FogMugMuch vs. Bautista-Watchmesoar-Nowatchmemugabout-Agut

[JC1186]

Waited for the markets to come up after their last matches.

Pounced on B-A immediately @ 2.68 on Pinnacle.

Now, not so sure. Wish I had waited to give it some more thought.

Anyway basically a fair few of us know Fognini looked like he didn't give a shit in his last match. And with the exception of his win against Andy last week (which doesn't mean a hell of a lot) he has really battled in his last 4 clay matches against mugs. Double breadstick loss to Dolgopolov, losing sets to Sousa and Cuevas, and being bagelled by Bedene.
So if you look a little deeper it's easy to see he isn't quite cruising as smoothly as most probably tend to think given his awesome record on this surface over the past 9 months.

B-A looked good in his match against Pospisil. Was timing the ball sweetly and has proved already this year with huge upsets against JMDP and Berdych that he can battle hard and give it his all. Plus he obviously can get across the finish line against the top players.

Anyway anyone else having a play on either player? Reason would be nice.

[matt1216]

Fognini ML IMO. 1000 event should bring motivation. I watched the match dolgo beat him in.... Fognini was exhausted from his long run of wins in South America. He gave up a set to bedene but that was one match befor playing dolgo. He looked extremely tired there too. Found a way to win to advance. Sousa's no easy way to get back I to the swing of things after beating Murray in the Davis cup. I think Foggs will be fine

[EaglesPhan36]

I liked Fognini to make a run this week potentially.

Not sure what a win against a physically fukked Pospisil v.2014 really means for anyone on any surface, especially his worst (clay).

Fabs did comment that he felt at a point in his opener that he had little energy and no power in his legs. He still was able to overcome an impossible task and score a W. I think unless there is a lingering physical issue, the head-2-head says quite a bit about the match-up seeing as Fabs has won on non-preferred surfaces against Bautista-Agut several times. The Spaniard to me is not great on clay - a surprise from most Spaniards, but his track record has not shown he is a proven winner against better competition on clay above the Challenger level.

I'd be careful all-around with this match honestly. I'd rather see if Fognini is suffering from something before backing him, but I don't see a great reason to back Bautista-Agut. On a hard surface, I'd probably take a shot on the Spaniard. Dirt, not so much.

[JC1186]

Yeah pretty much agree. Not happy I backed it.

Now to decide whether to let it run for the hell of it or get out for a relatively small loss.

[EaglesPhan36]

If you have live betting for it, you might as well let it ride and see how the 1st set goes at least.

[tipsadontlikehim]

Players like BA are too fragile mentally against clowns like Fognini, remember Fognini beat BA on hardcourt...

[JC1186]

Have decided to let it ride.

There could be worse people to go against that Fabs!

Every time I've backed the mental midget he's abysmal so only have myself to blame.

*Edit. 5 mins in and BA is totally outmatched here. He's come out pushing the ball around, looks very tight, and doesn't have the kind of game plan needed here.

Will be a quick loss unless he changes things quick smart.

[MiDNiTe]

bautista looking solid any fuking around today and fog will be going home

[JC1186]

bautista looking solid any fuking around today and fog will be going home

Yep he absolutely DOES have a game plan.

Quite clearly on Fognini's racquet though.

[matt1216]

yeah^^ Agut has been better on dirt than I expected

[EaglesPhan36]

Low quality win for Fabs. Not overly impressive from either, but a W is a W.