federer vs falla

kenz · 06-14-14, 03:02 PM

Falla 2-0

JK of course

I watched Falla every game this week. He is very ambitious. Every set he played was tight and he fought, he deserved to be in final. But I wont bet on this game, have no idea if Federer will cruise or have a harder time.
BOL

matt1216 · 06-14-14, 03:38 PM

Falla has been solid but I get a bit nervous as he makes a solid serve and volley but he also makes a bunch of boneheaded forehand errors.... If kohl was on with his backhand at all I think he wins in 2 sets no problem. Unless there's a deal beforhand I don't see Falla winning a set here.

baconbets · 06-14-14, 07:15 PM

he doesn't need to win a set for +4.5 or over 20.5, that part of the point. if i thought he would win a set, then +1.5 sets +185 or over 2.5 sets +230 would be more attractive. +4.5 and over 20.5 cover a good amount of federer 2-0 outcomes, whereas federer 2-0 itself is -250. no value there.

matt1216 · 06-14-14, 07:53 PM

Dude if he loses serve atleast 1 time in either set your +4.5 is a loss. Kohl had Falla @ Duece most of this morning and his backhand was shit. Federer's back hand is miles better. I think Falla gets smoked here

SirtySree · 06-14-14, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Dude if he loses serve atleast 1 time in either set your +4.5 is a loss. Kohl had Falla @ Duece most of this morning and his backhand was shit. Federer's back hand is miles better. I think Falla gets smoked here

Not true. If u serve first and get broken once in each set, u lose 6-4 6-4 meaning +4.5 wins.

A factor which I've mentioned in the past is that finals and even semi-finals at times result in closer results then if the same two player played in earlier rounds.

baconbets · 06-14-14, 08:23 PM

fed now down to -1600 from -900 on my book. hopefully the point spread will move as well.