Qualifying Matches - The Hidden Value - "What's Yours?" Thread.

[JC1186]

There was discussion earlier about Challenger Matches and punters/bookies getting the odds wrong.

Well imo Qualifying matches are even better. The primary reason is this - They're much more motivated to make the main draw due to the prize money, compared to the poorly paid prize money in most Challenger tournaments.

So just like Challenger tournaments, there's less liquidity and the odds aren't as sharp. However motivation (lack thereof) most definitely will cost you. You generally don't have that worry with Qualifying matches.

Feel free to join in. Only post when you feel it's value given the odds.

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So here it goes.

Feel like Pavic is underrated by the books here. He just beat Darcis and took Lu to a 3rd set TB a few days ago.

Nothing too flash. Sure. But Stakhovski, albeit good on grass (he took out Fed last year at Wimbledon) can play some pretty horrible tennis too. And that happens quite frequently. Pavic has some big weapons and has the game to keep it close.

[Cessation]

The thing to be careful of with qualifiers is the lucky loser spots.

Stakhovsky is the #1 alt atm I believe so in this case if there is a withdrawal and any funny business it will work in your favour.

[JC1186]

The thing to be careful of with qualifiers is the lucky loser spots.

Stakhovsky is the #1 alt atm I believe so in this case if there is a withdrawal and any funny business it will work in your favour.

Great to have someone mention that from the get go. Yes, that's very important.

However it doesn't apply here. Stak is actually the #6 seed. And this isn't the final round of qualifying.

[ManeOnFire]

Good thread. Can't really contribute much but pretty confident Murray has a great chance of winning Wimbledon.

[Cessation]

And this isn't the final round of qualifying.

Yes I should have checked that.

http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=448801

Stak is listed as first alt here. He is 6th seed because a couple of guys have taken wc's to qualies or passed him in the rankings since the entry close. How does that effect the awarding of a luck loser spot? If this was the final round would Stak get it or Sousa if they both lost?

[matt1216]

I like this JC, I think there's tons of value in the qualifying rounds.... You do usually have to take the sharp plays only here. The lucky losers seem to bite me in the ass from time to time as well... Nice hit above btw!

[Cessation]

Ok according to the atp rulebook it is qualifying seedings that determine the lucky loser not the rankings as at entry deadline as I thought.

[JC1186]

Ok according to the atp rulebook it is qualifying seedings that determine the lucky loser not the rankings as at entry deadline as I thought.

Thanks for that. Was just checking myself.

Good to know. Thought it was still seeding. Thank you very much sir.

Just to clarify, on the ATP site it does in fact have Stak as 6th seed. Would this not be official?

http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2014/440/qs.pdf

[JC1186]

Stakhovsky the better player in the first two sets.

Up until the TB in the 2nd. Pavic, with help of his big serve, was clutch, and took it 7-2. I was glad to see it reach the TB because he has an excellent record.

Classic Stak so far. Pavic just broke in first game of the third set. Stak with a classic hangover from being the better player with no reward.

2-0 in the third. I'm feeling optimistic about solid serving from here, while Stakhovski mugs about wondering how he's down in this match.

*Edit. 3-0 with the double break. Ahhh love it! What a delightful collapse.

[Cappinpicks]

good call, know that ante pavcic is trash mate must be solid to come back on darcis

[JC1186]

good call, know that ante pavcic is trash mate must be solid to come back on darcis

This is Mate, Cappins. He's 20 years old and a solid young gun.

Ante is around the late 20's mark I'm pretty sure.

[JC1186]

Hmmm, break back to 30 with 2 double faults in the game. Definite signs of concern given he had 1 DF for the match up until that game.

*Edit. Wowsers what an unbelievable collapse! Should have laid off @ 1.08 on Betfair. A big ass DAMNSKIIS!

[JC1186]

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So here it goes.

Feel like Pavic is underrated by the books here. He just beat Darcis and took Lu to a 3rd set TB a few days ago.

Nothing too flash. Sure. But Stakhovski, albeit good on grass (he took out Fed last year at Wimbledon) can play some pretty horrible tennis too. And that happens quite frequently. Pavic has some big weapons and has the game to keep it close.

[ATTACH]69695[/ATTACH]

Well a good start to a potentially very interesting (imo) thread. The bookies did indeed get it wrong. Winner!

[kenz]

You are sharp Great hit

[JC1186]

You are sharp Great hit

Cheers kenz.

[JC1186]

Qualifying Bet #2.

I analysed markets yesterday and penciled in Schmiedlova as the standout. I just didn't know the odds.

Her game is well suited to grass. She is improving all the time. Has great movement, the better serve of the two, and importantly, she's superior mentally.

She hasn't achieved much on the faster surfaces yet. However I genuinely have faith in her abilities. She's a player I'll be watching closely and anticipate sneaking some value while she steadily improves.

Imo Bencic's level is noticeably lower than what it was earlier in the year. So she's being overestimated here. I expected as much, but 2.90 is quite nice.



I'm rolling yesterday's stake+winnings into this. Usually I'd stick 3-5 units on it, but what the hell. This thread is forcing my hand hehe.

[Cappinpicks]

any sure thing favorites?

[Marillion]

Hey guys anybody making plays on the Wimbledon qualies? I took a break from betting but still follow things and wonder if anybody is betting on these. I suppose Sorensen shouldn't be a dog against Jaziri today.

[kenz]

Hey guys anybody making plays on the Wimbledon qualies? I took a break from betting but still follow things and wonder if anybody is betting on these. I suppose Sorensen shouldn't be a dog against Jaziri today.

Disagree Marillion. Jaziri should be the fav but looks like he might be inj

[Cappinpicks]

any good plays u like thats left?