spreads vs. total plays?

[BAY HORSE]

Just a question - I'm new to tennis, pretty much tailing you guys and making money - its obvious there are a handful of you guys that are scary good at this.

The spreads and the totals are related in tennis more so than other sports, so when do you go with the total and when do u hit the spread? Example: I'm looking at Lepchenko/ williams - total is at 17, spread is 7. So Lep + 7 gives u 6-3 6-2, or along those lines to push AND that gives you 17 which is a push So whats the play, if a play was to be made? Likewise williams -7 or the under?

Take tsonga as well, a few of you are on him in likely a tight match - so why not play the over?

Or kholsneezer. EP has him +5.5 - but the total is only at 19 1/2?

Thanks for any help - and thanks for taking the time to post your picks, tailing you guys is easy $ that i get to lose later on Mlb.

[tipsadontlikehim]

Most of time , i fancy the spread better.

Take for example the last match between Robredo and Bautista-Agut, Tommy Robredo was favourite of the match.
People would think, "the over is the right play because Bautista is a solid player", and guess what Bautista won 6/4 6/4 hitting the under games.
It happens quite often... I think Dodig was the underdog against Rosol and he won 6/1 6/2...

I remember last year a tipser on another forum he put a massive stake on the over games between Gasquet and Pospisil, he thought Gasquet would struggle... yes Gasquet struggled and lost 6/3 6/4 or something like that.

Usually players against who I would prefer playing over games are: Ferrer and Nadal
because they can lose a set 7/6 and then crush their opponents 6/2 6/2 in the next two sets (Ferrer even more than Nadal actually).

On fast conditions, I would prefer betting the spreads because breaks are more rare than on clay... also be careful when betting on matches in the best of 5 sets.
You can often see a guy playing a great match but losing 7/5 7/6 and then collapse 6/1 in the third, especially on clay.

I hope my answer helps!

[BAY HORSE]

That does help, much appreciated!

[tipsadontlikehim]

Usually players against who I would prefer playing over games are: Ferrer and Nadal
because they can lose a set 7/6 and then crush their opponents 6/2 6/2 in the next two sets (Ferrer even more than Nadal actually).

another example yesterday with Nadal winning 6/7 6/2 6/1
imagine the face of the guy backing Youzhny +6 games

[bababooey13]

another example yesterday with Nadal winning 6/7 6/2 6/1
imagine the face of the guy backing Youzhny +6 games

kohlschreiber as well.

[tipsadontlikehim]

kohlschreiber as well.

Indeed !

[EaglesPhan36]

It's really a coin flip. You pointed out two perfect examples today where the spreads died and the totals won. I think the spreads are usually more tempting because they have a chance to cover if the match ends in two and doesn't cover the total. For me, the +5.5 I liked better because it could cover a 6-4, 6-3 result that the Over would not hit on. But I mean at the end of the day as you saw today, no one knows which one is going to work out better.

[BAY HORSE]

Khols hurt me. But after tipsa called nadal/youzhny for me I suspected I was pretty well scribbled. Tailed dimitrov over and took dimi +2 so that helped. And tailed ferrer against the spread also. But true to form unless tampa bay or LA can pick up three more runs I gave it all back on mlb tonight. So it goes.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

The spreads and the totals are related in tennis more so than other sports.....

Oh, definitely not. Tennis totals are heavily determined by whether the match goes three sets or not. The spread isn't so much, except for large spreads (ie -5.5 in 3 sets is very unlikely, needs something like 6/7 6/3 6/2, or 4/6 6/2 6/2).

[tipsadontlikehim]

serena versus ivanovic : 6/1 3/6 6/1
oh yeah WTA ..

[Cessation]

I had Ivanovic at under 7.5 games at 1.98. Gave it up after the second set. Flicked to flashscore for final closure 15 minutes later and Serena was up 5-0, just couldn't break here one more time

[BAY HORSE]

But even then the relationship would be based partly on whether or not u think the match ends in three sets or two. A small say + 1.5 spread makes more sense to me if i assume there is a higher chance the dog takes a set, or on the other hand making a play on the fav ML vs. Taking even a small amount of chalk. On a large spread as tipsa points out you can end up getting the high hard one either way. Of course i hope that isn't often the case, I mean Jesus, wtf? If i had played the +5.5 spread thinking ivanovic takes a set, and then likewise taken the over assuming she takes a set, and then this happens- at that point i'm stumbling around in public with my thermos and my pants around my ankles like steve martin in "the jerk".

[tipsadontlikehim]

But even then the relationship would be based partly on whether or not u think the match ends in three sets or two. A small say + 1.5 spread makes more sense to me if i assume there is a higher chance the dog takes a set, or on the other hand making a play on the fav ML vs. Taking even a small amount of chalk. On a large spread as tipsa points out you can end up getting the high hard one either way. Of course i hope that isn't often the case, I mean Jesus, wtf? If i had played the +5.5 spread thinking ivanovic takes a set, and then likewise taken the over assuming she takes a set, and then this happens- at that point i'm stumbling around in public with my thermos and my pants around my ankles like steve martin in "the jerk".

and we'll have to be careful at the french open betting on men, 3 sets to win...i think i'll definitely favour the over games in my plays

damn, i just remember, back in 2012 there was a match between Haas and Gasquet, i thought Over 35 games was a lock.
Haas won the first set 7/6 lost the second 6/3 and Gasquet won the next two 6/0 6/0, one of the worst beat ever