Pattaya Final Lisicki / Kirilenko

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  • El Sol
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 05-17-08
    • 876

    #1
    Pattaya Final Lisicki / Kirilenko
    Kirilenko has been in control, mentally stable and consistent through out this tournament while Lisicki wins were all in error filled, sloppy games versus inferior players. Looking at stats and numbers, you can make a claim this should be a close match, and the odds somewhat reflect that making Kirilenko, in my opinion a mild Favorite, at -200. But I have additional information that supports my assessment that she should be closer to -500.

    Both players have been able to handle the heat and humidity, however it appears it has taken Lisicki a set to warm up. Versus the competition she was facing, this didn't hurt her. But it must be noted that she has consistently fell behind in all her first sets only to be gifted the breaks back through horrendous play by her opponents. She will get no such gifts with Kirilenko.

    I certainly don't put Kirilenko in the upper echelon of tennis competition, but she is without question the most consistent player in this tournament and also has faced adversity playing in form competitors.

    Based on the my belief that Lisicki has needed the first set in the last three matches to get warmed up, Im pretty confident at laying the -170 to win two units on Kirilenko to win the first set. Lisicki has played better in her second sets so it is possible this could go to a third. But, personally, I have Kiri dominating her through out so Im comfortable playing 2 - 0 at +120 risking an additional unit.

    Kirilenko First set at -170

    or

    -200 for the match

    or

    to win 2 - 0 at +120

    all good bets depending on your bankroll and risk tolerance

    Good luck
  • skidrow
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 04-16-10
    • 539

    #2
    Originally posted by El Sol
    Kirilenko has been in control, mentally stable and consistent through out this tournament while Lisicki wins were all in error filled, sloppy games versus inferior players. Looking at stats and numbers, you can make a claim this should be a close match, and the odds somewhat reflect that making Kirilenko, in my opinion a mild Favorite, at -200. But I have additional information that supports my assessment that she should be closer to -500.

    Both players have been able to handle the heat and humidity, however it appears it has taken Lisicki a set to warm up. Versus the competition she was facing, this didn't hurt her. But it must be noted that she has consistently fell behind in all her first sets only to be gifted the breaks back through horrendous play by her opponents. She will get no such gifts with Kirilenko.

    I certainly don't put Kirilenko in the upper echelon of tennis competition, but she is without question the most consistent player in this tournament and also has faced adversity playing in form competitors.

    Based on the my belief that Lisicki has needed the first set in the last three matches to get warmed up, Im pretty confident at laying the -170 to win two units on Kirilenko to win the first set. Lisicki has played better in her second sets so it is possible this could go to a third. But, personally, I have Kiri dominating her through out so Im comfortable playing 2 - 0 at +120 risking an additional unit.

    Kirilenko First set at -170

    or

    -200 for the match

    or

    to win 2 - 0 at +120

    all good bets depending on your bankroll and risk tolerance

    Good luck
    i just saw the moneyline drop to -157 ...what does this reflect more...sharp, or last minute betters money coming in?
    Comment
    • gaebiskon
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 03-10-12
      • 869

      #3
      if you can place in-play bets, then wait for better odds on kirilenko
      kirilenko will be too consistent for inconsistent sabine
      Comment
      • skidrow
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 04-16-10
        • 539

        #4
        i went with EL SoLs write up and plays. good match, im surprised line dropped even lower. back to watching. cheers!
        Comment
        • El Sol
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 05-17-08
          • 876

          #5
          Im in US so I dont have live betting, I wish I did
          Comment
          • El Sol
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 05-17-08
            • 876

            #6
            Lisi playing a little better than I predicted
            Comment
            • MagicDiceFlow
              SBR MVP
              • 01-15-12
              • 4585

              #7
              Kirilenko is the better more balanced player no doubt. However, what always keeps Lisicki in the match is her strong serving. It bails her out numerous times from getting broken.

              I didn't bet on this match but good luck to you guys with Kirilenko.
              Comment
              • skidrow
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 04-16-10
                • 539

                #8
                Originally posted by El Sol
                Lisi playing a little better than I predicted
                nah, you were right in your write up lisi i still think is lucky...kiri seems to be the all round better player. nice serve too. watching a good match..lets see her pull away now
                Comment
                • skidrow
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 04-16-10
                  • 539

                  #9
                  now shes just beating her self. too much power etc
                  Comment
                  • skidrow
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 04-16-10
                    • 539

                    #10
                    come on now baby!!! lets do it!!!!
                    Comment
                    • Tmuston Beltics
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-14-13
                      • 1253

                      #11
                      K there goes my 2-0 on Kirilenko..
                      Comment
                      • nocturnal012
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 09-25-11
                        • 893

                        #12
                        Comment
                        • MagicDiceFlow
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-15-12
                          • 4585

                          #13
                          Kirilenko's game excels at keeping the balls in play and breaking her opponents serve. When Lisicki's serving this well, its gonna be tough for Kirilenko to get looks at second serves. Still got a long way to go and I've seen Kirilenko come back many times down a set.......but it's gonna be tough if Lisicki keeps pounding those first serves.
                          Comment
                          • gaebiskon
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 03-10-12
                            • 869

                            #14
                            it isn't over yet guise
                            unless she's really on, like once or twice a year, sabine can't keep this level of play for much longer
                            Comment
                            • ohumad
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-19-12
                              • 2298

                              #15
                              Double or nothing let's go Kirilenko!
                              Comment
                              • ThaTopMoron
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 04-30-10
                                • 27020

                                #16
                                Kirilenko... wow... took her down a set and almost down 0-2 second set b4 she finally got going??? wtf

                                i laid 2.15 units on this girls ML for a unit
                                Comment
                                • gaebiskon
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 03-10-12
                                  • 869

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by ThaTopMoron
                                  Kirilenko... wow... took her down a set and almost down 0-2 second set b4 she finally got going??? wtf

                                  i laid 2.15 units on this girls ML for a unit
                                  to sabine's credit, she really played solid first set and this is nothing special in women's tennis, much worse happen on a regular basis
                                  Comment
                                  • ThaTopMoron
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 04-30-10
                                    • 27020

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by gaebiskon
                                    to sabine's credit, she really played solid first set and this is nothing special in women's tennis, much worse happen on a regular basis
                                    yeah i know, I am a tennis newb... somehow I cashed pretty good betting on the A.Open but that was mainly sticking to the men

                                    if i hadn't done well with the A.Open I wouldn't be placing bets on this random wta event with players I know nothing about... just a degenerate late night bet to start off Super Bowl Sunday
                                    Comment
                                    • ohumad
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-19-12
                                      • 2298

                                      #19
                                      Comment
                                      • ThaTopMoron
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 04-30-10
                                        • 27020

                                        #20
                                        wtf is this bitch doing
                                        Comment
                                        • ohumad
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-19-12
                                          • 2298

                                          #21
                                          Are you kidding me holy crap! Hit it IN! IN!
                                          Comment
                                          • gaebiskon
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 03-10-12
                                            • 869

                                            #22
                                            kirilenko choking hard
                                            Comment
                                            • ThaTopMoron
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 04-30-10
                                              • 27020

                                              #23
                                              stupid hoe ill slap the shit outta this bitch, probably thinking

                                              "I'm allowed to choke cause I'm not fugly"
                                              Comment
                                              • ohumad
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-19-12
                                                • 2298

                                                #24
                                                K 5 match points here don't get too excited
                                                Comment
                                                • ThaTopMoron
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 04-30-10
                                                  • 27020

                                                  #25
                                                  wtf... i went from early on thinking my bet was toast... to oh she turned it around completely and is in cruise control... to omg this girl is choking like no other... then she puts herself in position with her back against the wall then she gets it back and takes over in tie break pts

                                                  just another dumb bitch, but hell cashed a unit on her
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ohumad
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-19-12
                                                    • 2298

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by ThaTopMoron
                                                    wtf... i went from early on thinking my bet was toast... to oh she turned it around completely and is in cruise control... to omg this girl is choking like no other... then she puts herself in position with her back against the wall then she gets it back and takes over in tie break pts

                                                    just another dumb bitch, but hell cashed a unit on her
                                                    NBA doesn't have shit on the WTA: Where amazing happens.
                                                    Comment
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