Someone give me a good reason to NOT hit this Serena future @ -130

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  • tevari
    SBR MVP
    • 02-02-07
    • 4959

    #1
    Someone give me a good reason to NOT hit this Serena future @ -130
    I just don't see anyone else contending. The next two down the list are Azarenka & Sharapova. Aza-brat has been unimpressive ...totally disinterested and looked dreadful last week in the final of Carlsbad. Sharapova has been MIA for some time now, and I think she won't be at her best in a couple weeks...Serena also dominates the H2H against both women.Click image for larger version

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ID:	29141483 Home turf, it's her title. Kvitova may get hot and go on one of her runs, but again, way too loose in the unforced error category, along with her mental issues & double faults. Going to see if anyone can talk me off this in the morning and if not, throwing 650 to win 500 on it.
  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #2
    She's always an easy take on futures when she is close to even, because you have a green out all the way through at plus odds on her opponent. As to why she won't cash.... because she's Serena and it's WTA. In other words, see Australia and Wimbledon this year.
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    • tevari
      SBR MVP
      • 02-02-07
      • 4959

      #3
      What gives me more confidence is that she's basically played all the tourneys leading up to Queens whereas Aza/Masha have not.
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      • tevari
        SBR MVP
        • 02-02-07
        • 4959

        #4
        Li is putrid, the whole Lisicki/Bartoli fiasco was a freak occurrence....idk. Just don't see it going anywhere else...
        Comment
        • poet
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 08-11-13
          • 796

          #5
          If she makes it to the semis you are good as gold as you can cash out. The problem with betting futures (unless it's at the quarter or semi stage) for me is injuries, rain, back to back matches, etc... For example, I bet on OKC to win the west after game one of the NBA playoffs at 1 to 1 odds (which I thought was very good) and the next day westbrook tore his ACL. 950 dollars down the drain.
          Comment
          • poet
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 08-11-13
            • 796

            #6
            Freak occurrence? I won 2 grand on Lisicki and would have wone more if others had not talked me out of it, as I was sure she could beat Serena on grass. Serena is usually a great bet but there are days she can be beat, against the right opponent.
            Comment
            • EaglesPhan36
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-06-06
              • 71662

              #7
              Originally posted by tevari
              Li is putrid, the whole Lisicki/Bartoli fiasco was a freak occurrence....idk. Just don't see it going anywhere else...
              WTA = freak occurrence seems to be the norm. Someone like Stosur is just freaky enough to make another run this year. She seems to wake up every year for this tournament.

              If you use the future to make money and not just ride it out to try and show you've got big balls, taking Serena or Djokovic is usually about as good as you can get if you find the right hedge.
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              • tevari
                SBR MVP
                • 02-02-07
                • 4959

                #8
                Stosur will be an auto fade for me if she makes it to the QFs this year. She has no zing on her forehand like she used to. I feel her career is in major decline, despite winning Carlsbad.
                Comment
                • frugalgambler
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-30-13
                  • 3418

                  #9
                  I am tempted to take Serena as well. If she wins Cincy, the price will creep up to -150-170 or so. Still, I did not like that she had some problems with AgRad in the semis a couple of days ago. It feels like she is not dominating as much as she did before the French Open.
                  Comment
                  • theballsflop
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-22-13
                    • 1483

                    #10
                    Wimbledon f-ed all the Serena backers. Who's to argue it won't happen again at the US Open?
                    Comment
                    • Hardcoar
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-17-13
                      • 15606

                      #11
                      WTA. Azarenka, Sharapova, Stosur. Australian Open, Wimbledon.
                      Comment
                      • tevari
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-02-07
                        • 4959

                        #12
                        Not good enough. Trigger pulled.
                        Comment
                        • Hardcoar
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 02-17-13
                          • 15606

                          #13
                          I really don't care for that bet, but I sure as hell hope you win. Oh wait... no I don't!

                          I'm on the underpriced woman.
                          Comment
                          • ohumad
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-19-12
                            • 2298

                            #14
                            Azarenka is the only real threat imo. Li is only good for keeping it somewhat close lol. I think if she was a bit more consistent and mentally stronger she would be the Beast slayer though. Serena's serve won't be as potent as it was in Wimbledon ofc to bail her out as much but I see you've locked it in already. BOL
                            Comment
                            • tevari
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-02-07
                              • 4959

                              #15
                              Extremely uneventful USO for me this year. Didn't see matchups like that I liked anywhere. At least I can watch this today.
                              Comment
                              • poet
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 08-11-13
                                • 796

                                #16
                                Originally posted by tevari
                                Extremely uneventful USO for me this year. Didn't see matchups like that I liked anywhere. At least I can watch this today.
                                It's about time you showed up. Were you in hiding? Do you have Serena today? Do you think Aza has a mental edge over Serena because of the last couple of wins?
                                Comment
                                • tevari
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-02-07
                                  • 4959

                                  #17
                                  1.) Not in hiding, why would I be?
                                  2.) Yes, I have Serena today, did you read the thread?
                                  3.) No, I don't think anyone can touch Serena on this stage.
                                  Comment
                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-06-06
                                    • 71662

                                    #18
                                    Nice work tv.
                                    Comment
                                    • Hardcoar
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 02-17-13
                                      • 15606

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                      WTA. Azarenka, Sharapova, Stosur. Australian Open, Wimbledon.
                                      Enjoy your money.
                                      Comment
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