Davis Cup: I SPY!

[EaglesPhan36]

First Davis Cup rubbers of 2013. May add more single plays, but this is my main futures play + the early singles plays I liked best.

Germany to Advance +155
Outdoor clay for the Argentina-Germany clash. The Argies are not sending out a team at full strength. No Del Potro. Monaco was not 100% at the Aussie Open with a continued problem with a hand issue. Nalbandian has focused on getting healthy for this meeting, but he's yet to prove that. He starts off playing doubles, but likely could be inserted in singles play if needed on the back end. Berlocq opens against Kohlschreiber in singles. Kohlschreiber isn't quite at home on clay, but he is accomplished enough where he should be able to complete against Berlocq who also has some fitness questions. Monaco and Florian Mayer in the 2nd singles rubber. Monaco is definitely the bigger clay talent, but Mayer has had his number [5-1] on all surfaces. Even with his form iffy, Mayer should be able to make this rubber competitive. Doubles will feature Kas-Kohlschreiber against Nalbandian-Zeballos. Seems like a toss-up. The return singles rubbers would see Monaco against Kohlschreiber and Berlocq against Mayer. The questionable status of some of the Argentinian players should give Germany hope. If they can handle the hostile environment, they have the players to pull off the upset.

February 1st
Tsonga-Weintraub Under 29 [-105]
Goffin -165

[oppore]

hello.
I'm newbie here. Which bet site do you use?
There is no "Under 29" bet in Gamebookers.

[riffraff24]

GL EP! Lets get these!

[GirlCanCapToo]

I'm also on Germany. Canada also seems like a good play at -170. Raonic should get 2 pts easily on the fast indoor courts vs the clay courters. Never really thought Granollers and Lopez were that good of a doubles team on fast surfaces, despite their ranking - just don't think their serves are big enough. Dancevic should be able to win 1/2 as well.

[Tmuston Beltics]

hello.
I'm newbie here. Which bet site do you use?
There is no "Under 29" bet in Gamebookers.

5dimes.

[STAY STRONG]

Lets cash some tickets.

[shari91]

I'm also on Germany. Canada also seems like a good play at -170. Raonic should get 2 pts easily on the fast indoor courts vs the clay courters. Never really thought Granollers and Lopez were that good of a doubles team on fast surfaces, despite their ranking - just don't think their serves are big enough. Dancevic should be able to win 1/2 as well.

I was telling EP earlier that I grabbed Canada before the price move but I'd be pretty hesitant about making that bet now. Even if Pospisil wasn't just recovering from mono, I wouldn't give them a great shot at winning the doubles. And I'd be shocked if Dancevic gets by Granny. Frank hasn't even played a 5-setter since last year's DC. So then you're potentially left laying the entire chalky bet on Dancevic vs Ramos when he'll be the dog for match betting. Ramos is a clay courter obviously but when you compare their results on the surface and quality of competition within the past year + Dancevic's lack of 5 set play, it's a pretty brave bet to take Frank at -170 or less. Just my opinion of course and I hope Canada wins no matter how they get it done.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I did like Canada, but the price drifted way out to -190 making it unplayable to me. Like Shari, I am a little hesitant to back a team that is banking on a young player like Raonic to be the leader as well, but Spain without their big boys on a hard surface are ripe for the taking still IMO. All these lines are at 5Dimes.

[Tmuston Beltics]

Germany at +155 now. Hmm.. Might give it a shot.

[shari91]

Yeah I did like Canada, but the price drifted way out to -190 making it unplayable to me. Like Shari, I am a little hesitant to back a team that is banking on a young player like Raonic to be the leader as well, but Spain without their big boys on a hard surface are ripe for the taking still IMO. All these lines are at 5Dimes.

I keep thinking about this since we talked and if I didn't already have my bet in I think I'd put a bit on Spain. Like seriously, Raonic can only get them 2pts. And then what? One guy who's recovering from the smooching disease and hasn't won a match since October, old man Nestor who admits he's been playing like whoreshit and Dancevic who isn't even a half loaded gun. The plus side obviously is that Canada's at home but no way Spain should be +137. Then again maybe I'll be wrong and Canada will come out and smoke them.

[EaglesPhan36]

OPEN PARLAY [7 slots]
Seppi -700
Querrey -445
Gasquet -1700
Raonic -1500

[EaglesPhan36]

I keep thinking about this since we talked and if I didn't already have my bet in I think I'd put a bit on Spain. Like seriously, Raonic can only get them 2pts. And then what? One guy who's recovering from the smooching disease and hasn't won a match since October, old man Nestor who admits he's been playing like whoreshit and Dancevic who isn't even a half loaded gun. The plus side obviously is that Canada's at home but no way Spain should be +137. Then again maybe I'll be wrong and Canada will come out and smoke them.

I just wonder how inspired Spain is going to be though without any of their emotional leaders involved or even 2nd tier players, seems like this is the "C" team. If even someone like Almagro was there, I'd go for Spain - but Granollers & Ramos do not inspire confidence, although both are capable.

[philippe61]

hey im just making sure but it is 5 sets in the davis cup right

[EaglesPhan36]

Yes. Best of 5.

[shari91]

I just wonder how inspired Spain is going to be though without any of their emotional leaders involved or even 2nd tier players, seems like this is the "C" team. If even someone like Almagro was there, I'd go for Spain - but Granollers & Ramos do not inspire confidence, although both are capable.

Yeah maybe bettors are banking on the fact that these guys definitely weren't Spain's first choice. I've followed the guys in your open parlay for -190. I'll just sit back now and wait for Querrey to inevitably f me over the first time I dare to bet him in close to 2yrs.

[EaglesPhan36]

Lorenzi in for Fognini against Cilic in the Italy-Croatia opener.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah maybe bettors are banking on the fact that these guys definitely weren't Spain's first choice. I've followed the guys in your open parlay for -190. I'll just sit back now and wait for Querrey to inevitably f me over the first time I dare to bet him in close to 2yrs.

If he loses to Bellucci in the US, he oughta be shipped out to Antarctica.

[shari91]

If he loses to Bellucci in the US, he oughta be shipped out to Antarctica.

I swear it'll be one of the least shocking losses of my life if it happens. Last time I bet him TennisBabe was still around if you can even remember that far back.

[EaglesPhan36]

Oh Lord, forgot about that person.

[EaglesPhan36]

Tsonga you f-stick. Crusing to a straight sets win and probable under and he gets broken by Weintraub.

And broken again. Thanks for that assclown.

[EaglesPhan36]

BTW, if you're mobile ... Davis Cup has a decent APP to download for free to track scores.

[EaglesPhan36]

Don't know that Mayer is good enough to finish, but Monaco's injury problems this year make this worth a shot to me. Monaco had the hand issue heading into the Australian Open and suffered a thigh problem there as well. Been time to recover since, but not sure how well training, etc. has gone for him. May have massive pressure on him as well if Berlocq loses because Argentina will need a win to stay in the tie.

Mayer +195 *0.5 unit

[shari91]

Don't know that Mayer is good enough to finish, but Monaco's injury problems this year make this worth a shot to me. Monaco had the hand issue heading into the Australian Open and suffered a thigh problem there as well. Been time to recover since, but not sure how well training, etc. has gone for him. May have massive pressure on him as well if Berlocq loses because Argentina will need a win to stay in the tie.

Mayer +195 *0.5 unit

Apparently Monaco posted on his fb account that he's been hardcore training for the DC since he got knocked out here. I grabbed that from TI though and can't be arsed translating his page from Spanish. *wait... he's done it for us https://www.facebook.com/juanmonacoofficial If he doesn't win this match I'm tossing him into the no flyzone bin for a long while after all this hype.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I read around and all the talk was about focusing on the DC, etc. He might absolutely smoke Mayer, but still worth a small risk to try. Mayer of course being one of the biggest flakes in the game where he could beat anyone on any given day or lose 6-1, 6-1, 6-1.

[EaglesPhan36]

I knew this Goffin match was going to shit when he blew that 3rd set. Eeesh. That guy is going on my black list if he blows a 2-0 lead on home soil to f-ing Troicki.

[shari91]

Yeah I read around and all the talk was about focusing on the DC, etc. He might absolutely smoke Mayer, but still worth a small risk to try. Mayer of course being one of the biggest flakes in the game where he could beat anyone on any given day or lose 6-1, 6-1, 6-1.

Oh I'd definitely put cash on Mayer if anything in this one. I'm just more curious as to what all this yapping actually equates to at home. If he can't get it done I can at least forget about betting on him anytime soon.

[Optional]

I dunno why there is never any love for Berlocq around here. If nothing else he's as reliable as hell and plays out a match with the same heart Ferrer puts in to the last point.

[EaglesPhan36]

Goffin is choking quite nicely. Fought back from an early break to even it up in the 4th and has promptly given it back. I think Troicki is going to destroy him in the 5th and I won't be backing that slob again for a long f-ing time.

[shari91]

I dunno why there is never any love for Berlocq around here. If nothing else he's as reliable as hell and plays out a match with the same heart Ferrer puts in to the last point.

I have a lot of love for him when the actual clay season starts. Not yet though.

[EaglesPhan36]

For shits & giggles, throwing $5 on Rochus @ +3250 and taking the Over 26.5 between Rochus-Djokovic. Djokovic has been very outspoken about court conditions in Belgium and has only had one practice session on the surface from what I have read. Don't think there's any chance Rochus cashes unless Djokovic quits the rubber because he doesn't want to injure himself. If he does play out the match, just a little feeling that the conditions could let Rochus win a few more games than expect perhaps. My angle, suck it.

[EaglesPhan36]

What a non-shocker that Goffin inevitably finished choking. Ya f-ing poof. Done with that dude for a long time.

So that's two craptacular picks in the shitter this morning.

[Tmuston Beltics]

Hope Kohlschreiber doesn't melt now after that situation.. The point was given to Berlocq even tho it was out by like 20cm. He lost his serve 0-40 after that.

[riffraff24]

Stupid Goffin...what a scrub!

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah this has the makings of a nice blood bath.

[riffraff24]

Hey EP - excuse my ignorance...but what needs to happen for Germany to advance? best of how many matches?