely sure, about her game on grass. Makarova will be a true test, because she always has good results on this surface. Initial lean: Makarova -3.5

Caroline Garcia-Ana Konjuh (-4.5 and u/o20)
Konjuh is only 16 years old, but already a very solid player. I was not that surprised by her wins in first two rounds. She came in, with coupld of wins under her belt, into the match against Erakovic and that helped her to win, while with Wickmayer you never know. One day she plays really well and on the other day, she doesn't... This is a big result for Konjuh, but Woz could be a too tough challenge, for a young player. Carline is a player which forces you to play 10+ quality shots, to win single point. That might be little bit too much for 16-year old Croatian. Initial lean: Woz -4.5

Shuai Peng-Lauren Davis (+2 and u/o22)
I was talking throughout entire grass court season, that Peng should do well on this surface. Prior to Wimbledon, she failed to confirm that theory, but here she stepped up and is playing really well. Davis is a solid young player, but value is with Peng in this spot. Initial lean: Peng +2

Barbora Zahlavova Strycova-Li Na (+5.5 and u/o19.5)
BZS might not be in the same class with the top girls, but on gras courts, that gap is definitely smaller. She plays well on this surface and she is in form. Initial lean: over 19.5

[Honeybadger44]

Bojana Jovanovski-Tereza Smitkova (-3 and u/o21)
Everybody is talking about Jovanovski's big win against Azarenka. But, Smitkova also had a big win. Maybe it was not against such a big name, but the way Vandeweghe played on grass, in past couple of weeks, that win might be even in the same level of upsets, with Jovanovski's win. Because of that, I think that the value is with the dog. Initial lean: over 21 games

Michelle Larcher de Brito-Agnieszka Radwanska (+5.5 and u/o19)
Don't know why, but I like the upset here. Radwanska is very smart player, but powerful hitter on grass is always dangerous. It might be the spot, for Larcher de Brito, to finally confirm her talent. Initial lean: Larcher de Brito ML

Petra Kvitova-Venus Williams (-3 and u/o22.5)
Maybe a bit too high of a u/o line, for a WTA match. Two big hitters involved. The one which is going to "feel it" more, today, is going to win. It might as well do it in straight sets. Initial lean: under 22.5

Lucie Safarova-Dominika Cibulkova (+1.5 and u/o22.5)
This is a tough one. For sure, Safarova has a better serve and a murdering forehand, but Cibulkova will refuse to go away and her movement will put her in better position for the shots, then Safarova, which does most of the job, with her arm. Initial lean: Cibulkova ML