Brown ML 3.85

Hardcoar · 04-09-14, 11:38 AM

Well I'm considering the @ 4.38 but I'm undecided at this point. Brown was quite good last match. The correlation with the spread (which is ridiculously disproportionate) indicates value on either Brown ML or Isner spread. I would definitely count on Isner to give it his all. He isn't going to do it half-assed in the States! His injury on the other hand could prove a factor. Also, Brown isn't particularly good on this surface either now is he? In fact, as far as surfaces go, I'd easily give the edge to the American pig.

AceAce · 04-09-14, 11:38 AM

Isner won here last year, he has 250 points to defend. If he loses those points he will drop around 3 rankings. I don't think he will want that

zec · 04-09-14, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by AceAce

Isner won here last year, he has 250 points to defend. If he loses those points he will drop around 3 rankings. I don't think he will want that

So basically if Isner wants to beat him he can?

Hardcoar · 04-09-14, 11:44 AM

So basically we don't know that. We basically know he will want to.

AceAce · 04-09-14, 11:45 AM

Basically yes

zec · 04-09-14, 11:47 AM

I am not a fan of basing decision on points. When they didn't play last year, people say 'he/she will be motivated to get a lot of points'. When they did well then they are motivated to defend points; not buying into it

Goat Milk · 04-09-14, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Well I'm considering the @ 4.38 but I'm undecided at this point. Brown was quite good last match. The correlation with the spread (which is ridiculously disproportionate) indicates value on either Brown ML or Isner spread. I would definitely count on Isner to give it his all. He isn't going to do it half-assed in the States! His injury on the other hand could prove a factor. Also, Brown isn't particularly good on this surface either now is he? In fact, as far as surfaces go, I'd easily give the edge to the American pig.

why is he a pig? isner is one of the nicest guys you'll find on tour. you're probably a foreigner and just trying to crack a joke

matt1216 · 04-09-14, 11:53 AM

I'm taking the play based on Isners injury and browns form. It should be a close match. If he can get Isner moving laterally often, I think he can win

Cappinpicks · 04-09-14, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

why is he a pig? isner is one of the nicest guys you'll find on tour. you're probably a foreigner and just trying to crack a joke

of course hes a brit his last name is rumgay

Cappinpicks · 04-09-14, 11:58 AM

how is brown gonna return isners serve? and not DF enough to win

beefcake · 04-09-14, 12:10 PM

Well, from the Doo Doo expert.Brown is going to serve and rush the net every dam time.Going to be fun as hell to watch it. Isner could murder him on the 2nd serves, but Doo Doo is going to go down swinging to be sure.This being a fairy dust clay tourney I have to say as much as I root for Brown, the surface favors Isner.Brown is(for a challenger level) players, decent on all surfaces.Grass being the best as his serve and volley game can work wonder(see last year vs Hewitt at Wimbledon).When he serves and wants the ball back every time, watch the confusion on the ball boys and girls faces.And also do not be surprised when Isner serves that Brown may want to keep the balls inser murders for aces.His style is so dam funky its nuts.Also watch out for the between the legs passing shot or over the head lob from the back of the court.Going to be a fun match!!!

beefcake · 04-09-14, 12:12 PM

My heart wants to bet on Brown $$ lines, but my head says over 22.5 but has been already bet up to -23.5 at -145..No way I am laying that much juice.

Cappinpicks · 04-09-14, 12:22 PM

twins suck so bad 0-8 vs A's now

JC1186 · 04-09-14, 12:44 PM

Isner isn't bad on clay. He has taken both Djokovic AND Nadal to 5 sets on clay.

Also being the defending champ + the USA = big motivation. The fact it's a 250 event means little when you're the defending champ and have points to defend.

If you want to take Brown I was suggest the 1st set @ 3.85. He has a match under his belt on this surface and that alone could be enough to get the job done.

I would give Isner a 50/50 chance of winning the match even from a set down. So the value is definitely on Brown 1st Set ML.

Hardcoar · 04-09-14, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

why is he a pig? isner is one of the nicest guys you'll find on tour. you're probably a foreigner and just trying to crack a joke

He isn't. I just enjoy how much using the term "American Pig" pisses Americans on internet forums off. I like Isner.

I am not from the USA, thank Jebus-Jerzy!!

Hardcoar · 04-09-14, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by zec

I am not a fan of basing decision on points. When they didn't play last year, people say 'he/she will be motivated to get a lot of points'. When they did well then they are motivated to defend points; not buying into it

I agree things such as that are often abused like bullshit, but there is no question about it when you are the defending champion (last year's winner).

matt1216 · 04-09-14, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Isner coming off back to back 1000 events. This is far from his favorite surface plus he's recovering from a knee injury. Don't be suprised if he plays half assed and gives the match to Brown. The ATP 250 isn't worth his time when he's injured. Go Brown!

Brown ML 3.85 x 3 units

Winner, winner

Cappinpicks · 04-09-14, 10:01 PM

cant believe pussy bovada limited me on tennis to nothing, was great when i could hit it big inplay any match

matt1216 · 04-09-14, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by Cappinpicks

cant believe pussy bovada limited me on tennis to nothing, was great when i could hit it big inplay any match

they do that. They even liked my odds. I would put down 2000$ on some in play and they would alter the odds and take 10 cents off. It's tough winning that way

Cappinpicks · 04-09-14, 10:38 PM

Anyway for them to take off the limit ? Gotta Fukien hammer it early I guess

JC1186 · 04-10-14, 12:23 AM

Originally posted by Cappinpicks

Anyway for them to take off the limit ? Gotta Fukien hammer it early I guess

Hahahah, good one!

Bookies (except for Pinnacle) are scum. You win consistently big and they limit you. Happens every time. Simple as that.