Noleafclover's Tennis picks

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  • Noleafclover
    SBR MVP
    • 06-06-13
    • 1349

    #1
    Noleafclover's Tennis picks
    I'm a newer better who's had some success in NFL (45ish% profit 2011, 35ish% 2012) with aggressive bet sizing (5-10%), conservative amount of plays, and generally favorite plays ATS with a preference for teases.

    I tried tennis out last year with a similar strategy, and it was quite the rollercoaster - up to 75% and down to -10%. Hoping to make a better show of it this year - I want as much experience in different sports so I can feel comfortable looking at lines for all of them when I try to make a go of this, the more lines the more comfortable I'll be only picking ones I really like (theoretically). And yeah, I am airbetting right now. At least until NFL.

    For previous history, you can browse through here: http://natesbets.wordpress.com/category/tennis/
    And for last year's here: http://natesnfl11betting.blogspot.com

    Will do writeups sometimes.

    1 unit=200 on those pages=5%
    For bets -101 or lower, bets are to win x units
    For bets +101 or better, bets are risking x units

    Les go
  • Noleafclover
    SBR MVP
    • 06-06-13
    • 1349

    #2
    Lay the juice in the Ro32 Tennis 6/10/13

    Well, lets conservatively start with five bets.

    All 1 unit-

    Dimitrov -4 v Sela -135
    Hewitt/Russell < 21.5 -110
    Paire -3.5 v Baker -126
    Thiemo de Bakker -1.5 v Bozoljac+117
    Daniel Brands -3.5 v Hernych -108
    Comment
    • Noleafclover
      SBR MVP
      • 06-06-13
      • 1349

      #3
      Aand Hewitt covers just the side leaving me looking like a tool for taking the under to save juice

      Dimitrov looked ticked off Sela was out there just hittin 'em back. I don't think he has the patience for that style of play from relatively lower-ranked players, and didn't give it his all.

      YTD 2-3 -1.36 units

      for tomorrow 1 unit on
      • Benneteau -3 v Berankis -105
      • lopez -2.5 v Mannarino -113
      Comment
      • newjerseydevils
        SBR MVP
        • 03-11-08
        • 3110

        #4
        welcome and good luck!
        Comment
        • Hardcoar
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-17-13
          • 15606

          #5
          Seconded.
          Comment
          • Noleafclover
            SBR MVP
            • 06-06-13
            • 1349

            #6
            Thanks ya'll.

            ytd 3-4 -1.49 units


            cilic -3 v dodig -114
            youzhny over nishikori +114
            Comment
            • Noleafclover
              SBR MVP
              • 06-06-13
              • 1349

              #7
              Haas/Monfils > 23.5 -108
              Berdych -3 v Cilic -104

              still 1 unit
              Comment
              • Noleafclover
                SBR MVP
                • 06-06-13
                • 1349

                #8
                ytd 6-5 +.61 units

                youzhny/gasquet to go 3 sets +157
                Comment
                • Noleafclover
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-06-13
                  • 1349

                  #9
                  ytd 6-6 -.39 units

                  llodra -3.5 v hernych -120
                  benneteau -1.5 v tomic -108
                  Comment
                  • Noleafclover
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-06-13
                    • 1349

                    #10
                    ytd 6-8 -2.67 units

                    haas -6.5 -130 v Tursunov
                    anderson -6 -125 v Rochus
                    Djokovic or Nadal to win Wimbledon -163
                    Comment
                    • Noleafclover
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-06-13
                      • 1349

                      #11
                      ytd 8-8 -.67 units

                      melzer -3 v reister -120
                      hewitt -6 v brown -145
                      youzhny -6 v pospisil -130
                      Comment
                      • Noleafclover
                        SBR MVP
                        • 06-06-13
                        • 1349

                        #12
                        2 units on melzer
                        Comment
                        • Noleafclover
                          SBR MVP
                          • 06-06-13
                          • 1349

                          #13
                          ytd 8-10 -3.42 units

                          Haas/wong < 30 -115
                          Youzhny -2.5 v Troicki -115
                          Melzer over Stakhovsky +112
                          Comment
                          • Noleafclover
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-06-13
                            • 1349

                            #14
                            ytd 10-10 -1.3 units
                            berdych -5 over anderson -120
                            haas - 4 lopez -105
                            Comment
                            • Noleafclover
                              SBR MVP
                              • 06-06-13
                              • 1349

                              #15
                              ytd 12-11 +.5 units

                              del potro -5.5 v Seppi -120
                              Comment
                              • Noleafclover
                                SBR MVP
                                • 06-06-13
                                • 1349

                                #16
                                ytd 13-11 +1.5 units

                                Ferrer over Del Potro -140

                                DelPo with the knee injury against Ferrer who will take him a little deeper into points. Did seem to favor it during/after the Seppi matchup (limping into hotel). Stylistically, have to like Ferrer to continue to own DelPo (lot of similarity to Tsonga) and he is 6-2 in the head to head, 4-0 since December of 2011, and 2-0 on grass without a set dropped.


                                —I think it IS worth laying the extra -15 for this straight up instead of against the spread if you play at 5dimes, as there’s the possibility DelPo could retire up a set, or near even/up on games, with the knee. Slim, but >3% of that or a miraculous nocover on a win, as I see it.
                                Comment
                                • Noleafclover
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 06-06-13
                                  • 1349

                                  #17
                                  ytd 13-12 +.1 units

                                  djokovic over 10.5 aces -120
                                  djokovic serves most aces +125
                                  Comment
                                  • Hardcoar
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 02-17-13
                                    • 15606

                                    #18
                                    I thought of props such as those, but you have to consider that these two are (apart from being two of the best servers in the world), by far and away the world's best returners.

                                    That makes serving props very unpredictable as they aren't as reliant on the abilities of the server as usual.

                                    At any rate, I hope you win your bets and enjoy the match!
                                    Comment
                                    • Noleafclover
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 06-06-13
                                      • 1349

                                      #19
                                      That should even out for the latter prop in theory; and if anything you say Djokovic is typically the better returner, no? But maybe you say it just makes the prop more unpredictable overall? Former was kind of a play to the over, did not see a 3-setter.

                                      Anyway, Djokker looked like crap - certainly wasn't serving as he had been, as McEnroe also commented. Probably drained from the DelPo match, bleh.
                                      Comment
                                      • Noleafclover
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 06-06-13
                                        • 1349

                                        #20
                                        ytd 13-15 -3.73 units

                                        Isner -2 v Harrison -110
                                        Przysiezny/Kozlov u21½ -108
                                        Comment
                                        • Hardcoar
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 02-17-13
                                          • 15606

                                          #21
                                          Yeah overall since both are such amazing returners. You got unlucky though the way Djokobo had been serving every round before...
                                          Comment
                                          • Noleafclover
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-06-13
                                            • 1349

                                            #22
                                            I think so. Gonna roll a little less ... hardcore... though, 3 correlated bets on a contested match was nuts (future was out) . Pretty much a bet a day seems excessive, too.

                                            ytd 14-16 -3.81 units

                                            troicki -4 vs Souza -124
                                            Comment
                                            • Noleafclover
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 06-06-13
                                              • 1349

                                              #23
                                              ytd 15-16 -2.81 units

                                              chardy -4 v Berrer -104
                                              Comment
                                              • Noleafclover
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-06-13
                                                • 1349

                                                #24
                                                ytd 15-17 -3.85

                                                isner -2.5 v karlovic
                                                Comment
                                                • Noleafclover
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-06-13
                                                  • 1349

                                                  #25
                                                  ytd 15-18 -5.05

                                                  kohlschreiber -3.5 -120
                                                  de bakker +195(to win 1unit)
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Noleafclover
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 06-06-13
                                                    • 1349

                                                    #26
                                                    ytd 16-19 -4.563

                                                    kohlschreiber -2 -104
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Noleafclover
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 06-06-13
                                                      • 1349

                                                      #27
                                                      Took Haase -2.5 -103, didn't post it. Getting lazy. Things are grim.

                                                      ytd 16-21 -6.633

                                                      robredo -3 +115
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Noleafclover
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-06-13
                                                        • 1349

                                                        #28
                                                        ytd 16-22 -7.633

                                                        almagro -2.5 -113

                                                        falla -2 -114
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Noleafclover
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 06-06-13
                                                          • 1349

                                                          #29
                                                          ytd 18-22 -5.63

                                                          fognini +120
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Noleafclover
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-06-13
                                                            • 1349

                                                            #30
                                                            ytd 19-22 -4.43

                                                            fognini -3 v delbonis -116
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Noleafclover
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 06-06-13
                                                              • 1349

                                                              #31
                                                              karlovic -1.5 v ebden -116
                                                              fognini -3.5 v de bakker -115
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Noleafclover
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 06-06-13
                                                                • 1349

                                                                #32
                                                                ytd 20-23 -4.59 u

                                                                robredo -3 v troicki -120
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Noleafclover
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-06-13
                                                                  • 1349

                                                                  #33
                                                                  ytd 21-23 -3.59u

                                                                  fognini -3.5 v klizan -101

                                                                  wawrinka -3.5 v f lopez evens
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Noleafclover
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 06-06-13
                                                                    • 1349

                                                                    #34
                                                                    fognini -3 -101
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Noleafclover
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 06-06-13
                                                                      • 1349

                                                                      #35
                                                                      not even close baby
                                                                      ytd 23-24 -2.59u

                                                                      youzhny -3 v haase -110

                                                                      edit: record
                                                                      Comment
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