Tennis Value Betting - ATP

[orhane]

Hi everyone,

I like to share my picks with the forum from now on.
I will have a starting bank of 1000 units and will use Kelly Criterion to calculate my units to bet. Maximum bet size will be 100 units. If the bank doubles up, I will recalculate my units.
Selections will depend on the value I find. Sometimes there will be a lot of selections, somedays nothing at all.

Good luck to everyone and I hope you will share your ideas with me.

[orhane]

and i decided to share other picks as well, but they will get an extra side bank.
so it will be 2 banks:
1. Tennis ATP
2. Rest

[Hardcoar]

Looking forward to it.

[orhane]

1st Bet:

11,33 Units on Almagro to win vs Wawrinka @1,73

[orhane]

2nd Bet:
13,69 Units on Istomin to win vs Lopez @1.65

[Hardcoar]

Value in Almagro odds? Doubtedly...

[orhane]

I calculated 7% value. My magic number is 5%.

[Hardcoar]

Just out of curiosity, how do you calculate value? Simply set the odds where you think they should be and compare?

I personally found about @ 1.7 on Nico pretty fair, so not much value (in my personal opinion).

[orhane]

2 losses to start with.
I calculate recent form (last 6 months). And general record on surface.
In last step H2H record if available.
After that i calculate my own probabilities and compare them with the odds.

[Hardcoar]

Not giving up already, I hope!