Reeces' Picks for Thursday

gottimhimmel · 10-23-13, 08:30 PM

Just wanted to update you on Isners' record physically playing outside of the USA since the 34th week of 2012, excluding non ATP events. (yeah across all surfaces, be that as it may, but still it's the same sport)

Source: http://www.matchstat.com/Player/John%20Isner

He has gone out in the First or Second Round (not on US SOIL (included is is loss in Canada to Pospisil) : 10 Times out of 14) (71%)

Keep in mind that he's often not playing the round of 32 with a bye, so his 2nd match is really the Quarterfinals (third round) AND I DID NOT include that.

Chardy's record with winning matches where his ML is over 2+ is pretty low, I WILL say that, but that's why sportsbetting is gambling and not money collecting.

lucasdawg · 10-23-13, 09:03 PM

mmm also thinking chardy over isner.

matt1216 · 10-23-13, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by gottimhimmel

Listen, Isner was able to take out an admittedly tired Gulbis who had just traveled from Stockholm after an upsetting loss to Ferrer, and not only that but take a look at the matchstats

Tennis

http://www.matchstat.com/Compare/7043/5837/9867

Isner had 0/10 break points converted.

Isner only won 37% of return points.

Yes 66% first serve is OK, but not enough in my opinion.

Chardy's matchstats v Mayer aren't spectacular but they are well-rounded, and Isner really is known to be an "America American Player", by that I mean his track Record in Europe isn't great.

with a resurgent year and a serve on fire, (QUICK SIDENOTE: CAREER IVO KARLOVIC HAS THE HIGHEST % SERVICE GAMES HELD EVER at 91%!) the Dr. should come through!

SUMMARY:

JEREMY CHARDY OVER JOHN ISNER ml 3.5 ($50/125)

IVO KARLOVIC OVER VASEK POSPISIL ML 1.84 ($50/$42)

COMMENTS WELCOME, BL ALL

i like your Chardy pick, but Pospisil can light it up on the service games as well. Much larger first serve than birdych. This line begs for people to pound karlovic. Pospisil wins

gottimhimmel · 10-23-13, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

i like your Chardy pick, but Pospisil can light it up on the service games as well. Much larger first serve than birdych. This line begs for people to pound karlovic. Pospisil wins

You're definitely making good points, from the money prospective a Chardy win for me $125 is much more valuable than a DR.IVO win. I'd still go up +$75.

good luck matt, thanks for the feedback

matt1216 · 10-23-13, 09:31 PM

Good luck as well. Chardy seems like one of those guys that shows up when everybody is tired

Noleafclover · 10-23-13, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by gottimhimmel

Tennis

http://www.matchstat.com/Compare/7043/5837/9867

Isner had 0/10 break points converted.

Isner only won 37% of return points.

Yes 66% first serve is OK, but not enough in my opinion.

37/70 return/serve points won still makes 107%, or 53.5% of all points, which is a pretty large number. Chardy's comparable against Mayer is 51% of all points.

I look at that 0/10 break points won and expect a regression to the mean, especially after a match the guy won. He's gotta be thinking, "Wow, escaped there. Really need to play harder on break points." Not in a gambler's fallacy way where I expect him to outperform his average simply because he's due to even out the numbers, but I do think mentally after that you put a little more premium on break points. And its noteworthy he got 10 break points against Gulbis.

I'd be on Isner -2 for sure, tempted @ -2.5.

Kind of lean over 25.5 in Karlovic-Pospisil.

reddZor · 10-24-13, 03:41 AM

Matt, this is my multi i have

Chardy ML
Nemo ML
Roger Vass/Kamke Over 22.5
Pospisil ML

@17.96
Thoughts

gottimhimmel · 10-24-13, 07:36 AM

Literally just finished.

Chardy is a win! 7-6(6), 6-3!

Bet10Heinekens · 10-24-13, 07:36 AM

Nice call on Chardy, was going to put Isner my parlay until I saw this thread

gottimhimmel · 10-24-13, 10:29 AM

This thread gave 1 winner (chardy ML at 3.5) and one loser; KARLOVIC (ML at 1.90)