US Open draw

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  • reddevil84
    SBR High Roller
    • 08-05-10
    • 174

    #1
    US Open draw
    Was going to put my money on Del Potro but what a tough draw for him ... he could have to beat Hass, Djoko, Murray and Nadal to win it all

    I am actually surprised he is "only" +1100 (pinny) to win!

    If he would be +150 (average) against the big three, you would have already +1500 return! And I would expect him closer to +200 against Djoko (he was +600 at Wimbledon semi).

    Dream draw for Nadal, even if Isner in eighteen is not a gift ... but I would not touch him at +200, he has never been a lock at US Open.

    Any thought?
  • Tmuston Beltics
    SBR MVP
    • 01-14-13
    • 1253

    #2
    If you want better odds for Del Potro to win, I suggest you bet him on every match he plays. Start with the amount you was going to bet on his tournament win, then bet the amount you won on the next game etc. Guarantee you get better odds.
    Comment
    • Hardcoar
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-17-13
      • 15606

      #3
      My thoughts:

      Nadal @ 7; 1/2 EW is now officially a good bet.
      Comment
      • reddevil84
        SBR High Roller
        • 08-05-10
        • 174

        #4
        Originally posted by Tmuston Beltics
        If you want better odds for Del Potro to win, I suggest you bet him on every match he plays. Start with the amount you was going to bet on his tournament win, then bet the amount you won on the next game etc. Guarantee you get better odds.
        yeah that was exactly my thought, unless there are some early upsets like at Wimbly but this is so improbable with Djoko/Murray, both have been the most regular in GC last 3 years.
        Comment
        • Hardcoar
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-17-13
          • 15606

          #5
          Also, a word of advice:

          Consider the actual probability of Po'Mo beating Haas, Djokovic, Murray and Nadal back to back. Just try appreciating the likelihood of each separate win and multiply the four corresponding odds with eachother.
          Comment
          • reddevil84
            SBR High Roller
            • 08-05-10
            • 174

            #6
            Originally posted by Hardcoar
            Also, a word of advice:

            Consider the actual probability of Po'Mo beating Haas, Djokovic, Murray and Nadal back to back. Just try appreciating the likelihood of each separate win and multiply the four corresponding odds with eachother.
            That why I am surprised to see him +1100 at Pinny... he should be between +1500 and +2000 with this draw no? especially we are not sure he will be 100% fit
            Comment
            • Hardcoar
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-17-13
              • 15606

              #7
              He has looked a bit like a frozen turd lately. If he is fully fit (which is unlikely in my opinion) he has a 1/20 shot at best with the given draw.
              Comment
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