Aussie Open Day 8 In-Game-Thread

[HeeeHAWWWW]

I don't know how you would have been right if you took Murray/Federer from the beginning....

I had Murray for a total of something like 560GBP ($780) at +500 a few months ago, so subtract 5 units from the picks above if you want. Quite happy with that pick though, as the tournament started at +300 - about correct imo, representing 24%.

Thus, a 24% shot at +500, ie +44% EV. That's insanely good value - take those in the longterm and you'll be rich as hell.

[wannabet]

meganie, you have to look at it in two ways. yes, it is easier to handicap the lesser matches, but that does not prove you are doing well at the highest level. It's like the superbowl, people care more about that than a meaningless week 1 matchup in football. If you can't do well on the most important games in the specific sport, then you can't do well when it matters most. yes, you're right it doesn't really matter, you make your money the simplest way possible. If you want braggin rights, however, if you want to say you are the best. you have to pick the big ones.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Heehaw, you were saying Murray's form has been so unbelieveable there is no chance he will lose in the Aussie Open.....

Rubbish. I said he was (correctly) the joint favourite, when he was at +300. That means I was saying there was a 75% someone else would win.

If there was even 50% chance of him winning the open, I'd have staked about 20k, not 500.

[wannabet]

I give up, because I know you are more involved in it than I am. I don't intend to prove you wrong. So, I know you know more about something that interests me. I have a question, once you have Murray +550, can you change that bet and sell it somehow, once you see that he is now +250? Otherwise, you lose just like the +250 loses when it's all said and done.

[meganie]

meganie, you have to look at it in two ways. yes, it is easier to handicap the lesser matches, but that does not prove you are doing well at the highest level. It's like the superbowl, people care more about that than a meaningless week 1 matchup in football. If you can't do well on the most important games in the specific sport, then you can't do well when it matters most. yes, you're right it doesn't really matter, you make your money the simplest way possible. If you want braggin rights, however, if you want to say you are the best. you have to pick the big ones.

Let's see it that way: If both players have a 50% to win the match, the probability that odds are -110/-110 are bigger, than in a small first round match, where odds could be +130/-140 simply because less people bet or have a wrong impression. The deeper a player gets into a tournament, the more impression you do have and the more people bet on these matches. So, let's say Nadal/Federer face each other in a final and Federer didn't play as good as he could, but you know he's normally superior than Nadal on hard court and Nadal didn't play that much better, so there's about 50% that both could win and you get odds about -110 for each player. Would you go for it? I wouldn't because there's no value. I wouldn't care a thing, if I capped the Superbowl game wrong, if I was up 50u before. Would you bet 50u on one match with let's say 60% probability of winning at odds about -105 and pass the weeks before? I wouldn't.

[wannabet]

Yeah, I see where you guys are going, just making it statistics, and then you can say it doesn't matter at all who you picked. It's just betting value, like it's just like poker. Then a computer is the best at it. Of course, if you take a 40% instead of 60% and win, then you're right up to 100%, and the 60 is right down to 0. I"ll leave you all be, I will just read what people are saying in these final matches. NOw it's interesting for me. other smaller matches aren't interesting.Also, I don't get all the games on t.v..

[HeeeHAWWWW]

I have a question, once you have Murray +550, can you change that bet and sell it somehow, once you see that he is now +250? Otherwise, you lose just like the +250 loses when it's all said and done.

You could lay the bet at betfair/betdaq/etc, or do a no at pinnacle to "will murray win the US Open?".

However, if you're betting large amounts of matches, there's not really much point. The law of averages means that even if one bet loses, others will win, and the larger the number of bets you make, the more it tends towards the average (or to rephrase, the more bets you make, the less luck is a factor). If you do cash in early as above, you pay the exchange commission (or the equivalent from pinnacle, their juice).

[meganie]

Yeah, I see where you guys are going, just making it statistics, and then you can say it doesn't matter at all who you picked. It's just betting value, like it's just like poker. Then a computer is the best at it. Of course, if you take a 40% instead of 60% and win, then you're right up to 100%, and the 60 is right down to 0. I"ll leave you all be, I will just read what people are saying in these final matches. NOw it's interesting for me. other smaller matches aren't interesting.Also, I don't get all the games on t.v..

No, not at all. See HeeHAWWWW's posting above.

[wannabet]

Make sure you picks every game from here on out. I will be watching you 2 lol.

[BobHarvey]

Lou,

Nice going. Your tennis picks have filled the coffer for Sunday's SB!