Serbia vs Checz republic

[matt1216]

The line dropped a 1.00 in the last 24 hours 3.10 now 2.10....

[tipsadontlikehim]

Yep because Tipsa is a wimp that's why

[tipsadontlikehim]

Tomorrow i'll definitely take the OVER games on Djokovic/Stepanek, this old Stepanek is a poison in Davis cup especially on fast surfaces.
But but, i don't have any cut yet !


Edit : 30.5 games, ...don'tlikeit! i was expecting 29 since Djoko odds are 1.02

[poet]

Tomorrow i'll definitely take the OVER games on Djokovic/Stepanek, this old Stepanek is a poison in Davis cup especially on fast surfaces.
But but, i don't have any cut yet !


Edit : 30.5 games, ...don'tlikeit! i was expecting 29 since Djoko odds are 1.02

I like people who don't like a lot of things Tipsadon't like it.

[frugalgambler]

I see that Serbia is still a favorite. Lajovic will have a decent chance against Step. I am not sure if Djokovic will play doubles, probably not, but he might. The Serbian pair of Bozoljac/Zimojic is not a complete pushover and they will try to take Berdych/Step to 5 sets. Plus the home crowd factor might come into play. The odds are about -135 for Serbia right now. Congrats to Poet for snagging the Czechs at ~+200. I will probably bet match by match. These team events tend to make underdogs overperform: I would not be surprised if Step takes a set off Djokovic tomorrow (or takes him to a tie-break). More so with Lajovic against Berdych.

[frugalgambler]

Also, can anybody tell me which US-acepting books offer Davis Cup futures ? I know 5d does, but they took it off fast during the transition period and they are fast to react. Any other books ? Thanks.

[EaglesPhan36]

Doubles usually very pivotal in these match-ups. I'd expect Berdych-Stepanek to sub in for the Czechs in doubles. Probably be 1-1 at that point.

[poet]

Doubles usually very pivotal in these match-ups. I'd expect Berdych-Stepanek to sub in for the Czechs in doubles. Probably be 1-1 at that point.

Eagle, I don't know if you saw my earlier thread but would you hedge here. I stand to win around 1200-1300 and lose nothing if I let it ride on the Czech team.

[frugalgambler]

Doubles usually very pivotal in these match-ups. I'd expect Berdych-Stepanek to sub in for the Czechs in doubles. Probably be 1-1 at that point.

There is no doubt in that, EP36. The question is if Djoker will also sub for Bozoljac (and if he that will give Serbia a better chance).

[poet]

Also, can anybody tell me which US-acepting books offer Davis Cup futures ? I know 5d does, but they took it off fast during the transition period and they are fast to react. Any other books ? Thanks.

Frug, message me and I'll tell you.

[frugalgambler]

I would hedge here, poet. Btw, you keep ignoring my question regarding the book you used. Not cool. You owe for the FedCup insight.

[frugalgambler]

Frug, message me and I'll tell you.

Hmm, I already did that after the FedCup. OK, I will message again.

[poet]

Hmm, I already did that after the FedCup. OK, I will message again.

Not tech savvy, did not mean to ignore you. Sorry.

[EaglesPhan36]

No chance Djokovic subs in doubles IMO.

Hedging makes sense if you're guaranteeing yourself money with either result.

[frugalgambler]

Thanks a lot for your reply, poet. I have just sent you another PM, just to let you know when you have time to read it.

As for the match, I think this is almost a 50/50 proposition right now. Dogs like Lajovic have been known to step up big in Davis Cup or even FedCup. I am actually eyeing over on both of the tomorrow's matches: the lines are only 29 and 30.5 right now. Not sure if Stepanek will not be saving his strength after losing the first set, though. Lajovic will be playing his heart out. Let's see how big his heart is.

[frugalgambler]

No chance Djokovic subs in doubles IMO.

Hedging makes sense if you're guaranteeing yourself money with either result.

He has played doubles in Davis Cup before.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think the last two times he played back in 2011 & 2010 were both more sensible. Bozoljac has grown into his role as Zimonjic's partner quite well, I think. It may depend more on what the Czechs do. I don't like it seeing that this looks like it could take all five rubbers to decide. That means you're asking Djokovic to play three matches and he's already said he's exhausted heading into this thing. Doubles may not take quite as much a toll on the body, but it's still a couple more hours on-court and if they happen to lose with Djokovic in there .. then it's that much worse.

I know their coach won't hesitate to put him in, I just think it's a bad move strategically.

[frugalgambler]

I think you right, EP36. I do not think Djoker will play the doubles.

Hmm, after further consideration, I see quite some value in the Czech line at +110. Lajovic is young player who has never been in these situations and has not even played a top-20 player this year. Step should beat him if the match is tied at 2-2; Step has beaten Almagro and Monaco in Davis Cup matches already. So this all rests on Bozo-Zimonjic vs Berdych-Stepanek. Berdych is a better doubles player than Bozo (who is ranked ~250 in both singles and doubles). I think I will put a unit on the Czechs. Anybody has any further info on these matches ? Are Step and Berdych healthy ? They will never win Grand Slams, so this Cup should mean a lot to them.

[frugalgambler]

If I were Djokovic I would take Step to 4 or even 5 sets tomorrow. Their best chance is to hope Step gets tired during the doubles match or during the fifth match.

[EaglesPhan36]

As far as I know, everyone is as healthy as you'd expect at this point in the season. No "major" concerns, just fatigue & wear from the season.

[losschaser]

Most likely its going to be 1-1 after day 1. 2-1 Serbia after day 2. Then the Djokovic/Berdych match will be the decider, as more than likely Stepanek will beat Lajovic

Friday, 15 November
Novak Djokovic (SRB) v Radek Stepanek (CZE)
Dusan Lajovic (SRB) v Tomas Berdych (CZE)
Saturday, 16 November
Ilija Bozoljac/Nenad Zimonjic (SRB) v Jan Hajek/Lukas Rosol (CZE)
Sunday, 17 November
Novak Djokovic (SRB) v Tomas Berdych (CZE)
Dusan Lajovic (SRB) v Radek Stepanek (CZE)

[frugalgambler]

Losschaser, you are allowed to change your players prior to the Day 2 and 3 matches. Czechs will play Berdych/Stepanek in doubles; on paper, that pair is better than the Serbian pair.

[losschaser]

Losschaser, you are allowed to change your players prior to the Day 2 and 3 matches. Czechs will play Berdych/Stepanek in doubles; on paper, that pair is better than the Serbian pair.

Stepanek and Zimonjic are both grand slam winners. I dont see Berdych anymore of a threat in doubles than Bozoljac. Plus the Serbs beat the Bryan's earlier this year and play together very well.

[EaglesPhan36]

You're greatly underestimating Berdych if you don't rate him a better doubles player than Bozo. He's got a massive experience advantage in Davis Cup and he's played doubles w/Stepanek in DC almost every match-up the Czechs have had for three years. They win, includng beating Zimonjic-Bozo. Czechs have an edge in doubles if they choose Berdy/Stepanek and no reason not to believe they won't.

[frugalgambler]

Stepanek and Zimonjic are both grand slam winners. I dont see Berdych anymore of a threat in doubles than Bozoljac. Plus the Serbs beat the Bryan's earlier this year and play together very well.

LOL, the doubles Grand Slams do not count for sh.t. Anyway, listen to EP36 on that one, losschaser. I think -130 is a bad line for Serbia in this spot. And yes, Berdych is >>> Bozo. I think Djoker might still want to play the doubles. This Cup means a lot to him. If he does not, I think the Czechs will win 3-2. PS You do realize that the Czechs are the defending champions ?

[losschaser]

Defending champions means as much as home advantage: almost nothing

But yeah, if Djokovic plays doubles forget it, might as well hand the trophy to the Czechs

[frugalgambler]

Sorry, losschaser. I am not taking you seriously on this one, you did not even know that Berdych/Step will be playing the doubles. GL on your play. I am also rooting for Serbia, but realistically I think the Czechs have a >50% chance to win this.

[Taka]

Please help me out, I'm having hard time deciding what to do: http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...am-parlay.html

I'm rooting for Serbia, but I don't want my subjectivity to cost me...

Thanks!

[losschaser]

Sorry, losschaser. I am not taking you seriously on this one, you did not even know that Berdych/Step will be playing the doubles. GL on your play. I am also rooting for Serbia, but realistically I think the Czechs have a >50% chance to win this.

Well blame the official ATP website where I got the order of play from earlier today. We both know the doubles match is going to be pivotal so lets see who who is right.

[frugalgambler]

Good article http://tennis.si.com/2013/11/14/davi...ovak-djokovic/
Very likely Djoker will play the doubles. If not and they lose 2-3, he can only blame himself for not trying. But it is not clear if Djoker + Zimo can beat the Czechs, who are pretty good at doubles.

Also, will Djoker play at half-speed tomorrow, like he did against Gasquet ? Can Step cover ?

[tipsadontlikehim]

Stepanek/Berdych beat Zimonjic/Bozoljac in straight sets last year (on indoor clay).


For today, free bet

Djokovic - Stepanek: OVER 27 @1.57
1 Unit


WON

[Domestic]

Stepanek/Berdych beat Zimonjic/Bozoljac in straight sets last year (on indoor clay).


For today, free bet

Djokovic - Stepanek: OVER 27 @1.57
1 Unit

I took over 28.5 @ 1.90, good luck to us.

[tipsadontlikehim]

I took over 28.5 @ 1.90, good luck to us.

Yep my friend

[Demonata]

I'm on over 29 stepanek match. Lets get this.

[Taka]

What odds do you guys expect after tonight? Assuming it's 1-1. They will open back the "series" lines after each day, right?