ITT I Bet Air

[Marillion]

Hey, thanks sir. There is also the Marie - Niki game... Last time I checked, it hadn't played yet.

ed: This is an ITF game.. in Japan, I think.

I think Wawa in straights was bad because he played against a big server on hard court... so I should have thought if Wawa was even a bit off and Kev's serve was on fire, then the South African could make it at least close... But of course, I didn't see Wawa losing this one!

[Marillion]

Li to defeat Cibulkova (1.40) - 2 units

The match is about to start.

[Marillion]

Zhang to defeat Sorensen (1.57) - 2 units

[Marillion]

Panova to defeat Simmonds (1.40) - 2 units
Gombos to defeat Ilhan (1.57) - 1 unit

[Marillion]

Marie to defeat Niki (1.30) - 2 units loss
Istomin to defeat Kamke (1.44) - 2 units loss
Sijsling to defeat Marchenko (1.50) - 1 unit loss
Kucova to defeat Bogdan (1.33) - 2 units win
Panova to defeat Pella (1.28) - 1 unit win
Li to defeat Cibulkova (1.40) - 2 units win
Zhang to defeat Sorensen (1.57) - 2 units loss
Gombos to defeat Ilhan (1.57) - 1 unit loss

Wins-Losses-Void
94-47-8

YTD
+20.85 units

total units risked 278.9 total units won 299.75

ROI
7.48%

This is a pretty bad streak, I am genuinely surprised by 4 of the 5 losses and am 100% sure Gombos was a pretty square play. No need to get disappointed, though.

From now on, I will try to do some brief write-ups, not that I am an expert or something but I will try to put my thoughts in writing.

Federer to defeat Dolgopolov (1.28) - 3 units

As much as I admire Dolgopolov's style, I am pretty confident in this pick. Federer can do everything much better than Dolgopolov, superior technique, superior shots, both are moving pretty well... OK, I don't know about the serve (Dolgo's serve is very impressive considering that he is only 180 cm) but the Master should take this even if the Ukrainian can definitely make it close (something like 6-4 7-5, let's say).

Matsui/Onozawa to defeat Kikuchi/Longhi (1.33) - 2 units

Both Matsui and Onozawa played very well in their double teams in the Kyoto challenger. The other double team seems to be way worse than them and this is also a match I am pretty confident of.

Panova to defeat Simmonds (1.40) - 2 units

Panova has been crushing these South American challengers recently losing only to Begu (probably the best player in that player pool now). Unlike Simmonds, she is a clay court specialist and I think she should take this match.

Stakhovsky to defeat Smyczek (1.44) - 2 units

I think the Ukrainian serve-and-volley guy is good enough to defeat players at Smyczek's level the vast majority of the time (on a fast surface, of course). This tournament has brought me 2 major disappointments so far (Sijsling and Istomin) and almost brought me one more (Golubev retired), so let's hope this ends the losing streak.

Bennetau to defeat Djokovic (11.00) - 0.25 units

OK, if Djoko can lose a set to Alejandro Gonzalez, who is way worse than Bennetau on hard, then he may lose two to the Frenchman (who seems to be in a good form), n'est-ce pas?

EDIT: I now see that the Panova match has already started, so I won't count it when tracking the results. Will try to avoid that in the future.

EDIT 2: Ok, I now see that I had already posted Panova in my previous post (which was a few hours earlier), so I will count it!

[Marillion]

Matsui/Onozawa to defeat Kikuchi/Longhi (1.33) - 2 units win
Panova to defeat Simmonds (1.40) - 2 units win
Stakhovsky to defeat Smyczek (1.44) - 2 units win
Bennetau to defeat Djokovic (11.00) - 0.25 units loss

Wins-Losses-Void
97-48-8

YTD
+22.94 units

total units risked 285.15 total units won 308.09

ROI
8.04%

[Marillion]

Sasnovich to defeat Ianchuk (1.22) - 1 unit

Sasnovich has been cruising in this ITF tournament so far and seems to be on her way to top 100. She has also had very impressive results recently. I see small value here even with the line that low.

[Marillion]

Isner to defeat Djokovic (5.50) - 0.5 unit

With that line I have to go with the big American. He seems to have recovered from his injury and is playing very well. He is going to put a lot of pressure on Nole and I am not convinced that the Serb is in a very good form. He dropped a set to Cilic and, more importantly, to Gonzalez, while yesterday, Benneteau was too bad to even make it close. I definitely think Isner has a chance on hard in his home country and that the odds are good enough.

[Marillion]

Weintraub to defeat Sorensen (1.66) - 3 units

The lrish player is a level below Weintraub, I think... He has been an unpleasant surprise for me defeating Ze Zhang in this tourney (8-6 in the third set tiebreak) but I think the Israeli will get this match and the whole tourney.

Will update thread with results after this match.

[Marillion]

Djokovic to defeat Federer (1.61) - 4 units

I understand what dictates the opening lines but think that Novak holds some good value and am betting 4 units. I am pretty sure that this line will go down.

[Marillion]

Johnson to defeat Rosol (2.00) - 2 units

Although Rosol has been good recently, I think the American has more than 50% chance of winning this one. First time I saw him play was versus Chieh-Fu Wang in a challenger event in the beginning of the year and he was awful. After that, though, he has shown very impressive performance - even in his last loss versus Bautista-Agut he looked pretty impressive, that was a quality match between two players that are on fire.

[Marillion]

Sasnovich to defeat Ianchuk (1.22) - 1 unit loss
Isner to defeat Djokovic (5.50) - 0.5 unit loss
Weintraub to defeat Sorensen (1.66) - 3 units loss
Djokovic to defeat Federer (1.61) - 4 units win
Johnson to defeat Rosol (2.00) - 2 units loss

Wins-Losses-Void
98-52-8


YTD
+18.88 units

total units risked: 295.15 total units won: 314.03

ROI
6.40 %

Goals to set for future picking: stay calm and research more, don't take decisions too quickly, try to avoid being influenced by others - use my own brain.

I'll make plays for the Miami qualifiers shortly... but the lines should open first.

[Marillion]

Haider-Maurer to defeat Giustino (1.44) - 2 units

The Austrian is a better player and has been playing 250 clay events recently - and doing fine. Giustino's last matches are also on clay but ITF tournaments, including losses to some unknown to me Spanish players ranked 200-300... Haider-Maurer should take this match.

[Marillion]

Majeric to defeat Peer (2.62) - 1 unit
I think Peer should be a good fading material now. Recent results have been very bad.


Krajicek to defeat Piter (1.50) - 4 units
Krajicek seems to be back in good health now. I bet on her to defeat Piter (who is in a horrible form) in the Indian Wells qualifiers and she did it (1 unit then only, as I didn't know what her health condition was). I don't see Little Crow losing this one, she is a much better player and her opponent is in a very poor form.


Burnett to defeat Minella (1.72) - 2 units
Mandy is one more player I am inclined to fade. Burnett is talented but somewhat unstable. Her last tourney (Rio) was very impressive, though.


Pereira to defeat Hsieh (2.00) - 1 unit
The "keep on fading unstable women" strategy goes on with number 1 in the world (in doubles) Su-Wei Hsieh. Pereira has been solid recently, so I think this is worth a bet.


Van Uytvanck to defeat Vandeweghe (1.53) - 2 units
Backing the more solid, stable player here.

[Marillion]

Lacko to defeat Martin (3 units) - 1.30
A much better player (especially on hard) and I think the price is worth.

Polansky to defeat Gojowczyk (3 units) - 1.83
Gojowczyk is definitely talented but since the triumph in the Heilbronn challenger, he has produced awful results. Polansky has been quite impressive. His loss to Williams doesn't bother me - that was simply a challenger tournament he has used to keep himself in form between Indian Wells and Miami.

Herbert to defeat Becker (1 unit) - 2.25
I may be wrong here but I like Pierre-Hugues Herbert a lot! He is still a bit slender but definitely has power, he has a strong serve and is a good all-around player in a great form. Recent losses are only to Nieminen - a match Herbert should have won if he had shown more patience - and his partner in doubles Olivetti (a very close match against a player with a giant serve on a very fast indoor court... the loss is no shame at all). I definitely think Pierre-Hugues can take this one.

Lajovic to defeat Berankis (2 units) - 1.66
Berankis should be tired - he has played challengers in France, Japan and Russia (lost to Dustov in his home town Kazan like 2 days ago) and now, he has a match in Miami. Lajovic has been producing solid performance, he doesn't have a long travel just a day or two before the match, he doesn't change from ultrafast indoor hard to outdoor hard... and he says hard is his favourite surface (although he plays a lot of matches on clay as well).

Struff to defeat Marchenko (2 units) - 1.50
I think Struff should be able to overpower Marchenko. The Ukrainian may be tired as well, as he has played six matches in the Irving challenger.

[Marillion]

Another bad day but not as bad as the previous one! Will update with results late.

Bets on WTA tomorrow, I'm kinda lazy to write about them now.

Shvedova to defeat Schiavone (1.72) - 1 unit
Barthel to defeat Pitterson (1.25) - 4 units
Petrova to defeat U. Radwanska (2.20) - 1 unit
Petkovic to defeat Torro-Flor (1.36) - 3 units
Meusburger to defeat Lourdes Domingues Lino (1.44) - 2 units
Svitolina to defeat Mattek-Sands (1.66) - 2 units
Jovanovski to defeat Oprandi (1.36) - 3 units
Mchale to defeat Jie Zheng (1.66) - 1 unit

[Marillion]

Polansky to defeat Thiem (4.00) - 1 unit
Date-Krumm to defeat Abanda (1.40) - 3 units
Cabeza-Candela to defeat Cetkovska (3.25) - 1 unit
Dzhumur to defeat Golubev (2.50) - 1 unit

[Marillion]

Total result for yesterday is -0.97 units... not that bad and both Hsieh, Peer and Pitter surprised me unpleasantly (Pitter in an extremely close match for a 4-unit loss). I am pretty happy with the bets (but maybe I should have stayed away from Becker - Herbert!).

This time WTA kinda messed things up, the day was 5-1 at ATP and 1-4 at WTA.

Haider-Maurer to defeat Giustino (1.44) - 2 units win
Majeric to defeat Peer (2.62) - 1 unit loss
Krajicek to defeat Piter (1.50) - 4 units loss
Burnett to defeat Minella (1.72) - 2 units win
Pereira to defeat Hsieh (2.00) - 1 unit loss
Van Uytvanck to defeat Vandeweghe (1.53) - 2 units loss
Lacko to defeat Martin (3 units) - 1.30 win
Polansky to defeat Gojowczyk (3 units) - 1.83 win
Herbert to defeat Becker (1 unit) - 2.25 loss
Lajovic to defeat Berankis (2 units) - 1.66 win
Struff to defeat Marchenko (2 units) - 1.50 win

Wins-Losses-Void
104-57-8

total units risked: 318.15 total units won: 336.06

YTD
+17.91 units

ROI
5.63%

Since Burnett was the only girl that didn't disappoint me, I will express my gratitude to her with a pic tribute.

[Marillion]

Garcia to defeat Wozniak (2.37) - 3 units

[Marillion]

Moriya to defeat Peliwo (1.66) - 3 units

[Marillion]

Stepanek to defeat Brands (1.33) - 2 units
Gimeno-Traver to defeat Khachanov (1.36) - 1 unit
Matosevic to defeat Falla (2.00) - 4 units
Mannarino to defeat Davydenko (3.00) - 3 units
Roger-Vasselin to defeat Sijsling (1.44) - 1 unit
Nieminen to defeat Tomic (1.53) - 3 units

[sluggy1616]

Are you still betting air? If you are you should see if your larger unit bets are hitting at a higher % than lower unit bets. You seem to know how to pick winners. I think your starting to do yourself a bit of a disservice if you don't start betting for real. You really don't know how good you are until you have to be selective with the bets you make and know how you will handle a losing streak with real money when it happens(and it will).

[Marillion]

I am now doing real money bets but at this point, I can allow smallish bets only. But it's still something. You are absolutely right about higher and lower unit bets, I think I have had a weakness with bet sizing and I will check all that shortly.

Ormaechea to defeat Pitter (1.66) - 3 units.
Golubev to defeat Dodig (2.62) - 1 unit
Zeballos to defeat Goffin (3.40) - 1 unit
Bautista-Agut to defeat Johnson (1.44) - 2 units

[Marillion]

Shvedova to defeat Schiavone (1.72) - 1 unit win
Svitolina to defeat Mattek-Sands (1.66) - 2 units win
Jovanovski to defeat Oprandi (1.36) - 3 units loss
Polansky to defeat Thiem (4.00) - 1 unit loss
Date-Krumm to defeat Abanda (1.40) - 3 units win
Cabeza-Candela to defeat Cetkovska (3.25) - 1 unit win
Dzhumur to defeat Golubev (2.50) - 1 unit loss
Garcia to defeat Wozniak (2.37) - 3 units win
Moriya to defeat Peliwo (1.66) - 3 units win

Wins-Losses-Void
110-60-8

total units risked: 336.15 total units won: 360.64

YTD
+24.49 units

ROI
7.29%

[Marillion]

PARLAY: Vesely + Haider-Maurer + Moriya (1.71) - 1 unit

[Marillion]

Putintseva to defeat Hibi (1.50) - 1 unit
Sousa to defeat Carreno-Busta (1.50) - 2 units

[Marillion]

A big day yesterday for +19.36 units!!

Barthel to defeat Pitterson (1.25) - 4 units void
Petrova to defeat U. Radwanska (2.20) - 1 unit win
Petkovic to defeat Torro-Flor (1.36) - 3 units win
Meusburger to defeat Lourdes Domingues Lino (1.44) - 2 units win
Mchale to defeat Jie Zheng (1.66) - 1 unit win
Stepanek to defeat Brands (1.33) - 2 units win
Matosevic to defeat Falla (2.00) - 4 units win
Mannarino to defeat Davydenko (3.00) - 3 units win
Ormaechea to defeat Pitter (1.66) - 3 units. win
Golubev to defeat Dodig (2.62) - 1 unit loss
Zeballos to defeat Goffin (3.40) - 1 unit win
PARLAY: Vesely + Haider-Maurer + Moriya (1.71) loss
Putintseva to defeat Hibi (1.50) - 1 unit win

Wins-Losses-Void
120-62-9

total units risked: 363.15 total units won: 407

YTD
+43.85 units

ROI
12.07%

[kenz]

good job!

[Marillion]

Thanks, sir!

Kiick to defeat Chirico (1.44) - 2 units

[Marillion]

Ormaechea to defeat Kvitova (6.50) - 0.5 unit

Ormaechea is good and since Kvitova has been in a poor form recently, I definitely think a surprise is possible and the odds are good. You can check highlights from Ormachea - Zheng at Indian Wells here, I have just started watching and it seems that it was a pretty good match!

[Marillion]

Stepanek to defeat Seppi (2 units) - 1.44

[Marillion]

Garcia to defeat Zakopalova (2.75) - 2 units

[Marillion]

Nieminen to win 4th game (3.00) - 0.5 unit (in-play)

[Marillion]

Nieminen to win first set 6-0 (3.25) - 1 unit (in-play)

[Marillion]

Nieminen to win point 2 in 7th game (1.40) - 0.5 unit (in-play)

This is starting to get funny.

... damn, this one lost