I thought I would set up another thread. Lets make some plays and see where it goes. Nothing rediculous unit wise this time. 1 unit =25$
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1. Granollers 1.95 x 2 units
2. Riba ML 3.00 x 1 unit
3. Gonzalez + Carreno Busta 2.10 x 2 units
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4. Fognini + Stephens 2.10 x 1 unit
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5. Travaglia 1st set 2.80 x 1 unitComment -
How the fck do you lose to a man on stilts on clay? Busta, do me a favor! Tie a 50lb cinderblock to your feet and throw yourself into the ocean. What POSComment -
6. Gonzalez ML 1.69 x 3 unitsComment -
7. Stosur ML 1.61 x 3 unitsComment -
8. Zverev ML 2.90 x 1 unit
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What's up Matty?? Dude, I saw Busta was like pure kaka the last 2 months or so, all on clay. He lost like 3 first rounders lately or something, not sure, but he has been playing like shiit I thought. So knowing Ivo served massive bombs his last match & was only 1/1 on saving break points, so he def had a shot today I thought. I DO agree with you. Losing to a 7 footer on clay is OUCH!
I parlayed the over with Ivo's match with Bolleli (LOL!). Needless to say, got lucky to win that third breaker with Bolltrash & sneaked that one out at around +155. Good start to my day..
I see that Stephens is trying to come back for you, I hope she does! She was down a set and a break man, she is playing tough right now. And fuk man, I was gonna tail the +200 play on Riba, I KNEW Lorenzi was decent (at best). That match was a coin flip and I knew it, I just passed out last night. Great hit man!!!Comment -
Might not matter if Fogcrap loses to a guy he roasted last time he played! Why does that Italian play like he doesn't care? As a player, that drives me crazy.. Was gonna go with Rosol +4.5 games around +100, instead threw in Fogcrap in a parlay. I sware I can never back this guy again if he loses to "Rosol" on clay, mother of god...
Besides, what is that gonna say about his form?? Losing two first rounders in a row in huge tments leading to French?? Would be a horrible run for Fog bec going into the Open like this is pathetic & he will lose early in my opinion, smh...Comment -
Yea, I got lucky as fuk with Bolltrash @ -325 in my parlay, lol! I took Fogstain bec the line was -4 games, went to -4.5 & was STILL plus money for Roswald. I went kinda small, took my 155 winnings from my first play this morn, so I hope he wakes the fuk up, lol..
But I do hear ya, note WELL taken sir. Thank you
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Hey Dmoneytx, im not sure what is wrong with fognini.... i think he thinks hes too good for the sport at times, its rediculous. i keep forgetting the mental part of his game ruins his potential all the time. the match isnt over yet, hopefully fogs makes a comeback!
The riba play this morning was one of those matchups that i knew people were over looking. Hes not a bad dirtballer, hes just been plagued with injuries the last few years. he was top 70 i believe at one point.
Carreno Busta, what a POS... i cant stand this guy anymore. i figured he would take down karlovic on clay with little effort. was i ever wrong. im done with this kid. you see that fat mess in the stands?! i think thats his coach, what a joke.Comment -
That guy is Busta's coach??? NO WAY!!! oh wow...
Great hit on Riba again
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Gonzalez is an idiotComment -
what is gonzalez doing? are you watching him? fckComment -
Are you implying Karlovic is injured??Comment -
So it was a "length thing" then??Comment -
last play for this morning:
9. Dogopolov 1st set mL 1.91 x 2 units
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4-4 -.47 units
still awaiting the final of Zherev/Duckworth, match is currently in a rain delay.
Notible flops:
carreno busta
Fognini
Gonzalez.
Notible wins:
Riba
Granollers
*note to self:
The second round of most/all tournaments have had multiple/majority upsets.Comment -
Good to see a new thread of yours. Best wishes!
Edit: Isn't it fairly logical earlier rounds of tournaments tend to have more upsets??Comment -
Hey matts! I took Stephens from your post to put it along in a parlay with Petkovic. Thanks for that. I tend to play more WTA in the earlier rounds and then move on to men's side after the last 16 or quarters. Good luck for tomorrow!Comment -
Thanks man. I've been keeping for awhile now, the second round sees the most upsets by a solid margin. I get what your saying, most upsets happen early for sure, from what I've been tracking the second round in particular. Maybe the books are still trying to adjust, maybe it's coincidence.Comment -
Good luck bud! I honestly think Stephens is starting to snap out of it. She's way to talented to just not even show up for tournaments. I hope her coach keeps pushing her. Besides, Americans need someone to cheer for other than Serena. That's how pathetic the men's side isComment -
10. Saville ML 1.69 x 2 unitsComment -
By sheer coincidence I do foresee a lot of upsets tomorrow myself.Comment -
You got research on this? Or is this just guessing based on what you recall the last couple weeks? Not being a dick, just curious because I have no specifics.
I'm not sure statistically by percentages you find more upsets in round two vs. round one ....I think they stand out more because you tend to have more seeds playing their first matches and when they lose, it stands out. See Wawrinka last week. Mind you that upsets I am terming as the priced underdog winning, not seed or ranking.
I would be inclined to think that reality shows more upsets in round one simply based on there being more matches played.
Although 250s could be the exception with upsets galore.Comment -
I was actually speaking in relative terms, but you make a good point as always.Comment -
EP, I do not have any hard evidence but im positive when it comes to dogs and day 2 for whatever reason they hit at a incredible rate. today was outstanding for underdog value. its a solid setup if you think about it. day 1 have some what majority favorite winning. day 2 people love to parlay the chalk on the guys that should win for potential tournament winners, but it ends up sinking most chalk lovers/public. Day 3 public/wagerer's may chase the dogs thinking that's all that hit the day befor...... public gets smashed again. I cant give an excellent explanation for this, all I can say is keep a close eye on day 2, you may be pleasantly surprised.Comment -
my apologies for the above.... Tuesdays to be more specific Pacific standard timeComment