Wimbledon: Whites only! No! The sign is talking about clothing! It means clothing!

ParlayininHTown · 06-23-13, 11:42 PM

Wimbledon 2013
Play 1
TOTAL: Brown vs. Garcia-Lopez OVER 40 (-105)
Risking $210.00 to win $200.00

Wimbledon 2013
Play 2
TOTAL: Hewitt vs. Wawrinka OVER 40.5 (-110)
Risking $110.00 to win $100.00

Wimbledon 2013
Play 3
PARLAY: Mannarino ML and Youzhny ML (-251)
Risking $502.00 to win $200.00

Total record for this slam: 0-0-0
Profit/loss: $0.00

ParlayininHTown · 06-24-13, 02:07 PM

Been all over the place today. I have missed practically everything, including Steve Darcis' massive upset. Props to him on a convincing win over Nadal. No one saw that coming, although there was one poster who put the question out there. Here's hoping he didn't listen to us ignorant fools and cashed big on that match.

As far as my picks ... well, it was looking good early. Mannarino and Youzhny cruised. I was disappointed that GGL let Doo Doo Brown take such a massive dump on him. Oh well. I wasn't expecting to win all three bets.

The Wawrinka-Hewitt over was looking great with Wawrinka up 4-1 in the second, but this is tennis. A match, a set and a game can take a turn for the worse (or better) at any moment. I'm holding out hope Stan can somehow fight his way through the third set, although it appears I have begun Wimbledon on the wrong foot. I honestly did not see how either of these guys would win in straight sets, but Hewitt is in impressive form at the moment. I should've just taken a shot at Hewitt ML. It was better odds than the over anyway.

Wimbledon 2013
Total record for this slam: 1-2-0
Profit/loss: -$120.00

ParlayininHTown · 06-25-13, 12:03 AM

Wimbledon 2013
Play 4
PARLAY: Haas ML and Levine ML (-392)
Risking $1,000.00 to win $255.10

Wimbledon 2013
Play 5
Istomin ML (+165)
Risking $100.00 to win $165.00

I'll be honest. I'm terrified.

theballsflop · 06-25-13, 04:55 AM

Play 4... really? I've done some big units on parlays with low odds before, but always on the top 4 ranked ATP players and Serene/Azarenka/Sharapova on the WTA. There's so much more variance than is reflected in the odds of the lower echelon players early on in the Slams.

Still, I wish you the best!

ParlayininHTown · 06-25-13, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by theballsflop

Play 4... really? I've done some big units on parlays with low odds before, but always on the top 4 ranked ATP players and Serene/Azarenka/Sharapova on the WTA. There's so much more variance than is reflected in the odds of the lower echelon players early on in the Slams.

Still, I wish you the best!

You are absolutely correct about that, but it's sort of a pick-your-poison situation. Even the bigger names have inflated moneyline prices that do not seem rational. In retrospect, I should have taken Nishikori, who had similar odds to Levine and is much more reliable on this big of a stage. I didn't like that he nearly lost to Ebden at the 2012 Aussie Open, if memory serves correct.

Still, it was a mistake to bet Levine at such a huge number regardless of the result. Sometimes I throw caution to the wind and make a reckless bet like that, and I've been burned by these enough to know better. It worked out today, so it won't bother me as much as it should.

theballsflop · 06-25-13, 09:50 AM

Yeah, I do understand the quandry you're talking about, really a headache to select the optimal mix for such wagers.

Grats on the win anyway, us Chinese have a saying: Xiao qian hao guo mei qian ... literally translates to 'small money is better than no money'. Check back in tomorrow to view your picks and to add my selections as well!

ParlayininHTown · 06-25-13, 12:05 PM

Wimbledon 2013
Total record for this slam: 2-3-0
Profit/loss: +$35.10

Not a bad day at all. I'm in the black for the tournament, and that's all I can ask for ...

ParlayininHTown · 06-25-13, 10:37 PM

Wimbledon 2013
Play 6
Ram ML (+270)
Risking $50.00 to win $135.00

Wimbledon 2013
Play 7
Stepanek ML (+130)
Risking $50.00 to win $65.00

I'm taking it easy tomorrow and hoping for a split on these two dogs. I like a lot of the heavy favorites, but I'm taking a patient approach to this slam. No need to force a play on an unreliable player such as Benoit Paire or Nick Mahut just because I think it's a safe winner. Worst case scenario, I'm down less than $70 after three days, which is certainly manageable moving forward.

Jago2008 · 06-25-13, 11:16 PM

Originally posted by ParlayininHTown

Wimbledon 2013
Play 6
Ram ML (+270)
Risking $50.00 to win $135.00

Wimbledon 2013
Play 7
Stepanek ML (+130)
Risking $50.00 to win $65.00

I'm taking it easy tomorrow and hoping for a split on these two dogs. I like a lot of the heavy favorites, but I'm taking a patient approach to this slam. No need to force a play on an unreliable player such as Benoit Paire or Nick Mahut just because I think it's a safe winner. Worst case scenario, I'm down less than $70 after three days, which is certainly manageable moving forward.

Hmm what's your reasoning behind Stepanek??

ParlayininHTown · 06-26-13, 12:33 AM

Originally posted by Jago2008

Hmm what's your reasoning behind Stepanek??

Three words: Serve and volley.

Janowicz should win, but I don't think -140 or -150 is a great price considering he has a sore elbow. I'm taking a conservative approach to the first two or three rounds, so I'd rather take my chances on the healthier, more experienced player at plus money.

If this were a pick 'em, I'd be all over Jerzy. It's more about my perception of value in this match than who I think will win.

theballsflop · 06-26-13, 02:37 AM

Picked an enhanced multiple called The Big Servers.

Cilic, Tsonga, Isner & Janowicz.

Getting some added value is always nice when I was gonna pick em anyway.

Just hope that Janowicz doesnt blowup...

ParlayininHTown · 06-26-13, 08:09 PM

Man, I should have listened to beefcake. I was too impressed with Hewitt's win over Wawrinka to back Doo Doo Brown, but he went out there and smacked Hewitt around in style. That cat is fun to watch, and I hope he can continue on this roll as the season continues.

I'd like to thank Radek Stepanek and my book's stupid rule about grand-slam matches needing three complete sets to be graded for helping me out today. I don't care much for the rule -- even when it benefits me -- but it's part of the price I pay to avoid dealing with the p2p nonsense, Bookmaker's inflated lines, and Tony's fraudulent tough guy act.

Wimbledon 2013
Total record for this slam: 2-4-1
Profit/loss: -$14.90

theballsflop · 06-26-13, 08:21 PM

Yeah tell me about it. 4 out of the 4 matches in my parlay had retirements, what in the blue hell is going on.

theballsflop · 06-26-13, 09:09 PM

Going with Halep against Li Na. Halep's red hot right now, Li Na's only had 2 matches on grass coming into Wimbledon. Add her tendency to disappear in matches, 2.65 for Halep is too yummy. 2.5 units

ParlayininHTown · 06-26-13, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by theballsflop

Going with Halep against Li Na. Halep's red hot right now, Li Na's only had 2 matches on grass coming into Wimbledon. Add her tendency to disappear in matches, 2.65 for Halep is too yummy. 2.5 units

I like it. She's on quite a winning streak, so why not take a shot?

frugalgambler · 06-26-13, 11:07 PM

I like it too and I'll probably put a unit on Halep; but she also struggled in her last match against a pretty bad player and Li Na can tough as nails when she wants too.

ParlayininHTown · 06-26-13, 11:14 PM

Wimbledon 2013
Play 8
Sijsling ML (+205)
Risking $50.00 to win $102.50

Wimbledon 2013
Play 9
PARLAY: Chardy ML and Flodonis ML (-196)
Risking $294.00 to win $150.00

Chardy worries me a little, but I'm hoping "good Chardy" shows up and takes care of business. If the in-form Flodonis loses, I can only tip my cap to Mathieu for playing a great match.

I'm also fading Raonic because he seems to always bust out of slams as a favorite. Plus, Sijsling is having a solid season. I like the value here, but take that for what it's worth considering I have not predicted a single underdog winner during this tournament.

Stay up ...

ParlayininHTown · 06-28-13, 12:34 AM

Here's the good news: Sijsling's victory over Raonic put me back in the black for the tournament.

Here's the bad news: As a result of Mathieu's retirement, play 9 is now just a straight moneyline bet on Chardy. Damn it.

Wimbledon 2013
Play 9
Chardy ML (-350)
Risking $294.00 to win $84.00

Wimbledon 2013
Total record for this slam: 3-4-1
Profit/loss: +$87.60

ParlayininHTown · 06-28-13, 12:51 AM

Wimbledon 2013
Play 10
Mannarino ML (+130)
Risking $100.00 to win $130.00

Wimbledon 2013
Play 11
Janowicz ML (-125)
Risking $125.00 to win $100.00

I wish I could watch Jerzy-Nico, because it should be a fun match full of big serves, particularly if the roof is closed due to rain. Sadly, I will be far too busy to see how this unfolds. If you can catch one match tomorrow, sit down and watch this one.

*Cue the dominating straight-set result*

ParlayininHTown · 06-28-13, 09:33 PM

Wimbledon 2013
Total record for this slam: 6-4-1
Profit/loss: +$401.60

What a day. Chardy finished off Struff to cash what was originally a two-man parlay. Jerzy apparently handled Nico much more easily than I anticipated. But things went from good to perfect when Mannarino played well enough to knock off Doo Doo Brown and (sadly) crush Beefcake's dream of a Wimbledon final in which 2 Live Crew spectates from the Royal Box.

Sorry Beefcake. Maybe that dream will come true next year ...

ParlayininHTown · 06-28-13, 11:59 PM

Wimbledon 2013
Play 12
Flodonis ML (+180)
Risking $100.00 to win $180.00

Wimbledon 2013
Play 13
TOTAL: Anderson/Berdych OVER 39 (-105)
Risking $105.00 to win $100.00

I believe Anderson can push Berdych enough to get us over the hump on the total, but what do I really know? ... I can't pass on Flodonis at +180 with the way he has been playing. I would actually take Haas in this match if this was simply about picking a winner, but there's no way I am laying that much juice. I'll take my chances on the red-hot underdog.

theballsflop · 06-29-13, 10:27 AM

Very good bets so far bro. Happy for you. Nice call on Berdych as well.

Bit too late for me, going for Stosur and Riske. 1.5 units on both.

theballsflop · 06-29-13, 10:18 PM

Been punished with my previous bets.

Going for a big one with 10 units on:
Janowicz ML + Ferrer ML = 1.62

Wish me luck!!

ParlayininHTown · 06-30-13, 01:56 PM

Wimbledon 2013
Total record for this slam: 7-5-1
Profit/loss: +$401.60

I split on Saturday, and I didn't make a cent. I didn't lose one either. *Shrugs*

Typically, the second week of a slam is more predictable. This one is a different story, however, as many of the seeded players have fallen. I see some stuff I like in the futures department, but the board for Monday's matches looks like another tough one.

We'll see if I can find a way to lose less than $400 next week and reach my goal of finishing this slam above water. So far, so good.

ParlayininHTown · 06-30-13, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by theballsflop

Very good bets so far bro. Happy for you. Nice call on Berdych as well.

Bit too late for me, going for Stosur and Riske. 1.5 units on both.

Thanks for your support and opinion, man. The grass season is always the toughest for me, but I have avoided the extremely heavy chalk and produced good results to this point.

Good luck on your bets next week. Looks like you are quite confident in Ferrer and Jerzy, or at least more confident than I. Be careful with the ladies. I try my best to just never bet their matches because it just isn't my forte.

ParlayininHTown · 06-30-13, 10:44 PM

Wimbledon 2013
Play 14
ATS: Janowicz -5.5 (-105)
Risking $105.00 to win $100.00

Wimbledon 2013
Play 15
ATS: Kubot -2.5 (-105)
Risking $105.00 to win $100.00

To be honest, I'm not feeling strong about anything tomorrow. I'm hoping to split and tread water through this round. The quarterfinals and semis should present more attractive opportunities.

ParlayininHTown · 07-01-13, 11:55 AM

For the hell of it ... I would still be down less than $30 for the day if this play loses, and it's a light day at work for me. Why not burn an Andrew Jackson? I'm just hoping Haas can make this a lengthy, entertaining match.

Wimbledon 2013
Play 16
Haas ML (+605)
Risking $21.60 to win $130.68

ParlayininHTown · 07-01-13, 12:46 PM

This Djokovic-Haas match was over before it began.

ParlayininHTown · 07-01-13, 01:50 PM

Wimbledon 2013
Total record for this slam: 8-7-1
Profit/loss: +$375.00

Aside from the dumb throw-away bet on Haas, today was OK. I like how the quarterfinal draw unfolded today, and I am looking forward to the rest of this tournament.

ParlayininHTown · 07-01-13, 11:33 PM

Wimbledon 2013
Play 17
Kanepi ML (+260)
Risking $50.00 to win $130.00

I hate betting WTA, but I'm a degenerate. Damn you, Wimbledon schedulers.

theballsflop · 07-02-13, 12:12 AM

Why not look at Raddy to win the Chinese Robocop?

2.36 on Pinny, worth a shot. I was impressed by Raddy's counter-punching and almost non-existent UE. Li has proven that she implodes at some stage of a Slam, everytime.

ParlayininHTown · 07-02-13, 12:18 PM

Wimbledon 2013
Total record for this slam: 8-8-1
Profit/loss: +$325.00

Not bad at all to be up 3.25 units when your record is .500 and you bet this conservatively. I'll take that. I couldn't commit to any more WTA bets today, although my one lean (Flipkens-Kvitova over) would have cashed. WTA is simply too gut-wrenching for me to gamble on regularly.

ParlayininHTown · 07-03-13, 12:01 AM

Wimbledon 2013
Play 18
PARLAY: Janowicz ML and Murray ML
Risking $525.00 to win $168.30

Wimbledon 2013
Play 19
TOTAL: Del Potro/Ferrer OVER 41.5 (-110)
Risking $110.00 to win $100.00

Laying too much chalk on one play, but I can afford to lose the cash. I've watched some of Kubot's play in this tournament, and he likes to come toward the net quite often. His serve is no joke, but I don't believe he has enough to outlast Jerzy. Who knows? Maybe tomorrow will be Kubot's day. He does have the advantage of being the "grizzled veteran" in this spot. ... If Murray loses to Verdasco, I can think of only one way to describe it. It rhymes with oak.

Let the nausea begin ...

ParlayininHTown · 07-03-13, 04:00 PM

Wimbledon 2013
Total record for this slam: 9-9-1
Profit/loss: +$393.30

Man, am I glad I was too busy with work to do more than occasionally check the score of the Murray-Verdasco match on flashscore. I saw Murray was down two sets, and I was a little pissed ... but I kept calm knowing that Murray has matured into a different player mentally over the last couple of years and continued to focus on my work.

If I had been in a position to watch the match, it would have been much tougher to just focus on work and not worry about it until the final result was in. Long story longer, I catch a brief break on this busy day to check the score again, and I see that Murray had broken Verdasco to take a 6-5 lead in the fifth set. Beautiful.

This is what happens when you lay chalk. It's reckless and terrifying. It almost always works out, but it rarely seems to go as smoothly as you hope.

All the credit in the world goes to Verdasco, who had a fine run at Wimbledon. He played his ass off, and he was just caught in a tough situation and couldn't seal the deal. Maybe MDF is on to something about the ADD meds. haha.

I won't post more than one pick tomorrow, if I post any. It's a holiday, so I'll be kicking back and betting a little baseball. But women's tennis? I can live without it. Four days to go, and a decent profit near four units. That makes it tempting to play it far too safe the rest of the way to ensure a profit, but I'm not ready to shut down this thread.