Large play on Roger tonight to beat Andy Murray .....here's why:

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  • MagicDiceFlow
    SBR MVP
    • 01-15-12
    • 4585

    #1
    Large play on Roger tonight to beat Andy Murray .....here's why:
    The big question for a lot bettors tonight is whether Andy Murray is at full 100% from his back surgery. I will answer that in two words ......NOT YET. Here's why:

    Murray has been in decent form in this tournament. Not great , just decent and playing to his competition when needed. He's won his last four matches but if you take a look deeper, I am not quite convinced he's back at full 100% which he'll need to be to beat Federer tonight. Since coming back from surgery , Murray has lost to Tsonga in straights, Hewitt in straights, and a more surprising loss to Mayer all in the last 30 days. Now the pre-surgery/top form Murray would have never let that happen. Also, it seems to me that Murray has sort of resorted back to his defensive minded style of play. Not that the style is bad because we all know he's one of the best defenders in the game, but the Murray that won those two slams was the offensive minded Murray. I think it's more natural for Murray to play that defensive style and he has to be reminded sometimes to be more offensive.

    Now for Federer, you can also say that he lost to Hewitt but I believe Roger gifted that title to his friend Lleyton. If you watched that match, Roger looked like he just wanted to finish quick and get the hell out of there. At this point of his career , Roger doesnt need any more money, he doesnt care about points or being number #1, all he cares about are SLAMS. Grand Slam titles are the only thing that will add more to this man's legacy and that's all he cares about tennis wise in his life at this point. So if you take away that loss to Hewitt, the only two people that beat him since November are the two best in the world .... Nadal and Djokovic.

    I really like Federer's chances tonight and will be pounding the match for two dimes. I think he will play a focused and inspired match. It may end up being a tough and long four/five setter but in the end, I think Roger will show the world that even at the age of 32, he can still beat the elite players of the game.

    Best of Luck everyone
  • suicidekings
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-23-09
    • 9962

    #2
    100% agreed.
    Comment
    • Bill_Hicks
      SBR MVP
      • 09-30-12
      • 1094

      #3
      Awesome write-up again MDF. Same size bet as berdych if I'm not mistaken?
      Comment
      • MagicDiceFlow
        SBR MVP
        • 01-15-12
        • 4585

        #4
        Originally posted by Bill_Hicks
        Awesome write-up again MDF. Same size bet as berdych if I'm not mistaken?
        Yep, same size bet Bill.....good luck.
        Comment
        • MagicDiceFlow
          SBR MVP
          • 01-15-12
          • 4585

          #5
          Ticket Details :
          Wager Type : Money Line
          Wager Status : Pending
          Risk / To Win Amount : 2,500.00 / 2000.00(USD)
          Accepted : 1/21/2014 4:08AM - PST



          Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
          Selection : R. Federer
          Time : 1/21/2014 4:00:01PM - (PST)
          Line : -125
          Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

          Comment
          • w@lt
            SBR MVP
            • 10-08-10
            • 2594

            #6
            Makes sense, just like your Cibu pick. Will probably tail if I can get my money back with.. Dimitrov
            Comment
            • shari91
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 02-23-10
              • 32661

              #7
              I jumped on Fed as soon as the lines were released for this match. Maybe I'm over excited at what I saw of him in the Tsonga match but I'm willing to take the chance. If that Fed turns up against the Murray I've seen this tourney then he's got him, maybe even in three. I just saw that we were both on Cibu this morning too... man I love her when she's in the zone and nailing her shots. She can beat anyone when she's in that zone and getting her as a dog was just a bonus. Let's hope our good luck continues, especially with your big bet!!
              Comment
              • MagicDiceFlow
                SBR MVP
                • 01-15-12
                • 4585

                #8
                Originally posted by shari91
                I jumped on Fed as soon as the lines were released for this match. Maybe I'm over excited at what I saw of him in the Tsonga match but I'm willing to take the chance. If that Fed turns up against the Murray I've seen this tourney then he's got him, maybe even in three. I just saw that we were both on Cibu this morning too... man I love her when she's in the zone and nailing her shots. She can beat anyone when she's in that zone and getting her as a dog was just a bonus. Let's hope our good luck continues, especially with your big bet!!

                Yep, I grabbed Fed soon as I could in the morning. I was saying to myself, if that line was close to a pick, I'm taking Fed for the max. I just have a strong feeling Roger will be firing on all cylinders tonight now that he's this close and Djoker is gone.

                Great to see you on Cibulkova! I love Cibu ....she has been such a money player the last few weeks and I knew if she kept up that same form against Pova, Halep would be toast today. I love watching her play as well. I'm a big fan of strong groundstrokes and its incredible the pace and depth of shot she gets from that compact body.

                Best of luck to us tonight Shari ......let's root Roger into the Semis!
                Comment
                • losschaser
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 10-15-13
                  • 723

                  #9
                  Going big on Federer myself. Will bet once Nadal / Dimitrov finishes
                  Comment
                  • Scottish
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 12-21-10
                    • 588

                    #10
                    I'm staying away from this match, Murray isn't in great shape i totally agree with you on that but my concern is if he just makes Federer play enough balls he might beat himself.
                    Comment
                    • matt1216
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 10-27-11
                      • 14683

                      #11
                      Magic, when Murray lost to Tsonga and Mayer, that was his 1st and 3rd match back after sergery. Did you forget, he destroyed Wawrinka in his 2nd match. Also MDF, he threw his game against Hewitt so he could make his time and have a few days off @ the Aussie open .Trust me I watched....Mayer is tricky as well, we know because ferrer had to grind him down like he did vs Berdych for his level to drop.... I like your pick a Little bit on Federer. The motivation is there. I will throw out a warning to anyone wagering against Murrayi think this will be a ball sweater to see who wins
                      Comment
                      • MagicDiceFlow
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-15-12
                        • 4585

                        #12
                        Originally posted by matt1216
                        Magic, when Murray lost to Tsonga and Mayer, that was his 1st and 3rd match back after sergery. Did you forget, he destroyed Wawrinka in his 2nd match. Also MDF, he threw his game against Hewitt so he could make his time and have a few days off @ the Aussie open .Trust me I watched....Mayer is tricky as well, we know because ferrer had to grind him down like he did vs Berdych for his level to drop.... I like your pick a Little bit on Federer. The motivation is there. I will throw out a warning to anyone wagering against Murrayi think this will be a ball sweater to see who wins
                        I'm looking forward to the match. This may be another barn burner which means probably staying up til 6am fourth night in a row but it will be worth it.

                        GL Matt
                        Comment
                        • matt1216
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 10-27-11
                          • 14683

                          #13
                          Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow
                          I'm looking forward to the match. This may be another barn burner which means probably staying up til 6am fourth night in a row but it will be worth it.

                          GL Matt
                          Yeah I think so. I had 3 hours of sleep befor work watching djoker/wawrinka... I don't mind, it's only 2 weeks out of the year.

                          GL man
                          Comment
                          • Jago2008
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-18-11
                            • 3047

                            #14
                            Also on this bet heavy. Not to sure I like being in such a one-sided SBR affair, but there's no taking away from what Federer is doing, and I agree with your write-up.

                            Good luck to us
                            Comment
                            • lucullus
                              SBR MVP
                              • 09-16-13
                              • 1027

                              #15
                              I have a small play on Murray to win
                              Comment
                              • yisman
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 09-01-08
                                • 75682

                                #16
                                Grand Slam titles are the only thing that will add more to this man's legacy and that's all he cares about tennis wise in his life at this point.


                                I would agree with that. However, it's been over a year and a half.
                                [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                [/quote]

                                [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                Comment
                                • No coincidences
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-18-10
                                  • 76300

                                  #17
                                  Anyone not betting Fed in this match? LOL.

                                  Good luck MDF.
                                  Comment
                                  • yisman
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 09-01-08
                                    • 75682

                                    #18
                                    Heritage is taking a position on Federer.

                                    They've now made Murray +130. Pinnacle has +122.
                                    [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                    [/quote]

                                    [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                    Comment
                                    • losschaser
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 10-15-13
                                      • 723

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow
                                      Ticket Details :
                                      Wager Type : Money Line
                                      Wager Status : Pending
                                      Risk / To Win Amount : 2,500.00 / 2000.00(USD)
                                      Accepted : 1/21/2014 4:08AM - PST



                                      Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
                                      Selection : R. Federer
                                      Time : 1/21/2014 4:00:01PM - (PST)
                                      Line : -125
                                      Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

                                      Well my friend I am joining you with $2,200 on Federer

                                      Lets go Federer
                                      Comment
                                      • MagicDiceFlow
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-15-12
                                        • 4585

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by yisman
                                        Heritage is taking a position on Federer.

                                        They've now made Murray +130. Pinnacle has +122.

                                        Yep, I see Heritage got Fed at -150 now.
                                        Comment
                                        • MagicDiceFlow
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-15-12
                                          • 4585

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by losschaser
                                          Well my friend I am joining you with $2,200 on Federer

                                          Lets go Federer

                                          Let's do this Chaser ......Go Roger!

                                          Comment
                                          • poet
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 08-11-13
                                            • 796

                                            #22
                                            550 on Rodger myself. I have a feeling this match won't be as close as people think.
                                            Comment
                                            • yisman
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 09-01-08
                                              • 75682

                                              #23
                                              Line is holding steady. Almost no movement the last hour or so.

                                              Heritage still with the best price for Murray of any sportsbook

                                              edit: DSI just went to +135
                                              [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                              [/quote]

                                              [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                              Comment
                                              • MagicDiceFlow
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-15-12
                                                • 4585

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by yisman
                                                Line is holding steady. Almost no movement the last hour or so.

                                                Heritage still with the best price for Murray of any sportsbook

                                                edit: DSI just went to +135
                                                It's going to top out at Fed -150

                                                I'm interested to see what Heritage's so called "Reduced Juice for Australian Open Special" for tomorrow and Friday will be. They claim a "dime line" but I'm not sure how that's going to work out.
                                                Comment
                                                • Honeybadger44
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-03-14
                                                  • 1675

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow
                                                  Ticket Details :
                                                  Wager Type : Money Line
                                                  Wager Status : Pending
                                                  Risk / To Win Amount : 2,500.00 / 2000.00(USD)
                                                  Accepted : 1/21/2014 4:08AM - PST



                                                  Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
                                                  Selection : R. Federer
                                                  Time : 1/21/2014 4:00:01PM - (PST)
                                                  Line : -125
                                                  Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

                                                  Obviously, when you fire 2,5k on a single bet, you know what you are talking about, because otherwise, you wouldn't have such large bankroll to work with... Anyway, I think that a good case for taking Murray at these odds could be made as well. Everyone is impressed with how Roger looked so far, but I think that Murray has weapons to take him to the limit here. Andy is one of the best returners and if he finds rhythm and find anwsers to Roger's serve, it should be a very interesting one. Also, if you noticed. RF is much more aggressive, when it comes to approching the net. He does it more often and even, when approach shots are not that good. And what Murray loves? He loves the target of course... It seems those are too small of a details to make difference, but I disagree. Such things can make difference. I am thinking about taking Murray +2 games.

                                                  Anyway, good luck to all!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Optional
                                                    Administrator
                                                    • 06-10-10
                                                    • 61589

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow
                                                    Now for Federer, you can also say that he lost to Hewitt but I believe Roger gifted that title to his friend Lleyton.
                                                    Are they that good a friends? (asking not arguing)

                                                    I know Fed doesn't despise him as a classless brat anymore, but think that's almost hilarious if it's turned around to the point they are such friends Rog would gift him anything more than a kick in the bum
                                                    .
                                                    Comment
                                                    • MagicDiceFlow
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-15-12
                                                      • 4585

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Optional
                                                      Are they that good a friends? (asking not arguing)

                                                      I know Fed doesn't despise him as a classless brat anymore, but think that's almost hilarious if it's turned around to the point they are such friends Rog would gift him anything more than a kick in the bum
                                                      They're friends now. The recent ROGERS AND FRIENDS charity tournament, Hewitt was invited and spoke at the benefit.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • matt1216
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 10-27-11
                                                        • 14683

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Optional
                                                        Are they that good a friends? (asking not arguing)

                                                        I know Fed doesn't despise him as a classless brat anymore, but think that's almost hilarious if it's turned around to the point they are such friends Rog would gift him anything more than a kick in the bum
                                                        They are very good friends. They practice almost every off season they get.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Optional
                                                          Administrator
                                                          • 06-10-10
                                                          • 61589

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow

                                                          They're friends now. The recent ROGERS AND FRIENDS charity tournament, Hewitt was invited and spoke at the benefit.
                                                          Originally posted by matt1216

                                                          They are very good friends. They practice almost every off season they get.
                                                          Guess I am way behind the times
                                                          .
                                                          Comment
                                                          • shari91
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 02-23-10
                                                            • 32661

                                                            #30
                                                            One more set to go! Come onnnnnnnnnn Fed
                                                            Comment
                                                            • matt1216
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 10-27-11
                                                              • 14683

                                                              #31
                                                              umm, wtf just happened?? Fed u shit pump . 4 straight points to lose
                                                              Comment
                                                              • BigPage25
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 04-17-12
                                                                • 3571

                                                                #32
                                                                Thanks for the play Magic! Solid capping as usuall bro!!!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • lucasdawg
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-19-13
                                                                  • 3399

                                                                  #33
                                                                  bammmm well done everyone ! thanks MDF nice call
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Zirek
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 02-14-13
                                                                    • 19

                                                                    #34
                                                                    :d big wins
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • PAYTON20
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 02-02-10
                                                                      • 5217

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Somebody get MDF a fire extinguisher. Congrats man


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