Now what's the deal with this guy Michon

[Marillion]

I first remember him in the Kazan challenger, won a (fixed?) match against Rudnev, odds for Michon went from 1.80 to 1.10 prior to the match.

I see he's playing well now but he went from 2.37 to 1.5 against Kudla?

[Simon Gruber]

Yep makes no sense to me. Kudla is ranked just outside the top 100 and a win here could get him direct acceptance in RG. I think you have to play Michon or nothing based on what happened yesterday with similar line movement.

[Marillion]

You are right, I now have something like a rule for challenger events. If there is a huge line movement and I don't see any justification for it (sometimes there is... and sometimes the line movement does not "predict" the winner like in Peliwo - Eysseric yesterday), I don't touch the match.

4 such matches this year (that I have noticed)
Michon - Rudnev (Kazan)
Golubev - Smyczek (Irving).. Golubev retired down in the second set
Kutrovsky - Torebko (San Luis)
Kubler - Garanganga (Savannah)

Huge line movement and surprising favourites won (for example, Garanganga had just defeated Kubler on clay 6-3 6-4.. one week later, they play on clay again, odds for Kubler drop down hugely and he wins). Not saying all of these are fixes but they could be.

ed: imo, line movement yesterday was more 'understandable' than the one for this match.. but anyway

[Simon Gruber]

Yeah, I don't think Kudla would throw a match when a potential win in Santos and a few par weeks could get him into the French Open but maybe that's the genius in it?

[Cappinpicks]

Kudla rolls, no more luck for this scrub

[addictedto]

Don't think it's matter of luck when there is a certain scenario Is this normal 90k Euro matched on this game?

[Marillion]

I'm not acquainted with Betfair but I am now in their in-play section and the total amount of money matched for this game and the Krajinovic game is approximately the same.
Or you mean the total amount of money matched pre-game was suspiciously high?

But I suspect this guy Michon a lot... first possible scam was in Russia (Kazan challenger). When you think if something is suspicious and Russia is involved then most probably it's a scam indeed lol.

Even if Kudla is fighting for a lot (a place in RG, as Simon says), huge fixing money is huge fixing money.

[Hardcoar]

In-play includes pre-play volumes. In my opinion (based on available information pertaining to odds and volumes), this is less likely to be a fix.

[Cappinpicks]

Yep makes no sense to me. Kudla is ranked just outside the top 100 and a win here could get him direct acceptance in RG. I think you have to play Michon or nothing based on what happened yesterday with similar line movement.

lot of no sense lines that end up being free $$$... today looks like another for sure