Please Help, I have $100 on bouchard to win Aus open at $34...read on

poet · 01-22-14, 03:28 AM

Originally posted by minathomas88

I have $100 on bouchard to win Aus open at $34.. she plays LI NA tomorrow who is clear favourite.

Anyway Bouchard to Win the Aus open is currently $9. I was thinking if I place another $200 on her to win then put $1,800 on LI NA to win the Aus open @ $2 (Which is the profit of the 2nd bet) i will either...

a) li na defeats bouchard tomorrow and is clear favourite for the title... so i will hedge against whoever her opponent is... and make at least $1000...?

b) bouchard wins tomorrow and i still have $34000 to play around with... so i will hedge to cover my $1800

c) what am i missing? i need help.. any advice would be great!

i am not happy of making a couple hundred bucks profit off this bet, i want something substantial (at least 1k) but i know i am missing something and i dont want to end up -2k if that makes sense

cheers boys! appreciate your comments

If you want to do this right you have to make an educated guess on what you think Li Na's (and Bouchard's) odds will be against the remaining players in the final. You can use matchstat to see the lines that their previous encounters produced. But if you really have 34,000 to play with (and all you want is a 1,000 profit) all you have to do is put 3,400 on Na against Bouchard and make a grand if Na wins. And if she loses you can still win the 3,400 back (and more) by hedging against Bouchard in the final. But you need money in your accounts in order to do this.

minathomas88 · 01-22-14, 03:36 AM

I only have $3,400 to play with I put $100 on her at $34

Li na will be paying 1.44 against radwanska IMO and $1.20 against cibuljova I think

Is it worth putting more money on Bouchard?

addictedto · 01-22-14, 07:28 AM

You cannot guarantee 1k at this moment. The easiest way is to lay (bet against) Bouchard in Betfair or Betdaq which means you bet on the opposite, that she will not lift the trophy. Your profit will be guaranteed 100% and it's about 260 Usd in both outcomes.

terpkeg · 01-22-14, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by addictedto

You cannot guarantee 1k at this moment. The easiest way is to lay (bet against) Bouchard in Betfair or Betdaq which means you bet on the opposite, that she will not lift the trophy. Your profit will be guaranteed 100% and it's about 260 Usd in both outcomes.

This is accurate...adding more bets is just eating more juice.

Optional · 01-22-14, 09:43 AM

$500 to payout $1000 Li Na wins title
$312 to payout $1000 AgRad wins title
$100 to payout $1000 Cibulkova wins title

Leaves $2400 if bouchard wins title...

or even it up and guarantee more than $1000

Unless I just had a brain fart...

Optional · 01-22-14, 09:48 AM

Actually that isn't right

If you put $1315 on na, $820 on Agrad and $260 on Cibulkova, you would still be left with $1000 profit if Bouchard wins, but only $230 if any of the other 3 win.

Addictedto had it right for an even split

minathomas88 · 01-22-14, 10:12 AM

thanks optional thats awesome

however i was thinking of the following;

if i get bouchard now at $9, say for $100, can i lay more on li na? my hypothesis (sorry to sound geeky) is that li na wins tomorrow, and is backed in at about $1.40 for the final, if its against radwanska(maybe $1.56.

so if i put $1000 on li na of that $900 profit then if li na wins tomorrow, i can put $500 on her opponont and make at least $500?

does it work that way? coz if it does i will increase the stake and buy bouchard for $300.... and lay $2000 on li na...

shit i think i confused myself?

Optional · 01-22-14, 11:21 AM

I know what your saying, but I'm afraid to try and confirm for same reason as you. LOL

First thought is, this probably isn't 'smart' unless you are confident Bouchard is still value at $9.00.

But let me see if we can work it out the slow persons way,

right now

Risk = $100 Reward = $3300

Change to

Risk = $200 Reward = $4100

Which leaves you $3100 to play with and maintain $1000 profit on Bouchard.

using this dutching calculator

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http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

If you spread that across the other 3 it increases your guaranteed profit on the others from $230 to $300

So... I think the answer is yes... but the key question before any of that is, Do you have a spare $3100 to place these hedge bets? if you do, then i guess the best move is to bet as much extra as you can afford to hedge the bet for.

But please have someone else double check my thinking. You saw what I posted first up

Optional · 01-22-14, 11:34 AM

Again... ignore that post mate.

I just realized if one of the other 3 win you need to take the bouchard stake off their profit.

So as you are now, to keep $1000 profit on Bouchard the best you could do is $130 profit on the others.

If you bet her again for an additional $100 @ $9.00.. then you actually reduce your guaranteed profit on the other 3 to $100

And now I'm confident that's right, finally. ;-)

So don't do it.