8 day x $8 parlays x 1.68 = $508 Challenge

[felix_felicus7]

Hi All,

Recently discovered this board & find it very interesting & enjoyable.

I wanted to use this thread to document a well-worn strategy & hope it keeps my betting very structured... so I don't end up slapping half my bankroll on a Davydenko, Gasquet, Tomic or Kvitova match anytime soon! ;-)

Just looking to have 2 x $8 (2% of roll) parlays (or multis, as us Aussies call them) running continually, with 1-3 legs each totalling 1.68 (-147) or better, which I'll re-invest every day. If I find 2-3 legs irresistable enough which total 2.82, then I'll do 2 days at once. If I can win one multi 8 days str8 then its $508...wishful thinking.

Using Bet365 exclusively atm, but making selections from any ATP, WTA & Challengers - singles or dbls.

Would really appreciate any feedback and/or suggestions. I would also appreciate if my picks managed plenty of easy holds & free points to keep my blood pressure down...unless of course I've taken the overs!

I'll keep a record of overall profit/loss excluding live parlays & will skim any daily profits over the 1.68 minimum to compensate for when I forget to factor in a Lisicki or Almagro choke. ;-)

Will follow later with 1st 2 parlays. After 1st look I'm leaning towards Flipkins 1.80 H2H v Goerges, Chardy/Lorenzi >22.5 @ 1.80 & Niemenen H2H + Gulbis H2H @ 1.70 atm!

[CaptainOmar111]

Flipkins bet is good because Goerges is chocked lately and lost against weaker players on Clay in her past 2 tournamnets on Clay !!!

Nieminen is good choice also but I do not like to risk money in 1st round on a guy played well in the past tournament !!!

Gulbis played badly yesterday so his bet is very risky !!!

Good Luck Man I hope you win ur challenge

[Hardcoar]

Welcome as a poster!

Waiting for odds on Flipkens to flip, but I like the play itself. Don't do capping bets (certain, few exceptions occur) because they're less profitable, and I'd stay the FK away from business man at those odds. Considering 'Dasco 1:st set.

Does anyone know how bad Donskoy is on clay, by the way?

[Stanford Wong]

Niemenen broken 2 out of first 3 service games --- fu*k him

[Stanford Wong]

I wish that f\*g would just quit before the sets over --- he's gone down o/15 - 0 / 30 --0/40 --- game last 2 donskoy services --- WTF

[Stanford Wong]

25 min -- 1-6. 1st set --- Finnish piece of garbage

[felix_felicus7]

Just saw that!

Glad I was too late with Niemenen huh!

Appreciate the input Omar & Hardcoar.

Also, didn't realise that the Flipkins/Gorgeous match is tomorrow.

So, going with the following -

1. Day One $8 - Chardy/Lozenzi >22.5 @ 1.80

2. Day One $8 - Mayer H2H 1.30 + Gulbis H2H 1.40 @ 1.81

[Hardcoar]

H2H by the way? Did you make that term up yourself? :P

I assume you mean ML (match line – to win the match).

[Stanford Wong]

Nieneman won I don't know how and Dvontsky going by his record on clay isn't a clay court player or shall I say not his favorite surface

[horja1]

25 min -- 1-6. 1st set --- Finnish piece of garbage

yeah ... what a pice of garbage ... winning your bet .... hmmm...

[felix_felicus7]

Had a brain explosion picking Lozenzi to save more than 2/7 break pts.

F.Mayer & The Gulbis performed well.

I feel that the best bet I missed out on was one of Hardcoar's - Lucic over Vesnina. Coulda had her +3.5 @ $2!

Posting today's parlays later. Leaning towards Pavlyuchenkova+1.5, Flipkins ML, Vinci + Dimitrov ML & Monaco + Seppi ML.

Would appreciate any suggestions... Everyone seems confident mad lefty Klizan will beat Montanes?

Anyone think Berlocq can get 6 games off Rafa? The +6.5 @ 365 is 2.00.

[therealJ$]

I have Pavly ML...GL to you

[CaptainOmar111]

I want to go with Vinci too , also Petra Kvitova but Vinci just came to Germany yesterday and played the day before in Davis cup .. should not her be tired ? Iam thinking to go with her but she did not get time to rest or practice .. same situation for Petra Kvitova !!

[felix_felicus7]

Day 2: Overall -$6.88

Going with with following today -

1. Day One $8 - Seppi 1.36, Monaco 1.22, Ferrer 1.02 MLs @ 1.69

2. Day Two $13.44 - Pavlyuchenkova +1.5 @1.80

[CaptainOmar111]

So you stayed away from FlipKins + Vinci + Petra ??

[felix_felicus7]

Yeah Omar, just worried about Vinci & Kvitova after that epic fed cup tie

[CaptainOmar111]

Yeah Omar, just worried about Vinci & Kvitova after that epic fed cup tie

Seems like I will do the same but I see Petra & Flipkins win

[felix_felicus7]

Day 3: Overall -$13.27

Back for more 3 selections. Heading off to work, so going early with -

1. Day One $8 - Tursunov+1.5 @ 1.72

2. Day Three $22.58 - Monaco 1.22, Ivanovic 1.50 MLs @ 1.83

Was very tempted with Hanescu+2.5 & Lucic+6.5 but here's hoping...

[CaptainOmar111]

Back for more 3 selections. Heading off to work, so going early with -

1. Day One $8 - Tursunov+1.5 @ 1.72

2. Day Three $22.58 - Monaco 1.22, Ivanovic 1.50 MLs @ 1.83

Was very tempted with Hanescu+2.5 & Lucic+6.5 but here's hoping...

So u risked $22,58 on Ivanovic ML beside Monaco ? ... Iam on Ana Ivanovic too

[felix_felicus7]

Fourth Day: Overall -$17.88

Tursunov really ran out of puff against Bellucci...nevermind. Hanescu+2.5 was the bet.

For today -

1. Day One Parlay $8 - The Gulbis/Raonic >23.5 @ 1.72

2. Day Four Parlay $37.93 - Schiavone 1.53 + Solar-Espinosa 1.25 MLs @ 1.91

Wanted to take Sharapova + Kerber but worried about both their opponents good form.

Good luck everyone

[CaptainOmar111]

Sharapova was not good yesterday ... Iam thinking to take Ivanovic +5,5 @1.55

Sharapova was going to lose but the luck saved her in 3rd set !!!

[felix_felicus7]

Yeah Omar, the maria/ana >21.5 games looks good! On a side note, I thought it was odd how Raonic is a fave to beat Gulbis yet Gulbis is a BIGGER fave than Milos to win the tourney?!

[felix_felicus7]

Oh well...Gulbis only manages 1 break pt up until the 2nd set breaker BUT somehow gets to set pt on his own serve...then loses 3 str8 for the match. Movin on...

[felix_felicus7]

Yuck! Soler's up game point 3-2 in the 3rd & right on cue loses 4 games str8! Typical WTA turn of events though eh? The overs was THE bet all along...

Time for a change in strategy as my picks aren't up to scratch atm.

Overall - -$33.88

Good luck All.

[CaptainOmar111]

Yuck! Soler's up game point 3-2 in the 3rd & right on cue loses 4 games str8! Typical WTA turn of events though eh? The overs was THE bet all along...

Time for a change in strategy as my picks aren't up to scratch atm.

Overall - -$33.88

Good luck All.

Try to take Money Lines only and stay away of Over/Under because it is coin-flip !!!

[Hardcoar]

To Felix: Stay away from game capping not because it's a coinflip (because it's really quite good if you know what you're doing), but rather because payouts are significantly lower, which means you can only lose by comparison.

[felix_felicus7]

I appreciate the advice Hardcoar. Always enjoy following your thread. Can u possibly elaborate a bit more on the downside of under/over betting & do u also avoid betting dogs with the + because u lose too much value?

[Hardcoar]

It's quite simple: Unders/overs and handicapping (game capping, as I generalize them both under; whether this is an – or the – actual term I have no idea) lines are offered with lower payouts (read: Worse odds) by bookmakers, in order for bookmakers to make more money at the cost of bettors.

I love betting dogs because finding value I believe is easier on them than favorites, but I avoid underdog handicaps for the same reason as described above. I by no means claim to be a great bettor, as I often stress, and the last couple of days have simply buried me.

Time to update my thread by the way. Thanks for reminding me. This should be fun...