Playing today in Houston(2pm), then they have to catch a red eye(same one??) to Monte Carlo to play Cilic and a qualifier. 7 hour time difference + jet lag.Dont believe they would make them play until tuesday or wed, but they are going to be gassed...first class or not.The court there is not the fairy dust clay they are playing on today, but the europe thick kind,and practice time may be limited and feeling like ASS after flying will be the double whammy possibly.I see the line up on cilic(playing verdasco) is dropping already, not sure on Al's opponent yet, but might be worth a play on the handicap vs a serviceable player.
-
-
Al draws Mathieu,,tough out..Bet fair has him at +220..Comment -
Last year, exact scenario happened to Almagro where he lost in the final at Houston then went to Monte-Carlo and won against Goffin in the first round in a 3 setter. In fact, looking over his history travel doesn't seem to be a problem with him but there has been a few 3 setters after coming off a final and Mathieu isn't the easiest of opponents. I think I will wait and hope the line gets bumped up with the public expected to see travel as a factor and bet on Mathieu and then I'll put a standard sized bet on Almagro depending on the odds at the time. Another note is that Mathieu typically gets knocked out in the 1st round at Monte-Carlo whereas Almagro usually gets thru the first couple of rounds.
Whereas, for Verdasco vs Cilic I probably won't have a bet for it. Line is too low now in my opinion to play Cilic and line is probably about right but not high enough for any value to take Verdasco.Comment -
Always tricky work on finalists. Generally only like going against them if their opponent is a serviceable dog and the turnaround is real hectic. If they get at least a day before playing, I think the angle is much cloudier to try.
Also remember sometimes it's the 2nd match that gets them, not the 1st.Comment -
Just saw the current odds on Almagro and pretty shocked. Definitely no value at those current odds and good value on Mathieu. Even without the lag, those odds would be good.
I'm not a big fan of betting big dogs even if there is value since I hate seeing losses on bets despite there being value. Will wait it out and see where the line goes cause long time before their game.Comment -
Surprised Verdasco beat him yesterday, this ALmagro just cannot win, very solid player but gets tight in later rounds.Comment
