EP36's Rule of Three

[EaglesPhan36]

Hey fellas. Starting a new thread because I am trying something new with a new bankroll. I have been reading a lot on the number of bets being made & thinking about my own and have realized that building a bankroll cannot be done consistently without pacing yourself. So my new way of life with this bankroll is to enforce the Rule of Three on myself. No more than 3 wagers per day. PERIOD.

I am posting here because a lot of my wagers will probably be tennis related & I don't want to clutter the other forums. So this is for tracking purposes for myself and ya know, whatever you think of the selections. I will be tracking all of this on a new spreadsheet. My EP36's Aces thread will no longer be used. Sorry for the clutter.


[2.13]
#1: Tsonga +160
Nadal has been battling to survive so far in Rotterdam. Bolleli gifted him in the 1st round with lots of break opps. Nadal turned it on and won a tough match against a qualifier in the 2nd. Tsonga played well in the 1st round, but ran up against a qualifier playing really well. He then dispatched Tursonov with relative ease. Tsonga must serve very well here & hit some big winners. The surface favors his game & Nadal needs to bring his A-Game to win today.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2.13]
#2: St.Peter's @ Rider OVER 131
The over is hitting at around 70% in Rider's last 55 home games. That includes a 5 of 7 clip this season. These two teams combined for 145 points on January 25th at a neutral site. Rider shot nearly 52% from the floor and hit 12/24 from distance that day for 78 points. St.Peter's 67 points that night is one of their best outputs this season. Both teams are yielding about 69 ppg over their last 5, while Rider has bumped their scoring average up to 74 ppg during that span. So long as Rider controls the tempo & keeps it up, they should push this along into an over situation.

#3: Vancouver @ Dallas OVER 5.5 (-115)
Canucks have hit the OVER in 8 of 10 and yielded at least 3 goals in 9 of 10. Canucks have scored at least 3 goals in 6 straight and a total of 27 goals in that span. Their PP has been lethal with tallies in 6 straight. Dallas PK unit is still in the bottom 5. Vancouver's not much better at #25. Dallas PP been boom or bust, so hopefully some BOOM tonight! Lastly, we have JASON LaBarbera starting on Friday the 13th. JASON on Friday the 13th! Hopefully his horror show continues, his last 5 games have seen totals at 6 or more in 4 of 5. That one was against the Stars, but they did pepper him with shots.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cancelling the Canucks/Stars play.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2.13]
#3: Rookies/Sophomores OVER 123 - 2nd half
Just a hunch as they hit 119 in the 1st half with some lulls in scoring. Might be the dumbest wager you can make, that's how I roll.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2.14]
#1. Andy Roddick -365
This is a big price, but I feel like it's one of the more solid wagers on the board today. Roddick owns a 4-0 mark against Stepanek & beat him in this same San Jose tournament last year: 6-4, 7-5. Roddick has continued his rock solid play to start 2009 & despite the fact that Stepanek rolled to a pair of 6-0 sets, he did drop one to Todd Widom yesterday. Roddick won't be as forgiving and should once again prove too powerful here.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2.14]
#2: Niagara/Fairfield UNDER 134
They played recently to a total of 125. Unders have hit in 9 of 13 posted games on the road for Niagara. Overall, Niagara has hit the under in 7 of 8, while Fairfield has hit the under in 6 of 7. Both teams are 7-3 in favor of the under in their last 10. Both teams are holding their foes under 40% shooting in their last 5. Niagara at a staggering 33% and Fairfield at 38%. With neither team shooting that great (41% for both), this one looks like it should settle in the 120s.

#3: Mardy Fish +135
Both Fish & Blake are playing marvelous tennis in San Jose this week, but what Fish did to Del Potro makes him a must play for me today at plus odds no less. Fish's serve has been in a major groove with a ton of aces this week, including 19 yesterday. Blake had a big serve working in the 1st two rounds, but not so much against Querrey - not that he needed it. This comes down to one thing for me - the serve. If Fish can keep his 1st serve winning percentage in the upper 70s or higher and he remains steady on those second serves, I like his chances at plus odds.