ZeKa's tennis thread

[ZeKa]

I have created this thread in order to track my bets, discuss them with you, improve my betting knowledge and as a long-time goal, to reach constant profit.
I never play WTA and only from time to time Challengers or ATP doubles.So 85%-90% of my picks are going to be ATP 250 or higher, singles.

I never play anyone to win 2-0 or 3-0.
First picks will come later from Dubai SF.

[ZeKa]

Ok so first 2 picks are:

Berdych -5 games 2.12
Kohl can play good tennis but his serve is not strong enough to constantly hold against Berdych so he will get broken a few times.

Djokovic -4 games 1.97
Federer struggling with his 1st serve percentage and on his second serve he should be around 45% points won.Djokovic playing well here in Dubai and had a rest as Youzhny retired.Djokovic covered this spread in their last 2 meetings.

[ZeKa]

Breaks coming too late in the sets for Berdych and Djokovic surprised me by a 0-5 break point conversion in the second and third set.

For today
Berdych ML 2.20
Haas-4 games 1.95
Bellucci-Del Bonis over 23 games 2.00

[ZeKa]

Berdych with a tough loss today, Haas retiring and Belucci's match going the right way.Better than first day, record 1-3-1 so far.

Dimitrov-Anderson over 23 1.88

Kevin will be in trouble with his second serves as he is not the guy to win rallies against Dimitrov.On the other hand, Grigor has his own blackout moments during matches so Anderson will have some chances to get the lead or even the win.I also see at least one set going to tiebreak and i expect a really close match that can go either way.

[ZeKa]

Ok, so 2-3-1 so far and IW has just started.Great spot for making some money.
Hewitt-Ebden Hewitt-5 games 2.21 H2H and also Ebden's recent matches suggest that he will be outclassed tonight.

Golubev-Harrison Harrison-2 games 2.00 Close match but home crowd gives Ryan the edge.

[Hardcoar]

Best wishes... Lookin' forward to your thoughts!

[ZeKa]

Thank you very much Hardcoar, glad to hear that you follow my thread.
In the meanwhile, Hewitt broken 8 times by Ebden(I didn't see that coming) but Harrison doing his job and that sets me 1L-1W for the night, 3-4-1 so far.
Just a small notice, i think that not a single tonight's winner will win in the second round too.Overall a poor tennis night and none of the winners impressed me.Also, very tough matches for most of them.
Will be back later with some more picks.

[ZeKa]

Plays for tonight:
Bautista Agut-Johnson Bautista-4 games 2.37 Pinnacle
This should be a very tough matchup for Johnson.Similar to Hewitt-Ebden, but i do not expect Steve Johnson to break 8 times.

Zeballos-Ram

Zeballos ML 2.07-Ram's return game is far from good enough at this level.
Over 23 2.07-Can see 2 long sets here but also a 3 setter.

[ZeKa]

Bautista played really well and covered the spread relatively easy.Hope Hewitt watched this match.
Could not watch Zeballos-Ram but it's just fine that Horacio won.

2W-1L for tonight.

[ZeKa]

Monfils-Stakhovsky Stakhovsky +4 games 2.01
Can't see the ukrainian losing this in a categoric way.

Nadal-Stepanek under 19 games 1.92
A better and safer alternative for Nadal-5.5 or -6.

[ZeKa]

My last 2 bets...not even close.

Sousa-Gulbis Gulbis-5 games 2.06

Benneteau-Tsonga over 22 games 1.85

Zeballos-Verdasco over 22 games 1.85

Hanescu-Djokovic under 18 games 1.87

[ZeKa]

2W 2L for the night.

Nadal-Dolgopolov Dolgo+4.5 2.00 Pinnacle

Haas-Nishikori Nishi-3 1.92 Pinnacle

[ZeKa]

Tough days this week, lots of dogs playing awesome but also lots of top players playing awful.1W-1L

Thiem-Benneteau over 23 games 1.98

Lu-Isner over 24 games 1.88

[ZeKa]

0-2

For today:
Wwawrinka-Anderson Wawrinka -4 1.95 Kevin should not be able to handle Stan's game today.
Haas-Federer Haas+4 1.95 H2H makes this bet very attractive, and Fed's match against Tursunov too.
Dolgopolov-Fognini Dolgo-3 1.87 Dolgo should win the match and Fabio can lose anytime a set in a 6-1 or 6-2 manner, so even a 3-setter can be alright.

[ZeKa]

1-1-1

Dolgopolov ML 2.20
Milos will find himself in trouble as Dog takes the ball quickly and hits it hard.

[ZeKa]

Great job Sasha.
Isner-Gulbis over 25.5 games 1.88
over 10.5 games 1st set 2.00

[ZeKa]

2/2 that is great.
Both Djokovic and Federer should find themselves in trouble tonight.I am expecting at least one of them to lose.Will be back later with some final predictions.

[kenz]

1-1-1

Dolgopolov ML 2.20
Milos will find himself in trouble as Dog takes the ball quickly and hits it hard.

Great job Sasha.
Isner-Gulbis over 25.5 games 1.88
over 10.5 games 1st set 2.00

[ZeKa]

Thanks Kenz.

Dolgopolov-Federer Dolgopolov +1.5 sets 2.06

[ZeKa]

Dolgopolov far from what i was expecting.
Final should be interesting.Djokovic with an unconvincing performance at IW this year.Losing a set to Gonzalez makes me believe that Djokovic is not 100% either phisically or mentally.Or even both.Second set's last part against Isner supports this theory.On the other hand, Federer plays well , close to the best he can play given his age.Not losing a set all week means something.
We have already seen Fed 2014 beating Djoker 2014 at Dubai.My lean is that there are decent chances for that to happen again.

Federer-Djokovic Federer+3 games 1.85

[ZeKa]

IW is over so it's time for some stats.

29 picks so far

13W-14L-2V
avg odds:1.99

Not the best of the records but still decent.
Expecting for Miami to improve this.