nice picks and futures

[baconbets]

i noticed this is a fairly lopsided bracket. isner, haase, fognini, simon, andujar and formerly seppi on the bottom half. monfils in there as well, though he is still far from in-form.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Share/Event-Draws.aspx?EventId=6120&Year=2013

which top half player is the best value for a futures play?

berankis 33:1
montanes 24:1 (my book doesnt actually have a montanes line for some reason, this line is from pinnacle)
berlocq 10:1


for picks, anyone like giraldo +145 over monfils?

[lucasdawg]

looks like a chance i say, giraldo is great on clay. monfils seems like hes been struggling thru some of the decent players to get into the tournament.

[ohumad]

Did you take anyone? I see you don't have Hanescu on your list . I put a little on him, but playing like he did against Ramos for the duration of the tournament might be too much to ask.

[baconbets]

photo finish with giraldo today, 3 close sets, but no win. i had giraldo, but for a very small amount (im on probation).

very interested to hear comments from people who saw berankis vs istomin. i've seen some people picking him on this board. i dont think istomin is a great clay courter but it appears berankis ran over him. the only footage ive seen of berankis is him losing to isner in houston, which isnt very telling because isner is such an unusual player. berankis future is 25:1, which is an appealing future for the reason i describe in my first post, which is that his half of the bracket is thin.

[lucasdawg]

i went with berankis, put down a play yesterday. odds dropped more today, contemplating on weather i should put another play down

[baconbets]

the pressure of being the only pro lithuanian tennis player was again too much for berankis, who flamed out in the 3rd.

today's action
hradecka 2-0 +190 = WIN
hradecka -105 = WIN
torro-flor +110 = LOSS
berankis +150 = LOSS
montanes +130 = WIN
stakhovsky +120 = LOSS
Bedene -125 = LOSS
zemlja 2-0 +300 = LOSS
haase +110 = WIN
haase 2-0 +250 = LOSS
fognini 2-0 +220 = LOSS
fognini +110 = LOSS

hedge approx +120 = WIN
(berankis 2-1 +450 = LOSS
roger-vasselin 2-1 +275 = WIN)

hedge approx -200 = WIN
(fognini 2-0 +220 = LOSS
monfils 2-0 +190 = WIN)

govortsova future +4000 = LOSS
berankis future +2500 = LOSS

french open qualifiying:
beck -250 = WIN
huta galung -185 = LOSS
elias -225 = LOSS
Ungur -500 = WIN
stebe +120 = LOSS

parlay approx +220 = LOSS
(elias -225 = LOSS
riba -225 = WIN
huta galung -185 = LOSS)

not good on qualifiers today.

wozniacki is terrible. took her live price at +800 because this is WTA. youd think a good defensive player with no power would thrive on clay.

brutal day with fognini wrapping it up.

[Dmoneytx]

Hey bacon! I just saw your thread and wanted to say Good Luck! I hope you do well here and thanks in advance for all of your hard work man. I hope you get more of those matches to end in green! Go get em!

[Pinocchio]

Wow, lots of red. Want some green?

French open qualies (W)
Zanevska
Kumkhum
Babos

Brussels (W)
Kanepi

[innn]

got you and myself other green:
Beygelzimer 2,75

[innn]

got you and myself other green:
Beygelzimer 2,75

didn't please nobody my pick?

[Pinocchio]

French open qualies (W)
Zanevska - loss
Kumkhum - loss
Babos - loss

Wow.


Brussels (W)
Kanepi

Yup, putting more on Kanepi, can't go 0-4...

Cursed thread!

[baconbets]

better today:

roger vaseline +105 = WIN
andujar live bet 1st set +200 = WIN

need some help with open bets:

parlay approx +245 = WIN
struff -250 = WIN
carreno busta -190 = WIN
hradecka -165 = WIN

hradecka future +2000 = OPEN

lay a big stack on larsson +120 as a hedge against hradecka? i feel like leaving the parlay unhedged is really doubling down on hradecka. if hradecka loses, i lose the parlay and the future at the same time. hedging and taking some risk off the table seems like the right move, but id like some ideas as to whether i can get a read on larsson for purposes of taking her 2-0 +275 or 2-1 +400 set props instead of her +120 money line. if larsson wins, is it a 2-1 WTA shitfest, or is it a 2-0 stomp?

not sure about kanepi at that price and at this stage. lepchenko seems like more of a hardcourt player, perhaps because she is an american transplant. her name says clay, but her residence says hard. as a rule i usually only bet kanepi when she is an underdog because she can be inconsistent. its worth taking a hard hitter when the money is positive. lepchenko's clay losses have been high quality: kirilenko, errani, kuz. cant pull the trigger on kanepi at -250.


oh, and penetrate the miami heat for winning by one point. my book had heat -8 with a -450 money line. but they had an alternate point spread of -1.5 at -280. for anyone who bets basketball, -1.5 is basically like taking a team outright, but -280 is almost a 50% discount from the outright price of -450. heat won by 1 point, in overtime, after being up 3 points in regulation with 2 seconds left. the fix is in.