Adam's Tennis Picks!

[adam3248]

I have decided to create a new thread to document my future picks and records. I rarely posted in my previous thread due to other commitments but showed a profit overall (20-14 +6.22 Units). As I now have more time to post on here, I will be sharing my thoughts and picks more regularly. Here's to another profitable season!

[matt1216]

good luck Adam!

[Bet10Heinekens]

Welcome to the board :

[boss_of_um]

Good luck bud! Cheers!

[adam3248]

I currently have three bets pending on the Australian Open:

1) Novak Djokovic to win outright (-120) Risking 2.4 Units to win 2 Units.

2) Tomas Berdych to win the 3rd quarter (+110) Risking 2 Units to win 2.2 Units.

3) Roberto Bautista-Agut to win vs Benoit Paire & Stanislas Wawrinka to win vs Tommy Robredo (+100) Risking 1.5 Units to win 1.5 Units.

[adam3248]

3) Roberto Bautista-Agut to win vs Benoit Paire & Stanislas Wawrinka to win vs Tommy Robredo (+100) Risking 1.5 Units to win 1.5 Units.

Nice to kick off the thread with a win as Bautista-Agut & Wawrinka both win in straight sets.

I have one pick for tonight's matches which I will post shortly..

Record: 1-0 +1.5 Units.

[Dmoneytx]

What's up Adam?????!! I gave you props in my thread man! We kicked ass on Wawa to finish up both of our parlays!!!!!!!!!

HELL YA!!!!

BOL today man & GO NINERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[adam3248]

Roberto Bautista-Agut to win at least a set vs Grigor Dimitrov & Roger Federer to win vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+110) Risking 1.5 Units to win 1.65 Units.

Bautista-Agut has been the surprise package of the tournament so far, with his most impressive victory coming against Del Potro in Round 2, where he faught back from a 2-1 set deficit to prevail 3-2. He backed up that impressive performance with a comfortable straight sets victory over an inconsistent Benoit Paire in Round 3. Dimitrov played some great tennis in his previous round match against Raonic, resulting in a 3-1 victory for the Bulgarian. Although this is the first time either player has progressed to the fourth round of a Grand Slam, they find themselves in different situations heading into this match. There has been a lot of 'hype' surrounding Dimitrov for several years now, and so far he has failed to reach the heights that many experts had predicted. He has a great opportunity to progress to his first Grand Slam quarter-final here and expectations will be high. However, with expectation comes pressure, and that could work against Dimitrov here as Bautista-Agut has exceeded expectations already this tournament and can afford to employ a 'nothing to lose' mentality, which will allow him to play with a degree of freedom that will make him a dangerous prospect for Dimitrov. Bautista-Agut has a genuine chance off pulling off another big win here. I expect this match to go the distance, so instead of taking Bautista-Agut to win the match, I will be backing the Spaniard to win at least a set.

Federer and Tsonga have built an interesting rivalry over the last two or three years, facing each other 10 times since 2011, with Federer prevailing on 7 of those occasions. From their previous 13 encounters, 6 of them have gone 5 sets including 3 of their previous 4 meetings. Federer defeated Tsonga in the quarter-finals here last year in a five set thriller. However, since then, Federer has struggled against Top 10 opponents winning just 3 of his previous 13 respective matches. The sequence of losses vs Top 10 opponents included a straight sets defeat to Tsonga at Rolland Garros last year. In fact, Federer lost 10 straight vs Top 10 opponents before winning his 3 most recent encounters. Those 3 wins all came in his final two tournaments of 2013 which show that he is still a dangerous opponent. Both players have progressed to this stage of the tournament with relative ease and I predict another close encounter here in what could be the match of the tournament so far. Could easily be another epic five-setter here, but I think Federer will do enough to prevail, advancing to yet another Grand Slam quarter-final.

[adam3248]

What's up Adam?????!! I gave you props in my thread man! We kicked ass on Wawa to finish up both of our parlays!!!!!!!!!

HELL YA!!!!

BOL today man & GO NINERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Haha! I checked your thread out earlier D.. Nice win for us both! If only they could all win that comfortably!

Best of luck with your picks for tonight!

(Getting pumped up for this Niners/Seahawks game now! It's almost time!)

Lets go Niners! QuestForSix!

[adam3248]

Roberto Bautista-Agut to win at least a set vs Grigor Dimitrov & Roger Federer to win vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+110) Risking 1.5 Units to win 1.65 Units.

Just the one pick from me last night which resulted in a win! Bautista-Agut responded well after losing the opening set against Dimitrov, winning the 2nd set and levelling the match before losing by a 3-1 scoreline. Federer dominated in a match that many expected to go the distance. Tsonga under-performed to say the least, and Federer played well throughout, resulting in a straight sets victory.

I have one pick pending for tonight as I tipped Berdych to win the 3rd Quarter earlier in the tournament at +110.

I have no other picks for tonight's games.

Record: 2-0 +3.15 Units.

[adam3248]

Tomas Berdych to win the 3rd quarter (+110) Risking 2 Units to win 2.2 Units.

Another comfortable winner really.. Berdych progressed through the early rounds with relative ease, his only real test coming against Ferrer in the QF's which he won by 3 sets to 1.

My final pending pick is on Djokovic to win outright at -120, which is still looking good as he won his opening 4 rounds in straight sets, and has just closed out the opening set of his QF match against Wawrinka by 6 games to 2.

Record: 3-0 +5.35 Units.

[adam3248]

Novak Djokovic to win outright (-120) Risking 2.4 Units to win 2 Units.

All I can say is hats off to Wawrinka..

Record: 3-1 (75%) +2.95 Units.

I will post my picks for tonight soon..

[adam3248]

Simona Halep to win vs Dominika Cibulkova & Andy Murray vs Roger Federer total games: Over 39.5 (+169) Risking 1 Unit to win 1.69 Units.

Cibulkova pulled off a big upset earlier on in the tournament, beating Sharapova 2-1 after losing the opening set. She followed up that impressive win with a 6-1 6-0 demolition of 16th seed Suarez-Navarro. She is understandably playing with a lot of confidence right now and is a dangerous opponent for anyone in this form. She possesses powerful groundstrokes which were showcased in her win over Sharapova. When she manages to hit lines regularly, she is virtually unplayable. However, one element of Cibulkova's game which often lets her down is inconsistency. She can often experience long passages of play where she produces multiple unforced errors, which at this stage of a grand slam, could be costly. Cibulkova leads Halep 2-1 in the head-to-head series, although all 3 meetings came before the emergence of Halep in the second half of last season. Halep may not be capable of matching the power that Cibulkova possesses but she is the more consistent of the two players in my opinion. Potential 3-setter here but i'm going with Halep to progress to her first Grand Slam semi-final.

Well, Murray vs Federer is the true definition of a 'coin-flip' with both players listed at -110 to win the match. It's so difficult to pick the winner of this one! Murray is the better player on paper but Federer is in better form to start the year, showing glimpses of the Federer of a few years ago (which is an exciting prospect). Federer has been talking positively about his game all week and appears to have a level of confidence back which was missing for long periods of 2013. I expected Federer to be tested more in his previous round matchup with Tsonga which had the potential to be another epic 5-setter. However, Federer had other ideas, dominating from start to finish to record a fourth consecutive straight-sets victory. I'll be surprised if we see the same result here against Murray though. Tsonga is arguably the worst returner in the Top 10 and Murray is arguably the best (or 2nd best) in that department. Murray has played pretty well so far this tournament but has had the easiest passage to the quarter-finals of the top seeded players and is yet to be truly tested. I can't see either player running away with this match and will be surprised if we don't see at least 4 tight sets. For that reason, i'm picking 'over 39.5 match games' as I expect something like a 6-4, 6-7, 7-5, 6-3 scoreline which would be more than enough to cash the 'over' in 4 sets.

[lucasdawg]

nice write up bol

[adam3248]

Rafael Nadal to win outright (-120) Risking 2.4 Units to win 2 Units.

This is the first time i've ever backed in the 'outright winner' market twice in the same tournament, and I have my reasons for doing so. I saw Nadal as a significant threat in the outright market at the start of the tournament for obvious reasons. However, I picked Djokovic to win outright instead after details of the draw were announced. I saw Berdych and Wawrinka as the only geniune threats to Djokovic in his half of the draw and saw multiple threats in Nadal's half. Of course, Wawrinka defeated Djokovic earlier today, in another epic 5-set encounter. With Djokovic now out of the tournament, I am confident that Nadal will win the title. His route to the quarter-finals hasn't been as difficult as the draw suggested on paper. With Del Potro being knocked out early, Nadal's only test so far has been against Nishikori, where Nadal prevailed in 3 tight sets. Murray and Federer still remain in Nadal's half of the draw which isn't ideal, but I expect their match to go the distance which could benefit Nadal. I think Dimitrov will only take 1 set off Nadal at most, and think Nadal would prevail against Murray or Federer. In which case, I would favour Nadal in the final over Wawrinka or Berdych. I predict Nadal to beat Wawrinka in the final.

[lucullus]

I dont know about Nadal, he made me nervous when he played Nishi. But he did had hand problem.

[adam3248]

Simona Halep to win vs Dominika Cibulkova & Andy Murray vs Roger Federer total games: Over 39.5 (+169) Risking 1 Unit to win 1.69 Units

Really disappointing performance from Halep losing in straight sets. Reminded me why I rarely bet on womens tennis.

Record: 3-2 (60%) +1.95 Units.