Interesting prop bet

[poet]

I posted this on EP's thread but there are a couple of guys cluttering up the thread, so here it is again:

Over 225½ Minutes at -115 for Nadal/Joker. Their last title meeting 2011 at the Open went 4 hours 10 minutes and the final set was 6-1. I think this is way better line than over 3.5 sets at -260.

[mrlif1]

at BOL - 4 sets for +140, 5 sets for +175...agree that the over 3.5 for -260 is a stupid stupid bet

[Hardcoar]

I clutter every thread, mind you!

[EaglesPhan36]

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No shit

[poet]

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No shit

And the prop bet?

[EaglesPhan36]

Tough to say though. Their Montreal match was 2:30 for three sets, so if you go by that - you'd need 1:15 4th set to get it done in four sets. Obviously if it goes 5, you nail it. If it's four, it's a crapshoot IMO.

[poet]

Tough to say though. Their Montreal match was 2:30 for three sets, so if you go by that - you'd need 1:15 4th set to get it done in four sets. Obviously if it goes 5, you nail it. If it's four, it's a crapshoot IMO.

True. But from what I recall EP, and correct me if I'm wrong, that was a faster surface. I also hear that the humid conditions today (heavier balls) will favor longer rallies.

[EaglesPhan36]

It's not really that humid there right now from what I see, could be a little more humid later in the match according to the weather forecast. I wouldn't bank on longer rallies be the key though. Remember how Rafa played in Montreal - aggressive and shorter points. He moves more to the net now in an effort to cut down on long points/wear & tear on his body. There will still be plenty of long rallies, I'm sure - but I don't think you can count on this match to mirror anything they've played before this year on hard courts.

I think if it's going to go over, what you need more of is both players getting into the other's serves so you see a lot of deuce games on-serve.

And yes, I do believe Montreal was faster than these courts - but not a monster difference according to the TI court ratings I saw.

[Sam_Hawkins]

Well nole played a 20 min game with wawa, so you'd need just couple of those in three sets and you hit

[poet]

Well nole played a 20 min game with wawa, so you'd need just couple of those in three sets and you hit

Thanks for the reminder Sam. Let's hope so.

[Hardcoar]

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No shit

Well nole played a 20 min game with wawa, so you'd need just couple of those in three sets and you hit

[poet]

It's not really that humid there right now from what I see, could be a little more humid later in the match according to the weather forecast. I wouldn't bank on longer rallies be the key though. Remember how Rafa played in Montreal - aggressive and shorter points. He moves more to the net now in an effort to cut down on long points/wear & tear on his body. There will still be plenty of long rallies, I'm sure - but I don't think you can count on this match to mirror anything they've played before this year on hard courts.

I think if it's going to go over, what you need more of is both players getting into the other's serves so you see a lot of deuce games on-serve.

And yes, I do believe Montreal was faster than these courts - but not a monster difference according to the TI court ratings I saw.

Yeah, I'm banking on close games and also guys really taking their time between points (without getting called for time violations.)