Nadal vs Monfils Duha Open 250 Final (Preview and discussion) thread

[ClutchOnandWin]

Head to Head Matches Rafael Nadal leads series 8-2
	Jan 2 2012		Doha ATP (QAT) Hard Court, SF		(4)Monfils(16,3.48) d (1)Nadal(2,4.91)		6-3 6-4	$4.522 $1.260	Recap match stats
	Apr 18 2011		Barcelona ATP (ESP) Clay, QF		(1)Nadal(1,6.37) d (7)Monfils(9,2.63)		6-2 6-2	$1.025 $21.300	Recap match stats
	Oct 4 2010		Tokyo ATP (JPN) Hard Court, F		(1)Nadal(1,4.69) d (5)Monfils(15,2.93)		6-1 7-5	$1.327 $3.832	Recap match stats
	May 9 2010		Madrid Masters 1000 (ESP) Clay, QF		(2)Nadal(3,6.20) d (12)Monfils(18,3.52)		6-1 6-3	$1.039 $17.240	Recap match stats
	Aug 31 2009		US Open ATP Slam (USA) Hard Court, R16		(3)Nadal(3,4.51) d (13)Monfils(13,3.62)		6-7(3) 6-3 6-1 6-3	$1.536 $2.832	Recap match stats
	Feb 9 2009		Rotterdam ATP (NED) Indoor Hard, SF		(1)Nadal(1,4.62) d (5)Monfils(12,3.39)		6-4 6-4	$1.251 $4.974	Recap match stats
	Jan 5 2009		Doha ATP (QAT) Hard Court, QF		(5)(WC)Monfils(13,2.65) d (1)Nadal(1,5.29)		6-4 6-4	$10.658 $1.103	Recap match stats
	Oct 27 2008		Paris Masters 1000 (FRA) Indoor Hard, R16		(1)Nadal(1,4.99) d (16)Monfils(16,2.89)		6-3 6-2	$1.230 $5.350	Recap match stats
	May 8 2006		Rome Masters 1000 (ITA) Clay, SF		(2)Nadal(2,5.26) d Monfils(35,2.85)		6-2 6-2		Recap match stats
	Apr 11 2005		Monte Carlo Masters 1000 (MON) Clay, R64		(11)Nadal(17,3.39) d (WC)Monfils(106,0.62)		6-3 6-2		Recap match stats

Their most recent match, which is very relevant because it has Monfils currently playing to that similarly ridiculous level. What an athlete!

[BankHead]

^LOL

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[ClutchOnandWin]

Monfils to beat Rafael Nadal @3.00 with Pinnacle (Using 3 units)

Monfils is probably in the top 5 for athletism in the men's game. The one thing he lacks however is fitness, the fitness to continuously execute his game at around the highest level to compete with top 8 or so player's in the world. However it's the start of the season and he is fully fit and fresh.

With this athletism comes counterpunching brilliance and shotmaking of the highest calibre. The athletism allows him to stay with Rafa from the baseline and if he has any brain, avoid the blokes hugely heavy whipped forehand. The court's are fairly slow, so this matchup will come down to how often Monfils can avoid hitting it into the Rafa forehand or allowing Rafa to get his forehand into practise and thus dictate the matters in proceedings. Rafa's game centers around his forehand and without it, he is drastically less of a player.

I believe Monfils has a better backhand than Rafa, one that can do more damage on a consisent basis and so for Rafa to attack either wing of Monfils's, he's unlikely to get many "shallow" balls with Monfils in this form. Counter aggressively Monfils can do all sorts of damage off both the forehand and backhand wing and Rafa is more limited to counter aggressiveness on the forehand side. If they're rallying backhand to backhand, I'm sure Monfils in this form would be the one to prevail.

I think at the end of it all it will be the serve that gets Monfils over the line and the famous victory in this one. He just has that amazing knack of when inspired to produce those big bombs. Rafa is clutch on serve also, however doesn't have the pounding flat serve to win him points down the T. IMO Monfils has the athletism and movement to get the lefty Rafa serve that outswings wide after kicking up, because he has those magic limbs, ala Djokovic. You only beat Nadal if you put in an amazing service performance. Ask Rosol, ask Darcis, ask whoever has beaten him.

Monfils to get a set @1.8 (7 units)

[ClutchOnandWin]

Use this for the live action guys.

[gaebiskon]

clutchonandwin, do you bet on sports for a living?
i like your analysis very much though i dont like the odds you get on some of your bets

[ClutchOnandWin]

Yeah I do. Tennis mainly.

[gaebiskon]

Yeah I do. Tennis mainly.

are you in the states?
no pinny and matchbook for americans, right?

[ClutchOnandWin]

are you in the states?
no pinny and matchbook for americans, right?

DOn't insult me, I'm no American. I use Pinnacle, from the Great part of Britain.