I've decided to spread 500.00 between Djokovic, Federer, and Murray to win Wimbledon. Excluding Nadal - I'm really not keen with him on grass. I was thinking about taking a look at Berdych too, but maybe for 50 or 60. I'm thinking 250 to Djokovic, 150 on Murray, 75 on Fed and 25 on Berdych. A Djokovic or Murray win would ensure profit, a Fed win would break even, and Berdych would still net me over a grand if he were to win the tournament. Thoughts? Ideas? Odds listed below.
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I'm disregarding specific odds when saying this, but I really think Djokovic is indeed the heavy favorite, and I otherwise quite like Berdych as a betting prospect on grass. He's truly matured over the last year or so in from my point of view.
Apart from them I'm liking Janowicz, Gulbis, Gasquet, and Haas to contend, but they all lack the required fitness to take the crown as far as I'm concerned. Tsonga might be able to pull through but to be honest his actual chances of winning are relatively slim.
I definitely wouldn't count Nadal out though!Comment -
If Murray is healthy, and that is a huge IF, I think he stands a great chance. I really feel like it comes down to either him or Djokovic. Decisions, decisions.Comment -
my advice, wait for the draws if youre going to spread bet, unless you feel like you have a good idea of the seeding already.
to actually answer the question though:
-there could be value on delpo. he skipped the french and will be looking to make up ground.
-avoid federer.
-if nadal and djokovic are in opposite halves, take them both.
-i like tsonga but thats the wrong price. almost half of what berdych is paying? that seems off.Comment -
When betting futures, I tend to delegate my money in the fashion described above. 80% of the amount towards my top two choices (Muzza & Djokovic), a break even bet (Fed), and an exotic wildcard type of player (Berdych).Comment -
tough to predict with no draw...Novak would be my choice to Wimbledon
I would personally take Nadal over Fed
he's a 2 time champion and 3 time runner up
I feel Fed is on the decline
Berdchy and Tsonga would be my darkhorseComment -
federer is still capable of playing at a high level on all surfaces, especially grass, but the entire concept of a long tournament is working against him. he still has the tools to win, but apparently he is content to jog and go to hitting practice instead of getting a real strength and conditioning program. he is a stringbean with no muscle tone, and he says his "back hurts." that means you have to deadlift and squat, you scrawny little girl! no 31 year old who doesnt play a contact sport should have a back injury unless there are holes in their conditioning program. i want to kidnap this guy and force him to lift heavy, swear to god. these tennis players think they are golfers, like they have a perfect swing and cant tamper with it by lifting. he should be hitting tires with sledgehammers, doing explosive overhead press, and running with a sled! then he can start to compete again with his peers who use PEDs.Comment -
In my opinion you should stay the FK away from Federer and Murray. I doubt Murray will win it and even so his odds aren't justified.Comment -
+435? I thought that was generous from the books. I expected him to be around +325 or so. It's all about his back condition. I guess I'll wait for the draws and injury reports.Comment -
I guess I'm a Murray fanboy. I think the guy is supremely talented.Comment -
Is that the music you listen to while capping tennis?
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It is. I expect to get flamed a lot.
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Tough to call really, won't voice my opinion as I'm not leaning toward any of the top 4 in particular myself, I think you could make a strong argument for any of them really, but I will say if you are considering outsiders for the championship, think about Del Potro. The guy has a great game for grass, his main weakness compared to the top guys is that he doesn't move as well around the court. All the top 4 move really well on grass.
But Del Potro is a very dangerous player, the big serve and forehand combo is lethal on grass. He has also won the US Open so has experience going deep into slams.
Not saying he is my pick, but if you were going to lay a bit of money on an outsider, I would take a minute to consider him.Comment -
just go 250 on djkovic and save the rest... if you are not betting nadal there is no reason to waste money on anyone else. novak is such a huge favorite to win this tournament and with nadal on the other side he will have the best chance meet in the finals.
but nadal will not beat novak... this is a big play for me and should be for anyone wanted to make $$... good luckComment -
I'm also on the Delpo bandwagon! Much like Murray and Federer he's a wild card at the moment. Definitely has the potential to beat any player on tour on this surface imo.Comment -
u mad brah!???Comment -
Del Potro is a waste of money IMO.
My own opinion is to look at the "Player to Win Their Quarter" odds when the draws come out. You can find some better deals there than you do on overall odds. When Murray was fully healthy, he won me some nice cash at Slams by playing that prop because he was usually the one with the lowest price ... under -200 odds whereas Djokovic, etc. are usually -400 or something where it doesn't make much sense.
If you predict the quarter well where you find a low price on the highest seed, you can spread your money around with a heavier amount on the favorite (if you think they will make the semis) and then put some on a guy or two in the bottom part of the quarter.
All depends on prices as this may not make sense depending on where they set them.
If you're going overall, I'd look at the draw and pick which one of the Big Four you think has the best line to get to the Final. Likely to be Djokovic who will go through the #3 seed (Federer) to get to the Final. Maybe put down $250-$300 on him and then save the rest as hedge money.
Dunno. Lots of ways to play, but I think putting small amounts down on longer odds winds up being counter productive because it hurts your hedge opps later in tournaments if the long shots get in position.Comment -
Honestly, since I've started betting (2 years now), I've always wanted to make a big investment on this. I have made money with Federer at Roland Garros all 3 years (with betfair, buy high and selling later, almost ****** up this year if not for everyone warning me to sell before Tsonga's match) and I always feel like the money in this markets is to be made not necessarily on who you think will win it but on a big dog that you feel will advance further. Even if you don't use betfair you can always hedge when you decide.
With this said, if you're intention is to actually go for the win, I would lay off Berdych, Del Potro and etcs. Apart from that Del Potro win in the Us Open, when was the last time Djok, Federer, Nadal or Murray (he only won one, I know) have let a GS slide from them?! In my opinion is just throwing money away really. I would throw it almost all on Djok and then just have enough on the other to break even if I was you honestly. I think the only one who would beat him is actually Federer but there's the problem mentioned above of his conditioning.
One guy I suggest this year is definetly Dimitrov for futures who is priced at 210 (+21000 I think) on Betfair. Will definetly buy that and try to save if he gets quarter finals.Comment -
I'm still in awe that you have over 3000 dollars in your 5 dimes account..
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Cilic tearing it up on grass eight now.600-1 looks tastyComment -
Dimitrov is another waste of money unless he's given the cakewalk of all cakewalk draws. Guy hasn't done dick at a Slam yet and I don't think he's got the mental capacity/fitness yet to come close to most of the guys in the Top 10 at Slams.
I mean I guess if you're doing a strict buy out somewhere you could make some money if you accurately predict his loss, but it seems like a waste to me.Comment -
If the odds havent changed I would recommend you to just buy Serena. I bought it @2.50, I bought it @1.90. Now it is below @1.60
Since the odds are low, I would increase the budget. You have $3000+ in your acount so you could consider buying $1500 on Serena win @1.55, and use the rest of the money to buy Serena when she is a set down, or a break down on the 3rd set in any game, if that happens.
I dont see how someone can beat her when she is in shape. I expect her to have 15+ aces every game, 20+ in someComment -
LOL @ Dimitrov suggestion. There is no FKing way that kid is winning a slam this year, or even getting close in my opinion. He gets cramps in 2:nd. How is he supposed to win in 5:th?Comment -
LOL @ not knowing how to read? :s
"One guy I suggest this year is definetly Dimitrov for futures who is priced at 210 (+21000 I think) on Betfair. Will definetly buy that and try to save if he gets quarter finals."
this means a simply 5€ bet would give me 1000€ which, if Dimitrov got to the quarter finals like I said (which I don't think is that far fetched) I could probably sell at around 70-80, giving huge, penetrating, profits. If you read my entire post and not that sentence in context you can easily see I don't think he's going to win any slam. Heck, not this year, not any year in his career, even though he's one of my favorite players.Comment -
I started out with a 500 deposit 5 weeks ago and made one 1k withdrawal so it's nothing spectacular. Also in regards to the latest posts - besides Berdych, I feel that any bet outside the big 4 is a waste of money. I threw 300 hundo on Djokovic this morning and will let it ride and most likely hedge in the finals ...enough to get my money back if he loses (assuming he makes it there).Comment -
Still think Serena is the better bet despite the low odds...Comment -
Hm. I stand corrected. She's at -175 now. Maybe I'll parlay it with something..Comment
