Li na +110.........

El Sol · 01-25-13, 10:27 PM

Hijacking your thread a little but I'm coming out in support, but here's my take:

This match is one where I need to be careful. I am self admitting that I am a Li Na fan coinciding with that I am also an Azarenka detractor. So its very easy for me to look for reasons to pick Na and glaze over the pros for Aza. Ive simulated this match over and over and talent wise it comes out a wash for me. I have Aza getting the bulk of her points on serve and improved forehand, and Na winning hers on baseline volleys and strong passing shots.

Therefore, I see this coming down to a mental grind. Who's going to spaz out first. Both have shown a tendency to break down emotionally. Theres been a lot of buzz about Aza's medical controversy and the Aussies are a rowdy bunch. I suspect the crowd to be pulling for Na. Na also has dropped her husband as coach and word on the street is that Rodriguez has quieted her temper. If Li Na holds it together, her strength and conditioning will bring it home. If she drops her mental guard once, its over, Aza will pounce.

If this match was truly 50/50, then the obvious value is on Li at +120. Adding to this line of thought is Li Na's new found conditioning, strength training and don't under estimate that she dropped her husband from the fray. This has me upping the perceived edge to a 53% chance of winning.

Li NA at +120

Good luck all

Catchn_Picks · 01-25-13, 10:36 PM

Well fortunately for Li Na they do not give pretty points out during the match. Other than that...man she was sharp in her last match versus Shara. Low to the ground with quick feet and solid strikes. She out volleyed Shara and I never thought that would happen.

I also saw Aza really become unglued when something goes wrong. She is a hot head and that means a mini meltdown tomorrow is coming at some point. Li is going to get her points.

I agree with you all...Li Na is the women's champ.

face · 01-25-13, 11:00 PM

hope you saw it

matt1216 · 01-25-13, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by El Sol

Hijacking your thread a little but I'm coming out in support, but here's my take:

This match is one where I need to be careful. I am self admitting that I am a Li Na fan coinciding with that I am also an Azarenka detractor. So its very easy for me to look for reasons to pick Na and glaze over the pros for Aza. Ive simulated this match over and over and talent wise it comes out a wash for me. I have Aza getting the bulk of her points on serve and improved forehand, and Na winning hers on baseline volleys and strong passing shots.

Therefore, I see this coming down to a mental grind. Who's going to spaz out first. Both have shown a tendency to break down emotionally. Theres been a lot of buzz about Aza's medical controversy and the Aussies are a rowdy bunch. I suspect the crowd to be pulling for Na. Na also has dropped her husband as coach and word on the street is that Rodriguez has quieted her temper. If Li Na holds it together, her strength and conditioning will bring it home. If she drops her mental guard once, its over, Aza will pounce.

If this match was truly 50/50, then the obvious value is on Li at +120. Adding to this line of thought is Li Na's new found conditioning, strength training and don't under estimate that she dropped her husband from the fray. This has me upping the perceived edge to a 53% chance of winning.

Li NA at +120

Good luck all

"Na also has dropped her husband as coach and word on the street is that Rodriguez has quieted her temper." her onditioning is much better than azarenkas as well. I believe she will frustrate her. Li Na deserves it, she had the WAYYYYYY harder route! and breezed thru.
Azarenka was lucky thee wasnt a healthy Serena coming up to face her last match.

Bol!
"

Thanks for the input guys!! this is huge^^^^^^^^^

Hangoverblack · 01-26-13, 01:20 AM

WagerType: Date: Team: Risking / To Win Ticket#:
Straight Jan 26 MU [4762] N LI +115 (V AZARENKA vrs N LI) 2266.00 USD / 2605.00 USD 25978904

Azarenka has heard all the wrong things to prepare mentally now for two days. When the crowd sides with Li it will be too much. I will take the ++ odds.

Li gets it done.

ohumad · 01-26-13, 01:41 AM

Originally posted by Hangoverblack

WagerType: Date: Team: Risking / To Win Ticket#:
Straight Jan 26 MU [4762] N LI +115 (V AZARENKA vrs N LI) 2266.00 USD / 2605.00 USD 25978904

Azarenka has heard all the wrong things to prepare mentally now for two days. When the crowd sides with Li it will be too much. I will take the ++ odds.

Li gets it done.

Two more hours the anticipation must be killing you.

Hangoverblack · 01-26-13, 01:47 AM

I liken Azarenka's mindset to something out of a final destination sequel. After she blew those five match points against the serena slayer, I think she realized that no matter what she did from that point forward, she would not have inwardly earned her spot in the Grand Slam final. I think mentally she feels undeserving. The mind is very powerful, and when you start to talk nerves and panic attacks I believe she feels there is something artificial and paper thin internally regarding her accomplishments at this tournament.

Is she programmed to fail today? She is the defending champ, and ranked #1, and has dominated Li recently.

-135? I guess that line fits such a fun story like mine.

matt1216 · 01-26-13, 02:34 AM

well, im rootin for the both of us man...... thats a big bet buddy! i did some side bets just incase The matchh go south For LI. I really think she has a solid chance tho. AZ is too much of a flake.

OhMyEli · 01-26-13, 02:53 AM

Originally posted by Hangoverblack

I liken Azarenka's mindset to something out of a final destination sequel. After she blew those five match points against the serena slayer, I think she realized that no matter what she did from that point forward, she would not have inwardly earned her spot in the Grand Slam final. I think mentally she feels undeserving. The mind is very powerful, and when you start to talk nerves and panic attacks I believe she feels there is something artificial and paper thin internally regarding her accomplishments at this tournament.

Is she programmed to fail today? She is the defending champ, and ranked #1, and has dominated Li recently.

-135? I guess that line fits such a fun story like mine.

Sorry guy, you may be an excellent therapist, but terrible capper if you are honestly trying to read into peoples mindset.........

nikossf · 01-26-13, 02:59 AM

gl everyone.. 30 mins left!!

EmpireMaker · 01-26-13, 03:30 AM

I'm with you Li Na all the way !!!!

gregm · 01-26-13, 03:41 AM

I just stayed up to see where this line would end up

This is brutal staying up this late, I live in the wrong hemisphere. Should be a great match, I get to see it on tivo in the morning

EmpireMaker · 01-26-13, 03:43 AM

I hear you Greg its 3:43 am here, I am debating whether to watch this live or not.

MUHerd37 · 01-26-13, 03:49 AM

Come on Li Na!

EmpireMaker · 01-26-13, 03:52 AM

Li Na is making Azarenka run this is great !!!

steviec27 · 01-26-13, 03:55 AM

Wish I had seen this thread before betting on aza.
Some good insights gents.

EmpireMaker · 01-26-13, 03:59 AM

Let the blowout begin !!!!!

Crate Mayne · 01-26-13, 04:02 AM

Making a killing on these live plays.. Let's go Li Na!

MUHerd37 · 01-26-13, 04:30 AM

1st set to Li Na!!!

Sharp Snake · 01-26-13, 04:58 AM

Down goes Li Na. Left ankle sprain. Looked bad at first but she should continue after the timeout.

LVHerbie · 01-26-13, 05:04 AM

Ouch... Looked good finish that set though...

MUHerd37 · 01-26-13, 06:20 AM

Li Na about to be taken out.

MagicDiceFlow · 01-26-13, 06:35 AM

Li Na's unforced errors did her in.....more than double vs Azarenka tonight.

UNFORCED ERRORS :

Azarenka 28
Li Na 57

LVHerbie · 01-26-13, 07:02 AM

Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow

Li Na's unforced errors did her in.....more than double vs Azarenka tonight.

UNFORCED ERRORS :

Azarenka 28
Li Na 57

Kindof a byproduct of the way she was playing (very aggressive) as Li had twice as many winners (36 to 18) as Azarenka... Seemed like a solid strategy giving who she was playing that might have been successful if not for having to play through in match injuries.