Betting qualifiers for ATP 250 futures..

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  • beefcake
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-26-09
    • 14029

    #1
    Betting qualifiers for ATP 250 futures..
    Before you call me a nutjob here me out.I think with many players now more concerned with managing their schedule to avoid burnout and injury there is going to be more opportunities for qualies to make deep runs in the 250's. Obviously I would need my head examined to bet any futures on qualies in majors with 16 of em in each and they will never even come close.1000's I dont think either and even with Janowiczs run in Paris it was a anomaly.But in 250s especially last year we had Nieminen win and other players make runs to the SF or finals.I just think that after the top 10 or so players that the talent level gap is not that large and as you well know motivation for players in these 32 main draws where their is no advantage of having a bye and usually all the QF after having to play 3 days in a row are given 1-2 rest days before playing players that sometimes arrive to the tourney late or having to deal with other factors.Many times you can get futures prices around 50-1 and higher and once they win 2-3 matches and other top seeds have gone out their are many opps to hedge.Never more than 4 QF in one tourney, so I think you could keep your future bets small and wait until Friday or Saturday to see how they are doing. I have no stats to back up if QF are making deeper runs than in previous years, this is just a hunch.

    All of these bets would of course go through 5 dimes as they are the only book that has futures on every mens tourney.

    Please let me know what you think...
  • Optional
    Administrator
    • 06-10-10
    • 61611

    #2
    .
    Comment
    • Optional
      Administrator
      • 06-10-10
      • 61611

      #3
      I like the idea. (and like how you often post left of centre ideas)

      But might be safer to take them as first round winners and not worry about them having to go deep?
      .
      Comment
      • beefcake
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-26-09
        • 14029

        #4
        These are the QF stats from 2012:

        7 finals made..6/7 were in 250's..only one being Janowicz in Paris..

        29 Quarterfinals made..26 in 250's

        12 SF made/10 in 250

        7 finals made..6 in 250's

        1 winner..Nieminen..

        40 ATP 250's...so one out of every 4 tourneys a Qualie made a Semi...

        Food for thought..
        Comment
        • beefcake
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-26-09
          • 14029

          #5
          Well in about 75% of these qualies that made the Quarters or farther, they were all seeded in the qualifying round..Maybe just bet futures on who was seeded who in turn makes it to the main draw..This would be a further filter to weed out losing bets..Yeah and then I could then filter out players who sleep on their back and fart only after midnight on match days....

          Still might track em for shits this year so see Hypothetically how I would do...AKA..Air bets..
          Comment
          • beefcake
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-26-09
            • 14029

            #6
            Ok, futures are out with the Qualies included now for Brisbane.I will post the odds for all but will only be tracking the players that were seeded.

            Looks like Harrison if anyone is going to make a run here, its him.Best case is two win 2 matches and have Murray not give a shit and lose, then it all opens up.Buts that's what has to happen basically in almost every 250 tourney, 2-3 seeded players come in not giving a shit and a qualie gets hot or catches some breaks.

            Millman +50000(whatever)
            Kudla +15000
            Levine +10000..1 unit
            Harrison +7500..1 unit..




            Hope to see Chennai and Doha up later tonight..
            Comment
            • beefcake
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-26-09
              • 14029

              #7
              Fukk it, I will TRY to track Qualies ATS and $$ line in 250's. Not guaranteeing anything as my time will be limited this year. Mind you only 250's here,the 500/1000 and Majors will be a nice break.Once again futures for only seeded qualies. All of em will be 1 unit with appropriate juice..Of course lines may vary depending what time I get them.But all will be from 5 dimes..

              Millman -140..
              -2 -110

              Levine -135
              -1.5 -118

              Kudla +160
              +3 -105

              Harrison -185
              -2.5 -128
              Comment
              • Optional
                Administrator
                • 06-10-10
                • 61611

                #8
                Just announced Millman gets wildcard spot for Aussie Open. (and Barty)
                .
                Comment
                • beefcake
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-26-09
                  • 14029

                  #9
                  Nice he deserves it!

                  Chennai..

                  Futures..

                  Bemelmans +6600..1 unit..
                  Stebe +10000..1 unit
                  Ram..+15000..1 unit..

                  ​Amritaj +20000
                  Comment
                  • beefcake
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-26-09
                    • 14029

                    #10
                    Chennai Ml and Spreads

                    Bemelmans -130
                    -1.5 -110

                    Stebe..+173
                    + 3 -105

                    Ram +130
                    +2 -110

                    Amritraj +180
                    +3.5 -120
                    Comment
                    • beefcake
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-26-09
                      • 14029

                      #11
                      No futures..did not stay up to see them posted..too late now


                      Qualies...

                      From 5 dimes.

                      Brown +6 -115
                      +1400

                      Brands +3.5 -125
                      +168

                      Henrych +5 +100
                      +525

                      Kamke -5 -122
                      -590
                      Comment
                      • beefcake
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-26-09
                        • 14029

                        #12
                        Stats after the first round

                        ATS 7-4-1 +2.34

                        ML 5-7 -1.29
                        Comment
                        • beefcake
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-26-09
                          • 14029

                          #13
                          Futures..Doha

                          Kamke +8000
                          Brands +8000..went back to original opening odds to get this price..Not betting just tracking..
                          Comment
                          • beefcake
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-26-09
                            • 14029

                            #14
                            Did not have time to post today as I was shit deep in my kids diapers all morning.hey more important things to do than entertain your fukks on here..LOL..

                            Bit here here is how the remaining qualies did today...with once again vs Money line and Spreads and up to date totals after..

                            Armritraj +250..Loss
                            +3.5 +110..Win

                            Stebe...+360 ..Loss
                            +4..-120..loss

                            Brands -909..Win
                            -5.5 -108..Loss

                            Kamke +1000..loss
                            +5.5 -101..loss

                            Ml 1-4..-3.00
                            ATS 1-3..-2.19

                            Totals ML 6-10 -4.29
                            ATS 8-7-1 +0.15

                            First rounds..7-4-1 +2.34
                            ML 5-7 -1.29

                            Second rounds..Ml 1-4 -3.00
                            ATS 1-3 -2.19

                            1 Future still alive of seeded Qualie..BRANDS at 80-1. So far 0-6 -6.00..brands pending..
                            Comment
                            • beefcake
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-26-09
                              • 14029

                              #15
                              Brands +4 -110
                              +285..
                              Comment
                              • beefcake
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-26-09
                                • 14029

                                #16
                                Well forgot Millman, who covered..

                                Brands at 80-1 is still alive!!! hedge city..

                                Millman was +1600 ML..Loss
                                ATS..+6..Push..

                                Totals ATS 9-7-2 +1.15
                                Brands won on the ML so..
                                ML 7-11 -2.44

                                Gotta figure up a way to hedge an 80-1 future!!
                                Comment
                                • Optional
                                  Administrator
                                  • 06-10-10
                                  • 61611

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by beefcake
                                  Well forgot Millman, who covered..

                                  Brands at 80-1 is still alive!!! hedge city..

                                  Millman was +1600 ML..Loss
                                  ATS..+6..Push..

                                  Totals ATS 9-7-2 +1.15
                                  Brands won on the ML so..
                                  ML 7-11 -2.44

                                  Gotta figure up a way to hedge an 80-1 future!!
                                  1/3 of the payout on each of the next 3 rounds?
                                  .
                                  Comment
                                  • beefcake
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-26-09
                                    • 14029

                                    #18
                                    Maybe..gas can is -450..better yet to bet Cokehead on a future then bet ferrer in the final..Or the donkey wins today and beats ferrer then I am golden..
                                    Comment
                                    • beefcake
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 11-26-09
                                      • 14029

                                      #19
                                      Gonna hold off and see if brands can extend the streak

                                      Brands +4 +105

                                      Brands +328
                                      Comment
                                      • beefcake
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-26-09
                                        • 14029

                                        #20
                                        No dice with brands in the future 0-6 -6 units.But you could have made some cash with a hedge.5 dimes never offered them for Doha

                                        Another qualie covers ATS

                                        ATS 10-7-2 +2.3
                                        ML 7-12 -3.44
                                        Comment
                                        • beefcake
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-26-09
                                          • 14029

                                          #21
                                          Had to bring this up.Busy as hell and no chance to track this this year.But had to mention Gulbis won as a QF last week.Think he was around 15 to 20-1 to win it..
                                          Comment
                                          • Hardcoar
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 02-17-13
                                            • 15606

                                            #22
                                            Likely 20 at least, but the odds weren't impressive to me.
                                            Comment
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