Kenz's Tennis

[tipsadontlikehim]

sad days yes, but obviously you couldn't maintain a 40% ROI no tipser in the world can do that, 10% in the long term is still damn difficult to achieve... good luck for the rest of the season

[kenz]

sad days yes, but obviously you couldn't maintain a 40% ROI no tipser in the world can do that, 10% in the long term is still damn difficult to achieve... good luck for the rest of the season

Thanks man

[JustSomeCash]

Plaese ! if you love your money stop betting on those fix-lines with carppy odds on total or HC!

You want to throw a bomb? good! keep with the ML winners like you did in Dimi (1.22) Monfils(1.22) or Isner (1.50)

It really pains me to see your losses in recent days, but it's all your fault, you chose to spend tons of money on unvalue bets and even more bad than this,its not about value...this 1.3 bets on HC or Total its one big crazy shit,even a crime,ticking bomb whatever you want to call it, it's just a bad technique

love you and wish you luck every fvcing year man!

[kenz]

Plaese ! if you love your money stop betting on those fix-lines with carppy odds on total or HC!

You want to throw a bomb? good! keep with the ML winners like you did in Dimi (1.22) Monfils(1.22) or Isner (1.50)

It really pains me to see your losses in recent days, but it's all your fault, you chose to spend tons of money on unvalue bets and even more bad than this,its not about value...this 1.3 bets on HC or Total its one big crazy shit,even a crime,ticking bomb whatever you want to call it, it's just a bad technique

love you and wish you luck every fvcing year man!

Thanks man

Raonic losing the 2nd set from 3-1 adv-40 and getting broken in his next serve from 40-0 in the 7th game (which killed my chances of 6-3 7-6 and a push) and Kevin Anderson winning only 1 game in the second set instead of 2, I think luck was not with me. But I had wins where I can say I was lucky so it is ok.

Thanks for the advices, I dont think I was very offbase with picks but maybe I was on dangerous waters with too much money, as you put out. BOL in your all plays

[JustSomeCash]

Thanks man

Raonic losing the 2nd set from 3-1 adv-40 and getting broken in his next serve from 40-0 in the 7th game (which killed my chances of 6-3 7-6 and a push) and Kevin Anderson winning only 1 game in the second set instead of 2, I think luck was not with me. But I had wins where I can say I was lucky so it is ok.

Thanks for the advices, I dont think I was very offbase with picks but maybe I was on dangerous waters with too much money, as you put out. BOL in your all plays

God forbid I do not mean your bets were offbase ,but when we all loss bet like this(fix lines with shity odds) it must be after a bizarre scenario involved with a lot of bad luck.

But my point is this, in this kind of bets,odds goes down because we are supposedly getting some advantage over the original line,but this advantage requires a specific scenario,and this scenario can never be equal to the odds.

For example in your case,if you would take the original line in Dolgo game,O23.5 for 1.95 +-,you would risk half of your money on this game,and yet it was unlucky loss,because Raonic losing the 2nd set from 3-1,if he hold,both bets were winners. if we take Fed game,the 2nd set really was unlucky for you but here we go again,1.36?!?! on total?! sick! why? bec the only way this ridiculous odds hit that if Fed win 6:4 6:4,if not and this end in two close sets,lets say 7:5 6:4(not even tallked about 3rd set or TB) so the O21.5 or 21 win and lets say that for 340$ profit you would risk not more than 600$.

so now,Fed or Anderson to win 6:4 6:4,really worth 1.36 odds?(I purposely did not mention the scenario of 7:5\6:2 and 7:6\6:1 win bec if you thought of anything like this you should take other bets that was available with higher odds).

I believe you caught my point and IMHO think you have a sharp eye in tennis and you certainly can hit bets without the necessity each time to fix the line.(eels like a lack of self confidence) you have big bankroll? good!! dream of every gambler! but it does not require you to only bomb and focus on low odds and fix lines.

You put 1500 on 1.20 odds but when you feel good on big value bets with 2+ 4+(Joker 2:1) odds you just throws a few pennies,be like Hardcore,shine your balls and go get them

[fitguy67]

JSC makes a good point...a lot of chalk on a ML just feels different (in a good way) than a lot of chalk on any other proposition...

And if the ML bet loses it's not so damn frustrating as with the propositions...
with a ML, your bet lost because your guy lost, plain and simple...easier to swallow than some implausible thing happened that shortened/lengthened the match by a game and fukked my bet

[kenz]

If I am not gonna be flamed

$200 on there will be a tiebreak in Isner - Gulbis @1.44 @tempobet

[Hardcoar]

Have you been flamed by anyone?

[kenz]

Have you been flamed by anyone?

y so curious HC?

[Hardcoar]

Because you seem to think you have reason to believe you'd be flamed.

[JustSomeCash]

If I am not gonna be flamed

$200 on there will be a tiebreak in Isner - Gulbis @1.44 @tempobet

Business as usual

[kenz]

If I am not gonna be flamed

$200 on there will be a tiebreak in Isner - Gulbis @1.44 @tempobet

+$88

[kenz]

Business as usual

[charley365]

free cash there,that was easy! nice job kenz

[kenz]

free cash there,that was easy! nice job kenz

Small wager, just for fun

I was also thinking first set 10.5 over @1.95, should take that too.

[fitguy67]

chek their H2H, 5 out of 9 sets these two had played went to TB...

now it's an amazing 7 of 11...

actually if you chek the H2H of Isner with any of the top 20 guys u'll see inordinately high percentages of "TB's to total sets" and "matches-with-TB's to total matches"...

the % drop off with the lower rated guys...cuz non-elite guys just can't deal with his serve and heavy FH and can't hang with him...

the best estimate of a random set score selected from Isner (or Karlovic, for that matter) is 7-6 (or 6-7, "live by the sword..."); with these serving bots the TB does play into their strength, obviously (Isner apparently won 38 of the 66 he had in '13--a near 60% coin weighted in his favor)

[kenz]

Began recording: 25/02/2014
Total Won: $12,964.20
Total Lost: $5,500
Total Profit: +$7,464.20

Total Wager: $30,475
Return of Investment: +24.49%

[kenz]

chek their H2H, 5 out of 9 sets these two had played went to TB...

now it's an amazing 7 of 11...

actually if you chek the H2H of Isner with any of the top 20 guys u'll see inordinately high percentages of "TB's to total sets" and "matches-with-TB's to total matches"...

the % drop off with the lower rated guys...cuz non-elite guys just can't deal with his serve and heavy FH and can't hang with him...

the best estimate of a random set score selected from Isner (or Karlovic, for that matter) is 7-6 (or 6-7, "live by the sword..."); with these serving bots the TB does play into their strength, obviously (Isner apparently won 38 of the 66 he had in '13--a near 60% coin weighted in his favor)

Good write-up

[kenz]

$198 on there will be a Tiebreak on Isner - Djokovic @1.70 @Marathonbet

The maximum stake Marathonbet allows on this market at this price is $198.77. When the price changes they may allow you to buy a little bit more, but I dont think I would go too heavy on this

[kenz]

$50 on Isner 2-1 @12 @Marathonbet

[kenz]

$198 on there will be a Tiebreak on Isner - Djokovic @1.70 @Marathonbet

The maximum stake Marathonbet allows on this market at this price is $198.77. When the price changes they may allow you to buy a little bit more, but I dont think I would go too heavy on this

$102 more on there will be a tiebreak on Isner - Djokovic @1.65 from a local bookie, @parasino

Total: $300

[Betfrog]

Most likely going 3 sets

[Betfrog]

What do you think about novak 2-1 ??

[poet]

I took Isner to win first set tie break at 7/1 odds. Can't beat that, considering how many of their first sets have gone to a tie-break.

[kenz]

What do you think about novak 2-1 ??

Will also buy it

[kenz]

$50 on Isner 2-1 @12 @Marathonbet

Also $50 on Djokovic 2-1 @4.45 @Marathonbet

[kenz]

$250 on Djokovic games won over 12.5 @1.66 @Marathonbet

[kenz]

$100 on Dolgopolov +1.5 sets @2.06 @Pinnacle

Federer not dropped a set yet this week. But Dolgopolov plays really good lately. Will give it a shot

[ZeKa]

$100 on Dolgopolov +1.5 sets @2.06 @Pinnacle

Federer not dropped a set yet this week. But Dolgopolov plays really good lately. Will give it a shot

Definitely a very good bet do make.I prefer flatstakes for my picks but i was really tempted to double the stake for this one.

[matt1216]

Most likely going 3 sets

Lol

[fitguy67]

Kenz, our fates are tied on Isner/Djokovic...i too am banking on

* a long first set (o10.5, o12.5 games)
*a tie-break in the match (hopefully in the 1st, cuz that would ring all the above dinner bells at the same time)
*a long match (i have o2.5sets, you have straddled the 2-1/1-2 scores)

Only difference is I'm slightly invested (in risk terms...but due to the fat odds, the payout would be sweet) in an outright Isner win while your Djoko o12.5 puts you more-or-less on the other side.

It's very plausible that we both go $positive on this match...good luck!

[fitguy67]

Djoko saving both of our asses with that heroic game-10 hold-from love...hopefully the first of several rings of the dinner bell.

[fitguy67]

just as Djoko saved our asses in the 10th game of the 1st set with a heroic hold...to ring a dinner bell

Isner does likewise in the 12th game of the 2nd set with a heroic break...to ring another

and then guarantees a 3rd set by winning the tie-break...ringing yet a few more!!!

[Betfrog]

...

[kenz]

just as Djoko saved our asses in the 10th game of the 1st set with a heroic hold...to ring a dinner bell

Isner does likewise in the 12th game of the 2nd set with a heroic break...to ring another

and then guarantees a 3rd set by winning the tie-break...ringing yet a few more!!!

...

Come on Isner