Is 20:1 a fair/good price for Ferrer to win Franch Open??

gators0708 · 02-09-13, 09:30 PM

No way he wins if Rafa is healthy!

davopnz · 02-09-13, 10:12 PM

Rafa will crush him.

terpkeg · 02-09-13, 10:21 PM

So you guys think he should be what??? 100/1?

davopnz · 02-09-13, 10:22 PM

no 20-1 is a fair price because he's probably 3rd or 4th best player on clay but he will not beat nadal

MagicDiceFlow · 02-09-13, 11:30 PM

20-1 are decent odds for Ferrer......keep in mind, he doesnt have to win for you to make a nice profit on that. If he makes it to the semifinals, you can hedge your way out for a very nice profit.

davopnz · 02-10-13, 12:12 AM

Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow

20-1 are decent odds for Ferrer......keep in mind, he doesnt have to win for you to make a nice profit on that. If he makes it to the semifinals, you can hedge your way out for a very nice profit.

i doubt it, he would likely have joker in the semi...

Cross · 02-10-13, 12:44 AM

Ferrer will maybe make semis, if he gets a good draw. 0 chance he wins, just ask him!

beefcake · 02-10-13, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow

20-1 are decent odds for Ferrer......keep in mind, he doesnt have to win for you to make a nice profit on that. If he makes it to the semifinals, you can hedge your way out for a very nice profit.

THIS...Spot on..20-1 is good value with a hedge or live bet in a breaker or if Ferrer wins a set..

terpkeg · 02-10-13, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by beefcake

THIS...Spot on..20-1 is good value with a hedge or live bet in a breaker or if Ferrer wins a set..

Im trying to determine if the first profitable hedge would be live bet semi's. If the big dogs pull through and Ferrer is looking at Djokovic, Nadal in the final two rounds, what is the line? Obviously too many factors in play to know, but if he is -500/+400in the semi's, your hedge is pretty much shot. What are you going to hedge for .5 unit? If so, might as well just play him to win every round and roll over winnings until he gets to semi's.

Only way 20/1 seems profitable is if their is an upset and draw works out in his favor. This play perked my interest because of the Nadal injury. Hard to know where he will be in May, but he does not look great this week. If Ferrer has any chance to win a slam, this is it. I think he can push Djokovic into the 5th on the clay.

terpkeg · 02-10-13, 09:14 AM

I have always wondered how they come up with the draw in tennis. Why does it not line up evenly? Example:

4th Round: 1 v 16, 8 v. 9, 4 v 13, 5 v 12 etc.
QF: 1 v 8, 4 v 5, 3 v 6, 2 v. 7
etc....

I have never figured out why the 1 seed is playing the 5 seed in the QF's in some of these tournaments.

freshguy222 · 02-10-13, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by terpkeg

Im trying to determine if the first profitable hedge would be live bet semi's. If the big dogs pull through and Ferrer is looking at Djokovic, Nadal in the final two rounds, what is the line? Obviously too many factors in play to know, but if he is -500/+400in the semi's, your hedge is pretty much shot. What are you going to hedge for .5 unit? If so, might as well just play him to win every round and roll over winnings until he gets to semi's.

Only way 20/1 seems profitable is if their is an upset and draw works out in his favor. This play perked my interest because of the Nadal injury. Hard to know where he will be in May, but he does not look great this week. If Ferrer has any chance to win a slam, this is it. I think he can push Djokovic into the 5th on the clay.

you have obviously not seen the australian open match between the two, clay or not, ferrer does not have the weapons to beat the djoker. ferrer's movement is his weapon but djoker takes this one away by probably being the best mover on a tennis court right now, rafa when healthy is in the same category but noone else.

terpkeg · 02-10-13, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by freshguy222

you have obviously not seen the australian open match between the two, clay or not, ferrer does not have the weapons to beat the djoker. ferrer's movement is his weapon but djoker takes this one away by probably being the best mover on a tennis court right now, rafa when healthy is in the same category but noone else.

I did and I saw the us open match as well. I just feel like there is a better chance that joker gets pushed on the clay and becomes vulnerable.

I'm pretty much committed to this baring injury before French. Just wondering if 20:1 is garbage. Kind of think playing match to match and rolling winning over would be more lucrative.

If Ferrer ever wins a GS this is the time. Need to consider Murray becoming more of a threat to win the French in the next 5 years as well.