Azarenka vs Williams - Let's consider upset

[trayman]

Hello there!

Who is actually on Azarenka tomorrow? At first i was thinking about putting something at ML. Then over 2.5 sets. But right now i'm on +4.5 handicap at 2.00.

I really like Azarenka chances to win a set at least. Maybe she isn't in the best shape of her career, but we all know that she can really step up in these really, really important matches. Especially when she is considered as a serious underdog. I know that women tennis could go 6-0 into 0-6 and again 6-0. That's my only worry right now. Would love read your opinions!

Cheers.

[matt1216]

Not happening Serena has been a beast. Azarenka cant hold serve. 6-1 6-3 serena

[frugalgambler]

Azarenka has been winning like Djoker has been winning, just duking it out against inferior or inexperienced players. Somebody like Li Na or even Stevenson would have won those matches. Serena has been dominant like Nadal. I do not see an upset happening, although Serena might get tight knowing that Azarenka has beaten her recently.

[Tmuston Beltics]

Azarenka has been broken in like every match. Are you saying she can hold her serve at least 8 times? I don't think so. If Williams won't melt, She should win by 6+ games. BOL to you though!

[poet]

Aza beat Serena the last time out because she had a stomach strain and had played a really tough match against Li Na. This time it will be different. I would bet Serena ML or take her to win in two sets.

[EaglesPhan36]

Azarenka would have to seriously up her level of play to compete closely here. Her scorelines as others suggest have not really indicated how poor her play has been overall.

[theballsflop]

Azarenka has traditionally been able to raise her game against Williams as she's the only female player out there that she has to put on her A++ game for. Injuries or whatnot, it's evident that only Azarenka has been able to crack Williams code. I like 4.50, and it should rise even higher with all the pounding on the hometown girl. Once it hits 5.00, I'm placing a couple units on an upset.

[EaglesPhan36]

Books will appreciate your donation.

You have to look at the current form and not just past results. Na Li usually played Serena tough and had been playing decent tennis this tournament and she was completely overwhelmed.

Azarenka was playing well last year at this time when she could have won the title. She was playing well in Dubai this year when she beat Serena. Cincinnati obviously this year had some different circumstances for Serena. But if you have watched any of Azarenka this tournament, her form is C+ level at best, She's getting crushed on her second serve and her 1st serve has been lucky to see her win 60% of the points which is a poor, poor number when you face someone like Serena. She can't afford to be broken 5-6 times in a match like this.

Not saying an upset cannot happen, but it will need a perfect storm scenario IMO. Shit match from Serena and Azarenka suddenly finding her best.

[frugalgambler]

Nice summary EP36. The line is actually dropping for Azarenka, from +360 to +330. Lots of upset hunters out there I guess. Not a place to do that. I like Serena 2-0 at -135, but I already have Serena futures bet, so I do not want to risk "double-jeopardy", should she miraculously lose a set or even a match.

[EaglesPhan36]

Honestly I think the price should be pretty much around what it closed for the Li Na match which I think was around +500. Even then, it's just people looking to hit a home run with an 0-2 count against the best fastball in the game. Wawrinka today at I think something in the same stratosphere price-wise was a much better investment based on his earlier play + Djokovic's slightly lesser level so far.

[poet]

EP, below is my wager. I was thinking of hedging and taking Aza just in case, but like you feel she is not playing very well and is lucky she didn't run into someone like Halep. Anyway, if you had my ticket would you hedge at this point and bet a little on Aza at +330, or let it ride?

194557786-1	9/7/13 4:42pm	$614.51	$549.48	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	9/8/13 4:00pm WTA Tennis 301 Serena Williams -390* vs Victoria Azarenka
				Win	9/7/13 2:50pm Props Tennis 183 R.Nadal Wins 3-0 -197* vs Not R.Nadal In 3 Sets

[theballsflop]

Books will appreciate your donation.

You have to look at the current form and not just past results. Na Li usually played Serena tough and had been playing decent tennis this tournament and she was completely overwhelmed.

Azarenka was playing well last year at this time when she could have won the title. She was playing well in Dubai this year when she beat Serena. Cincinnati obviously this year had some different circumstances for Serena. But if you have watched any of Azarenka this tournament, her form is C+ level at best, She's getting crushed on her second serve and her 1st serve has been lucky to see her win 60% of the points which is a poor, poor number when you face someone like Serena. She can't afford to be broken 5-6 times in a match like this.

Not saying an upset cannot happen, but it will need a perfect storm scenario IMO. Shit match from Serena and Azarenka suddenly finding her best.

Thanks for the analysis, much appreciated. Still going with what I believe is good value, and adding Azarenka +1.5 sets @2.31.

It's the final of a Slam, in the WTA it's pretty much who can hold their nerves. Form going in is very over-rated. Will be a good one to watch.

[Vinnie Paz]

Serenas on another planet this tourney
Like the under 20.5 games
Thinking SW in straights with 1 blowout set

Jj check in for the daily anti-Serena writeup. Love reading your angle pal

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm always a fan of hedging if you have the opportunity. When you're looking at making a good amount like this, it just makes sense to do what you can.

If you have live betting, that's the optimal way to go.

[poet]

Thanks for the advice, EP. I know there are guys out there who oppose hedging. I myself have mixed feelings. There are times it has saved me lots of cash and at other times cost me because I was overcautious. I do think that one should have some strategy in mind when it comes to hedging and stick to it. Inconsistency in this regard, has also cost me. I think if Serena starts fast and takes that first set then Aza goes to +700 to win the match, and hedging will be cheap.

[Dillonious Monk]

Yeah, with the Way Azarenka has struggled on her serve, especially in the 1st set where she has been starting slow, I don't like Aza at all here. 1st set could easily be 6-2 or 6-3 Serena, at which point a +4.5 or +5.5 isn't looking good at all.

Serena 1st set -290, 1st set games under 9 1/2 -145, and Serena wins 2-0 -160 are all interesting options.

The thing is, if Serena dominates in the 1st set like I think she will, then her live 2nd set line will get better, at which point you could hedge a Serena 2-0 -160 bet...which, as EP alluded to, is the way to go if you can do it. If your not betting too much and wouldn't get much profit that way then I can understand wanting to ride it out...but by all means it's the smartest route.

Wawrinka's 2nd set line was set at +178 during 1st set, then Djoker got a break back and it went to +215, then Stan broke right back again and it got taken off the board. Anyone who had alot or a pretty decent amount of money on over 3.5 could have started an open parlay and filled 1 leg with set 2 +215 when it was there and waited for Stan's best 3rd set line as well for the 2nd leg and you'd have an awesome hedge, probably at around +900 or so. If Stan could have won that tiebreak, such a thing could have saved you your money.

[Hardcoar]

While I do agree Azarenka is unlikely to win, it is obvious you're underestimating her, Phanboy.

[jjgold]

Azzy only plyer than can beat Serena but what scares me is she is not playing great
Coach said Serena was burnt out in Cincy and do you know I think she was serving for the match

NO PLAY

[terpkeg]

EP, below is my wager. I was thinking of hedging and taking Aza just in case, but like you feel she is not playing very well and is lucky she didn't run into someone like Halep. Anyway, if you had my ticket would you hedge at this point and bet a little on Aza at +330, or let it ride?

194557786-1	9/7/13 4:42pm	$614.51	$549.48	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	9/8/13 4:00pm WTA Tennis 301 Serena Williams -390* vs Victoria Azarenka
				Win	9/7/13 2:50pm Props Tennis 183 R.Nadal Wins 3-0 -197* vs Not R.Nadal In 3 Sets

No reason to make this bet int he first place if you want to hedge it now. Unless this was an usually large play for you and you have come back to earth or you were trying to circumvent limits.

Let it ride.

[Tmuston Beltics]

EP, below is my wager. I was thinking of hedging and taking Aza just in case, but like you feel she is not playing very well and is lucky she didn't run into someone like Halep. Anyway, if you had my ticket would you hedge at this point and bet a little on Aza at +330, or let it ride?

194557786-1	9/7/13 4:42pm	$614.51	$549.48	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	9/8/13 4:00pm WTA Tennis 301 Serena Williams -390* vs Victoria Azarenka
				Win	9/7/13 2:50pm Props Tennis 183 R.Nadal Wins 3-0 -197* vs Not R.Nadal In 3 Sets

You should never hedge in this situation. Should it be a 25-team-parlay and this was the last game, then yes. Remember that when you hedge you win less. This is the optimal situation for you. You got Serena Williams and she is on fire. Azarenka has not been dominant this tournament, and I just can't see her win this game. The only way she could win IMO, is if Williams retires.

[ilyak17]

EP, below is my wager. I was thinking of hedging and taking Aza just in case, but like you feel she is not playing very well and is lucky she didn't run into someone like Halep. Anyway, if you had my ticket would you hedge at this point and bet a little on Aza at +330, or let it ride?

194557786-1	9/7/13 4:42pm	$614.51	$549.48	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	9/8/13 4:00pm WTA Tennis 301 Serena Williams -390* vs Victoria Azarenka
				Win	9/7/13 2:50pm Props Tennis 183 R.Nadal Wins 3-0 -197* vs Not R.Nadal In 3 Sets

Here's the thing I don't like about hedging a parlay like this; by hedging a 2 team parlay you just essentially took all of the value out of the parlay itself. Your first bet won, and now if you hedge for say $250 @ +330 = $825, you make either $215 (azabrat win) or $300 (serena win). Now that all sounds great however, if you were to have just straight bet Nadal 3-0 for your $614.51, you would have made ~$310 and been done with the bet, or if Nadal would have lost you would be out your original bet anyway as I am assuming you didn't hedge against this.

Money management-wise, it is smart to hedge the bet. However, hedging here just completely defeats the purpose of why you made the bet in the first place. If you like a bet good enough in the first place to consider it in a parlay, just bet the damn thing straight up and lay the chalk. If you're going to do a 2 team parlay, see the damn thing through or don't bet it (exception - if you have live betting available look to hedge if a more valuable line comes up or Serena looks like sh*t).

here, but the reason you make a parlay is to supposedly add value. If you just plan to hedge all the value out of your parlay after (if) the first bet wins, what is the point of making the parlay in the first place?

[Hardcoar]

One thing's for sure... this Ilyak kid clearly is no American idiot.

[poet]

Here's the thing I don't like about hedging a parlay like this; by hedging a 2 team parlay you just essentially took all of the value out of the parlay itself. Your first bet won, and now if you hedge for say $250 @ +330 = $825, you make either $215 (azabrat win) or $300 (serena win). Now that all sounds great however, if you were to have just straight bet Nadal 3-0 for your $614.51, you would have made ~$310 and been done with the bet, or if Nadal would have lost you would be out your original bet anyway as I am assuming you didn't hedge against this.

Money management-wise, it is smart to hedge the bet. However, hedging here just completely defeats the purpose of why you made the bet in the first place. If you like a bet good enough in the first place to consider it in a parlay, just bet the damn thing straight up and lay the chalk. If you're going to do a 2 team parlay, see the damn thing through or don't bet it (exception - if you have live betting available look to hedge if a more valuable line comes up or Serena looks like sh*t).

here, but the reason you make a parlay is to supposedly add value. If you just plan to hedge all the value out of your parlay after (if) the first bet wins, what is the point of making the parlay in the first place?

Yes, I see your point. The most difficult part of the parlay is over and now I have Serena at about 1 to 1 odds so why give the advantage back to the books. Thanks again for the detailed response, Ilyak.

[EaglesPhan36]

While I do agree Azarenka is unlikely to win, it is obvious you're underestimating her, Phanboy.

You're boring. To each his own on hedging. Situations like this are perfect for live betting if you need it which is why I suggested utilizing that over just flat out taking Azarenka pre-match. That way you can monitor the progress and if Azarenka steps up and is able to actually show something that looks threatening to the outcome, you can do what you need to do.

[Hardcoar]

Your reply has absolutely nothing to do with my post, but go right ahead chief.

Books will appreciate your donation.

You have to look at the current form and not just past results. Na Li usually played Serena tough and had been playing decent tennis this tournament and she was completely overwhelmed.

Azarenka was playing well last year at this time when she could have won the title. She was playing well in Dubai this year when she beat Serena. Cincinnati obviously this year had some different circumstances for Serena. But if you have watched any of Azarenka this tournament, her form is C+ level at best, She's getting crushed on her second serve and her 1st serve has been lucky to see her win 60% of the points which is a poor, poor number when you face someone like Serena. She can't afford to be broken 5-6 times in a match like this.

Not saying an upset cannot happen, but it will need a perfect storm scenario IMO. Shit match from Serena and Azarenka suddenly finding her best.

It is anything but a donation @ 5.

Li sucked her own anus until the final two games of that match.

If Serena plays a "shit match" and Azarenka "finds her best", Serena will be wiped off the court in straights. Both those conditation are unlikely to occur, however.

[EaglesPhan36]

the you're boring part is all that I could muster up for you.

[Hardcoar]

The your bullshit part is all I needed to muster up for you.

Enjoy!

[EaglesPhan36]

At least use proper grammar Eurosian dumpster type.


YOU'RE. You ARE bullshit, not YOUR bullshit as in it is my bullshit - because it is indeed my bullshit, but that is not what you meant.

[Hardcoar]

Quite the contrary. I was indeed looking for the pronoun – not the contracted noun and verb. Supplemented of course by the fact that I mustered up the bullshit of yours in my post – not the claim that you are bullshit. Mostentimes you are anything but.

[Tmuston Beltics]

[EaglesPhan36]

That's enough monkey play for me. You boys enjoy your WTA final.

[Hardcoar]

Oh ever so wrong!

[ItsMeMrMattE]

for me:

Serena Williams (-400) x2
total games played 19.5 over (-155)
Azarenka +4.5 (+100)

[Hardcoar]

So you're dead certain she wins, but also dead certain it won't be by that much of a margin?

[ItsMeMrMattE]

So you're dead certain she wins, but also dead certain it won't be by that much of a margin?

ya i thought williams would win it in a close one.