tevari's USO2013 WTA ONLY picks

[tevari]

Because my ROI is almost two times higher betting women than it is men.

Looking to make between a grand or two, nice & easy.

Day 1:

1.) Parlay: Mladenovic [-175] & Mattek-Sands [-465] .... risking 220 to win 200
2.) Zheng [-118] .... risking 118 to make 100
3.) Voegele -2.5 games [-105] .... risking 210 to win 200

[Vinnie Paz]

Your other thread says you have 440/400 on that parlay. Which is which?

[tevari]

It's 220.

[MUHerd37]

Good luck Tevari

[Hardcoar]

I'm not too sure with Voegele. The odds do seem nice but look at their H2H recent stats.

[tevari]

Adding:

Dushevina/Lisicki over 19.5 [-110]

[poet]

Tevari, you were certainly right about Halep and would consider tailing you on your picks here but some of these women have never played each other and/or are on losing streaks. Doesn't that make things a bit tricky?

[Hardcoar]

It does.

[tevari]

Tevari, you were certainly right about Halep and would consider tailing you on your picks here but some of these women have never played each other and/or are on losing streaks. Doesn't that make things a bit tricky?

Well of course, that's called speculative gambling. I've done my analysis, know my personnel, and make my picks based on what I know. Tail me or not, but I wouldn't recommend blindly tailing on any play, written by me or not.

[jjgold]

too many matches early rounds..I like watching for a while and then start coming in when the days cards are smaller

Good Luck men

[tevari]

2-1 on the day. Lisicki/Dushevina over & Zheng were winners, but Voegele was utterly putrid. Looking for the parlay to cash for a good 3-1 day 1 ..Mladenovic won the first set but is down 3-1 in the second, BMS later tonight.

[tevari]

3-1 on day one. +$190.00

Day 2:

1.) Parlay: Larcher de Brito & Ivanovic ... risking 313 to win 200
2.) Tomljanovic -115 ...risking 115 to win 100
3.) Dolonc +175 ...risking 100 to win 175

[RichardGeorge]

Nice start

[poet]

3-1 on day one. +$190.00

Day 2:

1.) Parlay: Larcher de Brito & Ivanovic ... risking 313 to win 200
2.) Tomljanovic -115 ...risking 115 to win 100
3.) Dolonc +175 ...risking 100 to win 175

Ahhh, fond memory of de Brito. One a grand off of a 50 dollar bet (she was +2000) when she played Sugarpova at Wimbledon, which got me hooked on betting tennis. She seems to do better though when nothing is expected of her. Still, I'll give her another try...for old times sakes.

[tevari]

Adding for 50 bucks:

Jovanovski +450

[tevari]

Jovanovski +450 is one set to the good. Petko is trash. Don't care about a potential jinx, finish it up!

[mytsunami]

Had the same thought as you on the Jovanovski game but I wasnt going to pull the trigger.... until I saw your pick.
Lets cash

[tevari]

Jovanovski cashes for 225, the Ivanovic/Larcher de Brito cashes. Waiting on Tomljanovic & Dolonc.

Tourney YTD: 5-1 +$615.00

[SCS]

Thx for the Jovanovski pick.

[frugalgambler]

Nice hit on Jovanovski !

[frugalgambler]

What do you think about Svitolina at +265 ?

[tevari]

Don't like it - I hate the veteran player versus a relative newcomer matchup at a grand slam.

[Bet10Heinekens]

great call on Jova

[Hardcoar]

Yup. Grat's on the hit!

[matt05man]

Well done mate

[EaglesPhan36]

Way to work it tv

[tevari]

Tomljanovic through in 3. Only pending play is Dolonc +175

Tourney to date: 6-1 +$699.81

[zola]

Good Job Tevari -

any more underdog picks for this afternoon?

[tevari]

Thanks, and no, just Dolonc over Wozniak.

Hitting this early before I feel there will be intense line movement against my selection.

Wednesday:

Mattek-Sands +175...risking 100

[tevari]

Dolonc 0/4 on break chances, twice in different games at 15-40. Cmon, Wozniak has only played 1 match in the last 5 months. I guess in the battle of bads, anything can happen. Ugh, frustration.

[tevari]

Indeed. She was actually up 3-0 in the 2nd set tiebreak (and I know Wozniak is a total flake, so if it went 3 she would likely fold), but Dolonc lost 7 of the next 9 points to lose the match. On to the next day. Pending Mattek-Sands @ +175 and adding...

Parlay: Kerber & Cirstea ...risking 258 to win 200

Tourney to date: 6-2 +$599.81

[poet]

Tevari, out of Kerber and Cirstea who are you more confident about? I ask because I want to parlay one of them with Venus. Which brings me to my next point, what do you think of Venus tomorrow? My other comment is regarding Kvitova and Halep, let me know when you are ready to fade them. I really don't think Halep has much left in her gas tank. She got lucky tonight.

[tevari]

I feel more confident in Kerber, even though her opponent is more skilled than Cirstea's, but I feel experience plays a huge factor in both matches. Nara, the Japanese qualifier is a decent player from the one match I saw her play, but Cirstea is extremely confident right now, making the finals last week or whenever it was, losing to Serena. Kerber draws Bouchard, who is talented but will wilt on the big stage - she plays big points terribly...you can almost see the nerves in her racquet hand. Kerber's been there, done that, and even though her form is nothing to write home about as of late, she should have enough mental fortitude to pull through, with some guaranteed bumps along the way. I'd tread lightly with Venus even though she steamrolled Flipkens the other day - Zheng can play....most balls will be headed right back at Venus and she will have to keep her forehand errors down or I can see Zheng upsetting her. Kvitova will promptly be faded in the round of 32. Halep...not so sure.

[gaebiskon]

tevari, which sportsbook do you use?
risking 258 to win 200, that's an awesome odd

[poet]

I feel more confident in Kerber, even though her opponent is more skilled than Cirstea's, but I feel experience plays a huge factor in both matches. Nara, the Japanese qualifier is a decent player from the one match I saw her play, but Cirstea is extremely confident right now, making the finals last week or whenever it was, losing to Serena. Kerber draws Bouchard, who is talented but will wilt on the big stage - she plays big points terribly...you can almost see the nerves in her racquet hand. Kerber's been there, done that, and even though her form is nothing to write home about as of late, she should have enough mental fortitude to pull through, with some guaranteed bumps along the way. I'd tread lightly with Venus even though she steamrolled Flipkens the other day - Zheng can play....most balls will be headed right back at Venus and she will have to keep her forehand errors down or I can see Zheng upsetting her. Kvitova will promptly be faded in the round of 32. Halep...not so sure.

Tevari, thanks for the detailed response. I love the way you break things down. You have a real love/feel for what you do. Reminds me of the way my college professor used to talk about/describe renaissance paintings. My reason for backing Venus is a strange one, and if you scoff at it, I don't blame you. The Williams sisters rarely (if ever) lose to Asian players (Li Na, notwithstanding). I think it is a black/Asian thing, something about the two being the most distinctive non-white races, and not wanting to be inferior to the other. There is no love lost between the two "races" (this fact was even dramatized in Spike Lee's, Do the Right Thing). Anyway, I just don't see Venus going down to Zheng, at least not without a good fight. Of course, that doesn't mean she won't lose. I know, it's a crazy angle.