GreatD Tennis Punts

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  • greatd
    SBR Hustler
    • 01-25-13
    • 95

    #1
    GreatD Tennis Punts
    Hi all,

    I have been toying with the idea of starting a thread to stir up some banter around the picks i like. I will often chat about them before I lock them in and put cash down. I do not profess to be a professional, nor do i expect to get everything right all of the time. But in the long run i seem to do ok, so here we go.

    My style is that i bet on relatively short favorites that i think have a very small chance of going missing, and as a result i see relative value (even in their short odds).

    I know that this is not everyone's cup of tea, but it works for me! I like to keep my hit rate up as high as possible. I will split my bank into 20 units, so we have some ammo to play with should the luck start turning!

    I will be posting my record as i go along so people can either laugh at me or throw me praise

    I welcome the differences of opinion, and differing views. So BOL to all, and lets see if we can make some cash.
  • greatd
    SBR Hustler
    • 01-25-13
    • 95

    #2
    Punts I am looking at:

    Del Potro bt Mahut @ 1.17 Pinnacle

    Delpo is on a different level to Mahut, granted Mahut had a good win last time out against Harrison, and delpo has not played since the masters last year. He went down in 3 to Djoko and Fed, so he was clearly near the top of his game. He needs some practice ahead of the Aussie open to blow off the cobwebs, so he will not want to go home first round here, as it will be a waste. Mahut will simply have no match for Delpo's weapons even if he is only firing at 50%. The odds are not very enticing, but i'm happy to take them.

    Isner bt Lacko @ 1.37 Pinnacle

    Lacko is always a mixed bag, and can be very unpredictable. He had to qualify here, and has beaten 3 New Zealanders en route to the 2nd round, none of them particularly good. Isner is obviously a different calibre. Isner posesses a serve to really hurt lacko, and i think that this price is rather generous.

    Kohlschreiber bt Zeballos @ 1.26 Pinnacle

    Kohlschreiber has definitely shown signs of rustiness, he got rolled by fellow German Gojowczyk, but he is slowly getting himself back on track with a win over carreno-busta. Zeballos is a clay courter and is not at home on the hard courts of Aus. Kohli should see this one out.

    Stepanek bt Ramos @ 1.3 Pinnacle

    Ramos got into the maindraw as a lucky loser, and managed to beat an out of sorts and very rusty Querrey. He is an out and out clay courter and hard courts are definitely not his strong suit. Stepanek on the other hand has been around for ages, and has been in good form recently at the Hopman cup, beating Raonic and missing out to an on Fire Tsonga. I like these odds for Stepanek to take this one.
    Comment
    • greatd
      SBR Hustler
      • 01-25-13
      • 95

      #3
      (1) Del Potro bt Mahut 1U @ 1.17 Pinnacle
      (2) Stepanek bt Ramos 1U @ 1.3 Pinnacle
      Comment
      • greatd
        SBR Hustler
        • 01-25-13
        • 95

        #4
        Aus Open Quallies that interest me:

        Gojowczyk bt Olivetti @ 1.33 Pinnacle

        Gojo is in pretty good form at the moment as he went deep in Doha last week. He comes up against a clay courter ranked quite a long way below him. He looks to be on the up and should have enough here to take out Olivetti. I am just not sure about the price as the bookies seem to have priced his last weeks performance into this price.

        Goffin bt Giustino @ 1.31 Pinnacle

        Goffin is a different level of player really, he should easily take care of Giustino here. Giustino has been on tour for quite some time and has not shown anything yet especially on hard courts. Goffin on the other hand has shown bits of great play but has not yet carried on through with it yet. He will be pumped up to make the main draw this year.
        Comment
        • Bet10Heinekens
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-10-13
          • 10567

          #5
          Goffin still recovering from an injury
          Comment
          • greatd
            SBR Hustler
            • 01-25-13
            • 95

            #6
            Originally posted by Bet10Heinekens
            Goffin still recovering from an injury
            Cheers mate, good to know, will stay away then.

            Will leave gojo alone too I think, price a little on the sharp side.
            Comment
            • greatd
              SBR Hustler
              • 01-25-13
              • 95

              #7
              (3) Mathieu bt Wang 1u @ 1.41 Pinnacle
              Comment
              • Dmoneytx
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 02-09-12
                • 6450

                #8
                What's up greatd? Glad to have you aboard sir It is always nice to have more tennis people on this site. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to stop by my thread. BOL!!!
                Comment
                • greatd
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 01-25-13
                  • 95

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Dmoneytx
                  What's up greatd? Glad to have you aboard sir It is always nice to have more tennis people on this site. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to stop by my thread. BOL!!!
                  Hey Dmoney, cheers mate, good to see you back. Hope to pick up a few winners!
                  Comment
                  • greatd
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 01-25-13
                    • 95

                    #10
                    (4) Robert bt Gigounon 1U @ 1.35 Pinnacle

                    Robert is an old hand these days and knows how to grind out matches. His experience should take him through here against a player that is currently just off his highest ranking, 100 odd places below him. Robert has played in many Grand slams and often has had to come through quallies. Muscle memory should get him up here
                    Comment
                    • greatd
                      SBR Hustler
                      • 01-25-13
                      • 95

                      #11
                      Originally posted by greatd
                      (1) Del Potro bt Mahut 1U @ 1.17 Pinnacle W + 0.17
                      (2) Stepanek bt Ramos 1U @ 1.3 Pinnacle W + 0.3
                      RECORD: 2-0-0
                      STAKED: 2u
                      RETURN: + 0.47u
                      Comment
                      • greatd
                        SBR Hustler
                        • 01-25-13
                        • 95

                        #12
                        (5) Matosevic bt Stakhovsky 1u @ 1.65 Pinnacle

                        Matosevic is finding some form here at home and will be pumped up to go deep in this tournament. He has shown he has the ability to beat great players and he should have the game to get past Stakhovsky here.
                        Comment
                        • greatd
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 01-25-13
                          • 95

                          #13
                          Originally posted by greatd
                          (3) Mathieu bt Wang 1u @ 1.41 Pinnacle L -1u
                          (4) Robert bt Gigounon 1U @ 1.35 Pinnacle W + 0.35u
                          (5) Matosevic bt Stakhovsky 1u @ 1.65 Pinnacle L -1u
                          RECORD: 3-2-0
                          STAKED: 5u
                          RETURN: - 1.18u
                          Comment
                          • greatd
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 01-25-13
                            • 95

                            #14
                            (6) Klizan bt Couacaud 1u @ 1.21 Pinnacle
                            Comment
                            • greatd
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 01-25-13
                              • 95

                              #15
                              (7) Monaco bt Thompson 1u @ 1.36 Pinnacle
                              (8) Verdasco bt Kyrgios 1u @ 1.35 Pinnacle

                              I know these are both in exhibition matches, but both these players are top players and can push the very best when they have their days, even though they are both at home on clay. They are however playing against a couple of Aussie teenagers in front of their home crowds. They should have the class to out gun these youngsters.
                              Comment
                              • greatd
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 01-25-13
                                • 95

                                #16
                                (9) Isner bt Lu 1u @ 1.45 Pinnacle
                                (10) Del Potro bt Tomic 1u @ 1.3 Pinnacle
                                Comment
                                • greatd
                                  SBR Hustler
                                  • 01-25-13
                                  • 95

                                  #17
                                  (11) Youzhny bt Struff 1u @ 1.27 Pinnacle
                                  (12) Anderson bt Vesely 1u @ 1.4
                                  Comment
                                  • greatd
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 01-25-13
                                    • 95

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by greatd
                                    (6) Klizan bt Couacaud 1u @ 1.21 Pinnacle W +0.21u
                                    (7) Monaco bt Thompson 1u @ 1.36 Pinnacle L -1u
                                    (8) Verdasco bt Kyrgios 1u @ 1.35 Pinnacle W +0.35u
                                    (9) Isner bt Lu 1u @ 1.45 Pinnacle W +0.45u
                                    (10) Del Potro bt Tomic 1u @ 1.3 Pinnacle W +0.3u
                                    (11) Youzhny bt Struff 1u @ 1.27 Pinnacle W +0.27u
                                    (12) Anderson bt Vesely 1u @ 1.4 W +0.4u
                                    RECORD: 9-3-0
                                    STAKED: 12u
                                    RETURN: - 0.2u
                                    Comment
                                    • greatd
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 01-25-13
                                      • 95

                                      #19
                                      (13) Stepanek bt Kavcic 1u @ 1.27 Pinnacle

                                      Stepanek has the all round game and experience to take out Kavcic here. Kavcic is much more at home on clay, and the pace and bounce of these AO courts will not suit him. Stepanek has been in pretty decent form of late and pushed delpo last week in Sydney.
                                      Comment
                                      • greatd
                                        SBR Hustler
                                        • 01-25-13
                                        • 95

                                        #20
                                        (14) Lu bt Wang 1u @ 1.27 Pinnacle
                                        (15) Dimitrov bt Klahn 1u @ 1.22 Pinnacle
                                        Comment
                                        • greatd
                                          SBR Hustler
                                          • 01-25-13
                                          • 95

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by greatd
                                          (13) Stepanek bt Kavcic 1u @ 1.27 Pinnacle L -1u
                                          (14) Lu bt Wang 1u @ 1.27 Pinnacle W +0.27u
                                          (15) Dimitrov bt Klahn 1u @ 1.22 Pinnacle W +0.22u
                                          Am gutted about Stepanek as he was bloody up when he retired but i suppose thats tennis. F$%k.

                                          RECORD: 11-4-0

                                          STAKED: 15u
                                          RETURN: - 0.71u
                                          Comment
                                          • greatd
                                            SBR Hustler
                                            • 01-25-13
                                            • 95

                                            #22
                                            (16) Gasquet bt Davydenko 1u @1.3 Pinnacle
                                            (17) Pospisil bt Ebden 1u @ 1.45 Pinnacle
                                            (18) Verdasco bt Gabashvili 1u @ 1.2 Pinnacle
                                            (19) Paire bt Kyrgios 1u @ 1.38 Pinnacle
                                            (20) Tsonga bt Gabashvili 1u @ 1.15 Pinnacle
                                            Comment
                                            • greatd
                                              SBR Hustler
                                              • 01-25-13
                                              • 95

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by greatd
                                              (16) Gasquet bt Davydenko 1u @1.3 Pinnacle W +0.3u
                                              (17) Pospisil bt Ebden 1u @ 1.45 Pinnacle W +0.45u
                                              RECORD: 13-4-0
                                              STAKED: 17u
                                              RETURN: + 0.04u
                                              Comment
                                              • greatd
                                                SBR Hustler
                                                • 01-25-13
                                                • 95

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by greatd
                                                (18) Verdasco bt Gabashvili 1u @ 1.2 Pinnacle L -1u
                                                (19) Paire bt Kyrgios 1u @ 1.38 Pinnacle W +0.38u
                                                (20) Tsonga bt Gabashvili 1u @ 1.15 Pinnacle W +0.15u
                                                Awww, that was a bad beat on Verdasco! Jeepers...

                                                RECORD: 15-5-0

                                                STAKED: 20u
                                                RETURN: -0.43u
                                                Comment
                                                • Hardcoar
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 02-17-13
                                                  • 15606

                                                  #25
                                                  I don't recall Konga playing Tey'Razzzz
                                                  Comment
                                                  • greatd
                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                    • 01-25-13
                                                    • 95

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                                    I don't recall Konga playing Tey'Razzzz
                                                    Aha, thanks! You are correct, obv meant to be bellucci. Apologies, brain still reeling from verdasco meltdown!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • greatd
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 01-25-13
                                                      • 95

                                                      #27
                                                      (21) Ferrer bt Chardy 1u @ 1.39 Pinnacle
                                                      Comment
                                                      • greatd
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 01-25-13
                                                        • 95

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by greatd
                                                        (21) Ferrer bt Chardy 1u @ 1.39 Pinnacle W +0.39u
                                                        RECORD: 16-5-0
                                                        STAKED: 21u
                                                        RETURN: -0.04u
                                                        Comment
                                                        • greatd
                                                          SBR Hustler
                                                          • 01-25-13
                                                          • 95

                                                          #29
                                                          (22) Tsonga bt Simon 1u @ 1.19 Pinnacle
                                                          Comment
                                                          • yatescutler
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 11-13-13
                                                            • 100

                                                            #30
                                                            edit
                                                            Comment
                                                            • greatd
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 01-25-13
                                                              • 95

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by greatd
                                                              (22) Tsonga bt Simon 1u @ 1.19 Pinnacle W +0.19u
                                                              RECORD: 17-5-0
                                                              STAKED: 22u
                                                              RETURN: +0.15u
                                                              Comment
                                                              • greatd
                                                                SBR Hustler
                                                                • 01-25-13
                                                                • 95

                                                                #32
                                                                (23) Tsonga +2.5 sets bt Federer 1u @ 1.31 Pinnacle
                                                                Comment
                                                                • greatd
                                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                                  • 01-25-13
                                                                  • 95

                                                                  #33
                                                                  (24) Haider-Maurer bt Kern 1u @ 1.32 Pinnacle (Heilbronn Challenger)

                                                                  Haider-Maurer had a good season last year and will look to make a good start here in Germany. He play a local here in the 1st round who is ranked far below him and he should come through this one unscathed.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • greatd
                                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                                    • 01-25-13
                                                                    • 95

                                                                    #34
                                                                    (25) Sjisling bt Kravchuk 1u @ 1.25 William Hill
                                                                    (26) Kavcic bt Panfil 1u @ 1.5 Pinnacle
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • greatd
                                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                                      • 01-25-13
                                                                      • 95

                                                                      #35
                                                                      (27) Gonzalez bt Salamanca 1u @ 1.23 Pinnacle
                                                                      Comment
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