THREADS! MOOOOOOAR THREEEEEEADS! My Third Thread <3 – Tennis Picks

[Hardcoar]

Djokovic @ 1.8 – 10 units (Ladbrokes)
Djokovic 2-0 @ 3 – 6 units (Ladbrokes)

KEXX
KEXX

Fognini/Seppi @ 3 – 10 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Peers/Murray @ 1.87 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

FUXX

Lee-roy Jenkins 1:st @ 3.75 – 8 units (Bet365)

FUXX

Rodionova @ 1.62 – 10 units (William Hill)

KEXX

Ozaki @ 2.2 – 8 units (William Hill)

FUXX

Sock @ 1.67 – 10 units (William Hill)

FUXX

Przysiezny @ 1.83 – 10 units (William Hill)

KEXX

Pervak -2.5 @ 1.9 – 10 units (Bet365)

FUXX




Total hits: 238
Total mishits: 282
Total stake: 3820u
Total yield: +305.342u
ROI: +8 % (rounded)

[Hardcoar]

Svitolina @ 3 – 10 units (Bet365)

[alpinepetey]

Anything overnight Hardcoar??

[Hardcoar]

I hope you bet on the wager posted directly above your reply.

[alpinepetey]

I did very nice hit.

[Hardcoar]

You are very observant.

[alexus110]

Svitolina @ 3 – 10 units (Bet365)

Loved this one. without suffering!
Thanks HC.....would like to learn from you, how did you came up with this pick,

[Hardcoar]

Well I looked at all the odds and match-ups, and found them ridiculous, despite Svitolina's slight back issues a couple of weeks back. It's not very complicated.

[Hardcoar]

Berlocq/Del-Potro @ 1.75 – 10 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Zakopalova/Niculescu @ 1.83 – 10 units (William Hill)

[jugg1]

Do you think Del Potro will win it pretty easily, 2-0 maybe? Thoughts?

[Hardcoar]

Yes I think Del Potro will win it pretty easily, in straight sets.

[jugg1]

Thanks mate. I was just worried about him being fatigued and Kohlschrieber's form..

[jessetk313]

Sorry hardcoar but are your plays for del potro against kohlschreiber where del potro is +450?

[fitguy67]

jess, looks to me lyk the doubles match, Berlocq & DelPo (vs. Andujar & Lopez), Shanghai Masters

http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1130195

this is a great site by the way for figuring all this stuff out...on left-side menu, clik on "players"...type in player's name (or one of the two names if it's dubs)...then clik on their "next match" and voila, everything--including current prices at a ton of good books

[jessetk313]

thanks brotha

[Hardcoar]

F*cking squirrel beat me to it. As much as I love that little critter, he's right.

You don't have to excuse yourself for asking me a question.

[Hardcoar]

Mayer @ evens – 10 units (Ladbrokes)

[Hardcoar]

Kumkhum 1:st @ 3.9 – 8 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Melzer 1:st @ 2.75 – 10 units (Bet365)

[Hardcoar]

Schiavone @ 4.33 – 6 units (Bet365)

[Hardcoar]

Reid 1:st @ 3.25 – 8 units (Bet365)

[Hardcoar]

Doi/Miyamura @ 2.9 – 6 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Stosur 2-1 @ 4.33 – 6 units (Ladbrokes)

[Hardcoar]

DogPooLove 1:st @ 6.5 – 8 units (Ladbrokes)

[Hardcoar]

Brands 1:st @ 4 – 10 units (William Hill)

[Hardcoar]

Berlocq 1:st @ 3.4 – 8 units (Bet365)

[horja1]

what do you think about Pospisil?

[Hardcoar]

Wasn't in in time but I didn't like the odds. If anything I liked Monfils, but the uncertainty was just too great for me.

[wagerjunkie]

Schiavone @ 4.33 – 6 units (Bet365)

can you a little in depth of why you think she pulls out the W today? I have Ivanovic winning 1st set. not to comfortable about it now.

[Hardcoar]

What makes you think I think she pulls out the win?

[wagerjunkie]

What makes you think I think she pulls out the win?

aren't you betting her? or was that yesterdays match

[Hardcoar]

I am.

[fitguy67]

Schiavone @ 4.33 – 6 units (Bet365)

can you a little in depth of why you think she pulls out the W today? I have Ivanovic winning 1st set. not to comfortable about it now.

<br>

Wager Junkie, the answer my friend is in the odds...

a bet on something at 4.33 does not mean you expect it to win (that is, to occur at >50%)...

it means that you simply expect it to occur with a greater probability than that implied in the odds, in this case just 23.09% (=1/4.33)

this is the essence of "value" betting...taking bets whenever your analysis predicts a higher probability of winning than the implied or "break even" probability buried in the price you're getting

this is why HC is long-term positive even tho substantially lower than 50% in the hit-rate department

and why he can both bet on Shiavone and know the bet is more likely to lose than win (THIS time...but if u habitually take such bets and they occasionally win....at a better than 23.09% rate...KA-CHING!!!)

...Rocket J. Squirrel filling in for Naked Tsonga

[wagerjunkie]

<br>

Wager Junkie, the answer my friend is in the odds...

a bet on something at 4.33 does not mean you expect it to win (that is, to occur at >50%)...

it means that you simply expect it to occur with a greater probability than that implied in the odds, in this case just 23.09% (=1/4.33)

this is the essence of "value" betting...taking bets whenever your analysis predicts a higher probability of winning than the implied or "break even" probability buried in the price you're getting

this is why HC is long-term positive even tho substantially lower than 50% in the hit-rate department

and why he can both bet on Shiavone and know the bet is more likely to lose than win (THIS time...but if u habitually take such bets and they occasionally win....at a better than 23.09% rate...KA-CHING!!!)

...Rocket J. Squirrel filling in for Naked Tsonga

you damn math nerds

nah totally joking. congrats and continued success