Del Potro +320 has some value!!!

**jhause13** · 01-27-09, 12:08 AM

I totally agree with this pick. Federer doesn't seem to be the same as the Federer we are used to seeing. Potro should definitely give him a great run for his money. Got Del Potro at +350 in this. Are you going to be up at 5 am watching this one?

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-27-09, 12:56 AM

Originally posted by GatorFan

I feel like Federer has no footwork and only play defense.

You don't watch much tennis, eh?

**pimike** · 01-27-09, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

You don't watch much tennis, eh?

I guess not

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-27-09, 01:03 AM

I think people need to really understand value, price & circumstance. Yes, Del Potro has a good price at +320. Value-wise though you have to look ... this is a Grand Slam. Federer has an incredible streak of making semis & finals at Slams. Del Potro has yet to break through that glass ceiling of making a semi-final. Sure, at some point the kid is gonna get there. But, is it now? Circumstance. Federer knows how to win in majors, late in the tournament. A lot of people will harp on the Berdych match, but Federer found a way to win a match that most would have lost in straight sets. A lot of times that is more of a catalyst to come out sharp in the next match vs. a downturn.

So on paper +320 looks good and if you honestly think Del Potro matches up well, then I say go for it. I just don't think it's quite his time yet and see this is less than a 50-50 proposition for Del Potro winning.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-27-09, 02:15 AM

Del Potro needs to play like Berdych, anything above waist height (admittedly on Del Potro that's fairly high up!) take a risk and pound it into the corners. He has the shots to do this, particularly cross court - his long crosscourt forehand is just about the hardest shot in tennis, although it's not used too often. Problem is this isn't his natural game.

Of course, if Federer's errors go all over the place like in a lot of the Berdych match, Del Potro's retriever style and consistency are perfectly suited.

He needs to adapt in-game, depending on how Federer's playing at that point in time. A perfect example of this is how Simon played Federer at the Masters Cup, and the Canada Masters. Defend and frustrate like Volandri/Canas, then hit flat like Safin in the AO 04/05.

I'm not convinced he's got the court craft to realise when to defend, and when to play first strike tennis. Berdych got it absolutely dead right for two sets, until he blew up. Del Potro is unlikely to do that, he's a lot mentally stronger, but is he tactically smart enough? I don't think so.

**meganie** · 01-27-09, 05:04 AM

Del Potro is no Berdych. When Berdych is "on" he goes for every shot and hits it right on the line, which makes him more dangerous for top player who have their day off. Del Potro hits with more top spin and is more the shot crafting guy, he doesn't go for every shot, which could come to favor for Federer, who could push him around the court a lot more.