Lleyton Hewitt Vs Mikhail Youzhny ( Pick Lleyton Hewitt @ + 138)

[Sam_Hawkins]

It was a good bet,but then in the end a bet that cashes out is a good bet my friend,Hewitt should have served it out,one game away and sadly that is how it remained,Youzhny was all but out when he handed hewitt a break early in the 4 th to go down 0-3 and hewitt with a little sense would have increased his game a little and that would have been that but never mind,what's gone is gone,may be better luck for us next time !

Well gotta disagree here...good bet does not equal bet that cashes...Good bet is a bet that at the end of the day had higher chance of hitting than the initial odds suggested...here hewitt had AT LEAST 50% chance to win imo.
Just take in consideration betting at odds 1.05 for someone who wins in tough five setter...Yeah, it cashes, but definitely not a good bet...

[Laker_crazy]

Well gotta disagree here...good bet does not equal bet that cashes...Good bet is a bet that at the end of the day had higher chance of hitting than the initial odds suggested...here hewitt had AT LEAST 50% chance to win imo.
Just take in consideration betting at odds 1.05 for someone who wins in tough five setter...Yeah, it cashes, but definitely not a good bet...

At the end of the day,it does not matter whether the bet has a chance of cashing,is a favorite to cash,what matters is what your sportsbook balance looks like after the bet has been settled. I usually do not hedge my plays but here the odds on Youzhny at a point were at 10.00 also,so it would have been a good bet both sides to cut a little profit and cover the loss of 2 units on youzhny but i was confident of hewitt winning this so i did not touch it even at that price.This match in question,had already started on even keel and after hewitt levelled it,the scales tilted in his favor,but anyway no sense in argument, even though nuts are the best you could have yourself dealt, deuces are enough to crash you with another on the flop,turn or river,sure an Ace opening has better odds and chances for you have the best hand but at the end who wins is what determines a winner IMO.

[Sam_Hawkins]

This discussion has been here like million times. I will just cut it short, show you what my point is and than leave you be:
Imagine this matchup played with these odds in 100 alternate universes, all very alike this, but slightly different. In one of those maybe a rain will delay the match, maybe a spectator will shout during an intense rallye, maybe an umpire will not overrule line judge at the end of second set, maybe someone's strings would crack in one of the exchanges...those, very small variations. Imagine you bet one unit on youzhny in each of those exchanges OR you bet one unit on hewitt. What of these two would be a winning strategies? My point is that for sufficient numbers of those "alternate universes" you would be in positive balance if you bet on hewitt.
Now, of course there is no such thing as I explained above, but if you think about it, it is very similar to betting each day different matches.
And at the end "your sportsbook balance" really is what matters, but not after one match, but after thousands of them.

[Laker_crazy]

This discussion has been here like million times. I will just cut it short, show you what my point is and than leave you be:
Imagine this matchup played with these odds in 100 alternate universes, all very alike this, but slightly different. In one of those maybe a rain will delay the match, maybe a spectator will shout during an intense rallye, maybe an umpire will not overrule line judge at the end of second set, maybe someone's strings would crack in one of the exchanges...those, very small variations. Imagine you bet one unit on youzhny in each of those exchanges OR you bet one unit on hewitt. What of these two would be a winning strategies? My point is that for sufficient numbers of those "alternate universes" you would be in positive balance if you bet on hewitt.
Now, of course there is no such thing as I explained above, but if you think about it, it is very similar to betting each day different matches.
And at the end "your sportsbook balance" really is what matters, but not after one match, but after thousands of them.

Betting does not run on imagination mate,it runs on reality,come to think of it,the examples you have specified above are not realistic and nothing in life anyways runs on IF'S...Come to think of it : If Ifs and buts were pots and pans,there would be no tinkers. For all you know,one might cap a match perfectly and the odds would be in your favor and you are more likely to win than anyone on the board but then again it is a gambling,the player you have bet on might not show up at all,might show up for a set and fade away,might keep it close and shit in the end,it is unpredictable to say the least,We as punters are in this to make profit and the sportsbook balance in what matters in the long run that is why it does not affect a person who is up much for he would be making a play almost everyday than somebody who comes on the forum finds the train hot and rides along with it..It is a grind and we all are grinding capping to the best of our ability but at the end what happens there is all luck. Me and you can discuss and go on that hewitt was a better chance of winning and so on but who is in the quarter finals? which bet cashed? who won in five > it is youzhny and my money was not on this. So the odds might favor x y z but the result should favor who you bet on in the end.

[Optional]

Betting does not run on imagination mate,it runs on reality,come to think of it,the examples you have specified above are not realistic and nothing in life anyways runs on IF'S...Come to think of it : If Ifs and buts were pots and pans,there would be no tinkers. For all you know,one might cap a match perfectly and the odds would be in your favor and you are more likely to win than anyone on the board but then again it is a gambling,the player you have bet on might not show up at all,might show up for a set and fade away,might keep it close and shit in the end,it is unpredictable to say the least,We as punters are in this to make profit and the sportsbook balance in what matters in the long run that is why it does not affect a person who is up much for he would be making a play almost everyday than somebody who comes on the forum finds the train hot and rides along with it..It is a grind and we all are grinding capping to the best of our ability but at the end what happens there is all luck. Me and you can discuss and go on that hewitt was a better chance of winning and so on but who is in the quarter finals? which bet cashed? who won in five > it is youzhny and my money was not on this. So the odds might favor x y z but the result should favor who you bet on in the end.

I don't agree. You can bet on under valued faves all the time and never have a chance to win in the long run, whilst feeling like you pick winners like a champ.

Individual matches mean nothing. If you cap matches looking for an advantage against the odds you dont care one iota who wins each match and are much more likely to win long term.

[Hardcoar]

This discussion has been here like million times. I will just cut it short, show you what my point is and than leave you be:
Imagine this matchup played with these odds in 100 alternate universes, all very alike this, but slightly different. In one of those maybe a rain will delay the match, maybe a spectator will shout during an intense rallye, maybe an umpire will not overrule line judge at the end of second set, maybe someone's strings would crack in one of the exchanges...those, very small variations. Imagine you bet one unit on youzhny in each of those exchanges OR you bet one unit on hewitt. What of these two would be a winning strategies? My point is that for sufficient numbers of those "alternate universes" you would be in positive balance if you bet on hewitt.
Now, of course there is no such thing as I explained above, but if you think about it, it is very similar to betting each day different matches.
And at the end "your sportsbook balance" really is what matters, but not after one match, but after thousands of them.

Nice try!

[Laker_crazy]

I don't agree. You can bet on under valued faves all the time and never have a chance to win in the long run, whilst feeling like you pick winners like a champ.

Individual matches mean nothing. If you cap matches looking for an advantage against the odds you dont care one iota who wins each match and are much more likely to win long term.

If you bet favorites @ odds that are less than .50 ( i don't bet them personally though) you would lose money in the long run sure shot anyway,so whoever feels like a champ betting a fav in the long run should do himself a favor and throw away the money to charity only,The books thrive on such punters who bet this way,nothing is a sure shot winner anyway and the point that you highlighted whilst quoting me remains the same..A Clear case was yesterday,i bet Hewitt at + 138 and after he was leading 4-2 in the 4 th set,the odds on youzhny were 10.00,so even a 10 pound bet on youzhny would have covered me my loss of those 2 units,however i chose to ride my bet and did not hedge so eventually in the end,hewitt lost in 5,so my bankroll was depleted by 2 units,and my supposed hedge in youzhny remained in my mind only,so eventually most of the winnings for people remain on paper my friend, for winning gamblers it is a grind,just like poker,days when u feel u r the king and on days bad beats make u want to scratch your hair out,its who remains consistent,that survives in the end. Opinions may differ.

[Hardcoar]

It doesn't matter how big a favorite you bet on, so long as said pick is more likely to win than the odds suggest.

[Optional]

Betting is more 'fun' if you want to tear your hair out, or cheer, about a match at least.

[Sam_Hawkins]

Yeah. Did not want to unfold this discussion, cos I'm getting tired of it

Let's try yet another example (Notice, Laker_crazy, that I am doing it cos I like your capping and I want to help you, not cos I want to show you "who's the boss" or whatever other dick-comparision reasons...)

Consider you have a flawlessly symmetrical coin. You flip it and bet on heads each try. The result? In a long run (which means sufficiently high amount of tries - which, btw, is an actual term used in statistical mathematics) your profit will be 0. Yes, you can profit after first ten runs, you can even profit after one million, but your overall profit converges to zero. I hope we can aggree on this.
(That's just a simple consequence of law of high numbers - very interesting phenomenon, the only reason why it should work is a symmetry - there is no preferable outcome - but that would be for a longer chat)

Now consider the coin is flawed. One of the sides will be one percent more likely to show up when you flip it. Now, if you bet on the side with higher probability of showing, you will be winning in the long run. Agree?

Now if you transfer that to a language of tennis capping - if you wish to be profiting in a long run, you need to be betting as HC mentioned:

It doesn't matter how big a favorite you bet on, so long as said pick is more likely to win than the odds suggest.

Which, btw, has nothing to do with his actual current profit - if you wish to argument that way. His strategy is right, the question is if he is using it right - meaning if he actually is picking such picks. And, as well, if he has been betting enough times for the steady profit to show up.

In capping, it is even tougher, cos in a balanced match, you don't get 2/2 odds, the bookie has a margin for error, usually something like 1.83/1.83 or 1.9/1.9...so you need to actually even overcome this margin.

Also, that is the reason why they say that you can win on a roulette, but you can't be consistently winning. Cos there's a fckin zero and you just can't overcome that slight edge the casino has.

Side-Note: I happen to study theoretical physics, so I know some maths.

[Laker_crazy]

Thank you for offering your help here but i was not born yesterday and i have been capping for 6 odd years now,4 on sbr,do yourself a favor,search laker_crazy's official nba thread,you shall know what you are talking about,i hate to do this and you might be good at maths or a professor but i have consistently had a winning nba season for 5 years running,you talk about the law of averages catching up,i shall advice when it does,i do not need no help from you mate,please feel free to post your plays,make money and if possible help others do so,wasting time discussing things which would not change the eventual outcome suggests there is a lot of spare time at hand,i d prefer to utilize it,end of discussion,and honestly i don't give a flying fa r t about people thinking who the boss is and blah blah blah,if that was the case i would join politics and not post plays on sbr,lol..Good luck !

[Sam_Hawkins]

Thank you for offering your help here but i was not born yesterday and i have been capping for 6 odd years now,4 on sbr,do yourself a favor,search laker_crazy's official nba thread,you shall know what you are talking about,i hate to do this and you might be good at maths or a professor but i have consistently had a winning nba season for 5 years running,you talk about the law of averages catching up,i shall advice when it does,i do not need no help from you mate,please feel free to post your plays,make money and if possible help others do so,wasting time discussing things which would not change the eventual outcome suggests there is a lot of spare time at hand,i d prefer to utilize it,end of discussion,and honestly i don't give a flying fa r t about people thinking who the boss is and blah blah blah,if that was the case i would join politics and not post plays on sbr,lol..Good luck !

hah aight...
just to clear things up...I don't doubt you're a good capper...so far you're doing great with your tennis plays, I also know your NBA thread...the reason I am discussing with you is not that I think you're a bad capper, but because you are thinking wrong about what you do right - in other words, you are obviously obeying the rules I outlined above - but probably not being conscious about it - and I wanted you to broaden your pespective for the sake of your own good. It is most probable that you will do good even if you don't give a damn about what I wrote. It will definitely not harm you to think deeper to the jist and may pay off in the future.

GL to you too

[Laker_crazy]

hah aight...
just to clear things up...I don't doubt you're a good capper...so far you're doing great with your tennis plays, I also know your NBA thread...the reason I am discussing with you is not that I think you're a bad capper, but because you are thinking wrong about what you do right - in other words, you are obviously obeying the rules I outlined above - but probably not being conscious about it - and I wanted you to broaden your pespective for the sake of your own good. It is most probable that you will do good even if you don't give a damn about what I wrote. It will definitely not harm you to think deeper to the jist and may pay off in the future.

GL to you too

I don't doubt your intentions mate,all in good spirit,cheers !