Tsonga vs Ferrer Semi-Final!

[ohumad]

Who do you guys like?

05:00

Ferrer D. - Tsonga J-W.

1.67

2.23

HEAD TO HEAD

44/2012 ATP Paris (FRA)	I_Hard	David Ferrer	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	6-2 7-5		1/4	2.26	-	1.63
52/2011 ATP The Mubadala World Tennis Championship (UAE)	Hard	David Ferrer	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	2-6 7-6(5) 6-2		First	2.24	-	1.63
25/2011 ATP Wimbledon (GBR)	Grass	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	David Ferrer	6-3 6-4 7-6(1)		Fourth	1.47	-	2.66
17/2010 ATP Rome (ITA)	Clay	David Ferrer	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	6-4 6-1		1/4	1.5	-	2.56

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

22/2013 ATP French Open (FRA)	Clay	WIN	R. Federer	7-5 6-3 6-3		2.64	-	1.47
	Clay	WIN	V. Troicki	6-3 6-3 6-3		1.07	-	7.85
	Clay	WIN	J. Chardy	6-1 6-2 7-5		1.15	-	5.31
	Clay	WIN	J. Nieminen	7-6(6) 6-4 6-3		1.1	-	6.54
	Clay	WIN	A. Bedene	6-2 6-2 6-3		1.06	-	8.62

David Ferrer

22/2013 ATP French Open (FRA)	Clay	WIN	T. Robredo	6-2 6-1 6-1		1.04	-	10.47
	Clay	WIN	K. Anderson	6-3 6-1 6-1		1.09	-	7.27
	Clay	WIN	F. Lopez	6-1 7-5 6-4		1.01	-	14
	Clay	WIN	A. Montanes	6-2 6-1 6-3		1.02	-	12.65
	Clay	WIN	M. Matosevic	6-4 6-3 6-4		1.01	-	20.67

[Hardcoar]

At these odds Tsonga (@2.4) if anything. I think they'll even out a bit before "time" is called.

I give Ferrer about a 55/45 % edge here. Then you have to factor in me being wrong of course. That'd be the margin of error I suppose...

[sarasmith]

Hard to know how much was Tsonga playing better than he ever has today or Federer playing worse! Early lean Tsonga. I like Ferrer but I struggle to back him against other top 8 players especially ones with power games like a Tsonga or Delpo, sure he has beaten both in the past but I know which side I'd rather be on.

[Hardcoar]

If you think that's hard to tell you should probably stay away from betting.

[Sport_Fish]

Tough call...this will be the first true test for Tsonga to tell us if he's for real or just had an easy draw.

I'd lean Tsonga because of the odds.

[Hardcoar]

One should always lean someone because of the odds. I dearly hope that's your usual approach.

[sarasmith]

Alright no need to be a prick. Sure Fed was awful today but Tsonga was also playing some world class shots. Perhaps you could enlighten us with your vast wisdom?

[Hardcoar]

I don't have any vast wisdom to offer I'm afraid, but from merely watching the match I thought Federer sucked far more ass than Tsonga proved himself. It's impossible to really draw any conclusions regarding Tsonga's play due to the lack of a challenge he faced today, but it seemingly wasn't bad today at the very least.

True though – it is hard to know how much the two variables manifested themselves, but it's not hard to know which one did so more than the other, in my opinion...

Did you watch the match?

[horja1]

Tsonga ML

[EaglesPhan36]

I am pulling for Ferrer. If ever a dude deserved to get to a Slam Final, this is the dude. It would be like his lifetime achievement award to get it here IMO. I give the edge to Ferrer for fitness and the surface. End of the day, I think the price is spot on and the outcome is a coin flip.

[Hardcoar]

If the price (Tsonga @ 2.4) is spot on then how can it be a coin flip?

I agree with you though, but I love both guys so I'm just hoping for a great match. I really don't see this match being a bash in either direction...

[sarasmith]

Yep I watched every second of the match as unfortunately, and like EP36 I had a bet on over 3.5 sets looking for a bit of 'easy' money lol after cashing big yesterday Stanny W when he was 2-1 down. Sure Fed hit a ton of errors but Tsonga also hit a ton of winners and kept his errors way down. I agree this match is a coin flip just slightly favouring Ferrer. Could be tempted by the over but after being burned today maybe not!

[Hardcoar]

Over is just as likely here as it was in today's match. I'm still not touching it though...

[baconbets]

grand slam semis are a good time to move away from "value" and move towards who you actually think will win when considering a bet. if you dont have strong feeling, skip it and consider it a free research opportunity for the finals. if ferrer wins, we all get free money as either nadal or djokovic will kill him in the final. if tsonga wins, the final gets a little more murky, in my opinion.

i am a ferrer fader this year because he has looked less consistent. this is a problem when his only real weapon is consistency. however, if he is playing well, be brings a style puzzle to tsonga that he hasnt seen yet this tournament.

as a common opponent, tsonga has basically drawn even with wawrinka, while wawrinka ran over ferrer. some may give credit to ferrer for taking a set off nadal in 2 separate meetings, but i see that more as evidence that ferrer cant close against the big guns on tour even when the door is open. see miami final.

i will wait for the props on this one.

[EaglesPhan36]

If the price (Tsonga @ 2.4) is spot on then how can it be a coin flip?

I agree with you though, but I love both guys so I'm just hoping for a great match. I really don't see this match being a bash in either direction...

Price doesn't have anything to do with the outcome. All I mean is based on the surface and the players, Ferrer should be a slight favorite as is. If it were on a hard surface, price would likely be flipped IMO - but still has nothing to do with my assessment that it's about 50-50.

[Demonata]

Tsongaaaaaaaaaaa

[Sport_Fish]

One should always lean someone because of the odds. I dearly hope that's your usual approach.

key word 'lean'. Yes I'd lean Tsonga because its a close call and in these cases if I have to pick, I'd usually go with the + money. Doesn't mean I'd actually bet it...just posting my opinion.

[Goat Milk]

ferrer probably but tough call

i like djokovic to beat nadal here.

[ohumad]

Tough call indeed! ML not for the faint of heart ie. only degens . I got Tsonga but Ferrer owning Robredo like that is scary! Dude has only been eliminated by the big 4 in the last 5 slams too. I think Tsonga can do to Ferrer what Stan did in Portugal though. He's got the precision and power to hit winners on one of the best returners in the game and a bunch of other crap. I'm in!

[benrama]

Ferrer will win this one, it will be a slug-fest and won't be easy, but Tsonga has a history of self-destructing and going through stretches of unforced errors. On clay he doesn't get as many easy winners as the hard courts, and for scrappers who can keep getting the ball back they just need to hang in long enough to let Tsonga beat himself.

Ferrer in 4 or 5 sets for me.

[pazim]

Hard to know how much was Tsonga playing better than he ever has today or Federer playing worse! Early lean Tsonga. I like Ferrer but I struggle to back him against other top 8 players especially ones with power games like a Tsonga or Delpo, sure he has beaten both in the past but I know which side I'd rather be on.

ferrer beat him in london finals last year. Tsonga was in worst him. He made lotvof .errors

[TheMLBKing]

Alright no need to be a prick. Sure Fed was awful today but Tsonga was also playing some world class shots. Perhaps you could enlighten us with your vast wisdom?

hardcoar is the biggest tool on these forums, don't mind him.

[CaptainOmar111]

hardcoar is the biggest tool on these forums, don't mind him.

[steviec27]

Tsonga is the play IMO.
I pretty much make it a flip, and with the odds on offer for JWS it makes him the play.

Not to mention the home crowd will give him a good 5% extra.
When nigh on the entire crowd is rooting for you there's always that little bit extra in you to make it to a ball you otherwise wouldn't etc.
In a match of such small margins, that could become a big factor.

[lucasdawg]

i liked how both player went in their reccent matches. tough call. probs take tsonga ml

[Hardcoar]

Price doesn't have anything to do with the outcome. All I mean is based on the surface and the players, Ferrer should be a slight favorite as is. If it were on a hard surface, price would likely be flipped IMO - but still has nothing to do with my assessment that it's about 50-50.

Saying @ 2.4 is spot on is incompatible with saying it's a coin-flip.

In other words: It's impossible to think the match is "a coin flip" and also consider those odds "spot on".

I never said the odds affect the actual probabilities themselves.

[strybie]

Tsonga, he plays @ home ... and plays great tennis right now !

[Hangoverblack]

I am pulling for Ferrer. If ever a dude deserved to get to a Slam Final, this is the dude. It would be like his lifetime achievement award to get it here IMO. I give the edge to Ferrer for fitness and the surface. End of the day, I think the price is spot on and the outcome is a coin flip.

Herein lies the answer. We are asking for a result that has never happened before. From a man known for his predictability and consistency. If he were going to earn this by now, it would have happened already. This is his surface, but he plays their hero and the crowd will not lead him to victory.

I believe in the power of the mind. Is Ferrer capable of winning, or will he find a way in the key moments to lose?

[samus82]

I don't think this match will be as tight as people think, Ferrer is the much better clay court player. I like Ferrer to win -1.5 sets.

[Tsonga]

I think this will be a pretty good match to watch. I think the odds are about 60-65 percent chance that Tsonga will NOT win...I wouldn't mind him winning though. I do have him picked before the tournament to take out Ferrer here, but Ferrer is more consistent than Fed and will put up a better fight. Ferrer will be a tough guy to put down. Hoping for a great match to watch.

[Hardcoar]

Mäh

[terpkeg]

Saying @ 2.4 is spot on is incompatible with saying it's a coin-flip.

In other words: It's impossible to think the match is "a coin flip" and also consider those odds "spot on".

I never said the odds affect the actual probabilities themselves.

Keep your logic to yourself. Don't want it to spread.

[matt1216]

Tsonga can taste the finals atleast. Ferrer would get waxed vs djoker or nadal aaaagggaaaiinnn. Tsonga wins

[horja1]

from these 2 only Tsonga might have a chance to win it all ... Ferrer will lose 3-0 to either Nadal or Djokovic

[Regul8er]

It seems like a coinflip.....so why not take the dog and save the juice?