Wawrinka at 150-1???

swissbank007 · 03-09-13, 09:31 AM

to talk simple he could have to beat Hewitt or Isner in 1/32....Federer in 1/8...Nadal in 1/4....Berdych or Delpotro in 1/2....and Djokovic in the final....i dont think he can do that!!impossible in my opinion!!!

beefcake · 03-09-13, 10:02 AM

Isner is shit last 12 months...Fed would be tough, but fed faces his nemesis in Benneateau,nadal is ripe for picking now you have to admit with injuries,bershit or delpo would be tough, but long way and upsets could happen..

swissbank007 · 03-09-13, 10:06 AM

u made some good points!!!!! if i had to pick an outsider i wd pick Berdych!!!

Hardcoar · 03-09-13, 10:19 AM

Depending on the odds I hope. <3

What you need to ask yourself is whether you think Wawrinka stands a chance greater than 1 in 151 to win. He might in my opinion.

Consider each way betting @ half odds if available.

Hardcoar · 03-09-13, 10:24 AM

You wanna be the winner? First you'll have to go through...

ODESNIK!

beefcake · 03-09-13, 10:40 AM

I mean ya Stan might need some help with upsets, usually that's what happens when big dogs make QF,Sf and Finals in tourneys.But hey that's OK.

swissbank007 · 03-09-13, 10:54 AM

i think if you want to gamble $100 for example on Wawrinka winning the tournament, i think i wd gamble those $100 in a big parlay with a big potential return!!!

Hardcoar · 03-09-13, 11:43 AM

wakefield23 · 03-09-13, 11:50 AM

You serious on that? no way.

beefcake · 03-09-13, 06:26 PM

Wawra survives...Playing hewitt instead of Isner is better!!

Come istomin, pull the upset!!

Also, ferrer going down helps too.Fed is the key, if he beats him he is going to the Semis..

davopnz · 03-09-13, 07:23 PM

waste of time

pazim · 03-10-13, 02:55 AM

Originally posted by beefcake

Wawra survives...Playing hewitt instead of Isner is better!!

Come istomin, pull the upset!!

Also, ferrer going down helps too.Fed is the key, if he beats him he is going to the Semis..

I would take him against Hewitt. Hewitt won today against Isner, but they both looked like crap.

beefcake · 03-12-13, 07:12 AM

Now the fun begins...+600 to open vs Fed and being bet down..

GoBlue77 · 03-12-13, 02:47 PM

Has he ever beat Fed? Isnt like 17 straight losses or something?

beefcake · 03-12-13, 08:23 PM

he beat him once, but fed Owns him..great time to break through though!

beefcake · 03-13-13, 08:54 PM

Well, cant say he did not have his chances..

Fukk face...

CaptainOmar111 · 03-13-13, 08:56 PM

Wawa deserved to win this game !!! I bet on Roger and won it but Wawa is the best tonight !!!

Hardcoar · 03-13-13, 09:00 PM

I think Federer deserved to win this game. Very rarely is the case other than such that the winner earned it less than its opponent.

That said, Wawrinka clearly wasn't far behind at all in this match. Very unfortunate on a good bet.

davopnz · 03-13-13, 09:19 PM

Originally posted by davopnz

waste of time

this

Hardcoar · 03-13-13, 09:35 PM

Wait, so...

By a 151:1 odds' probability bet's losing outcome you somehow believe that it supports your initital claim in any meaningful way?

ODDS, anyone!?

davopnz · 03-13-13, 09:50 PM

what do odds matter if your bet loses?

Ontnr · 03-13-13, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by davopnz

what do odds matter if your bet loses?

An "idiot" (not really, necessarily an idiot, but he shouldn't be gambling unless he has tons of money) who gets lucky on a "bad" (really just average) bet will still be an idiot who's down lifetime.

However, the guy who loses on a valuebet, will still have the ability to single out betting opportunities with expected profitability (in other words, a value bet, p of hitting > 1/dec odds) and thus will be able to actually make money long term and not just give it all away.

So.. one is a loser and the other is a winner. That matters to some people.

Hardcoar · 03-13-13, 10:21 PM

Originally posted by davopnz

this

Firstly, perhaps by "waste of time", you meant to say "very unlikely to actually occur". In that case, you're absolutely right. We can never know whether it was more or less likely than 1/151 to occur at the time the bet was placed, but my personal guess is that it was.

As for the difference between a good bet and a winning bet, you should learn betting and odds basics.