ATP Tour Finals @ The O2: Deep Thoughts by EP36

[EaglesPhan36]

Just posting info this week that I find that might useful to you and thoughts on prices, handicaps, totals, whatever. Last tournament of the season, so let's be strong with the money management and strategy my dudes.



Tournament Overview

GROUP A
Djokovic
Murray
Tsonga
Berdych

Easily the tougher group of the two. Lots of things to consider to begin. #1, Djokovic's health/mental state. He was obviously struggling with both health & concentration in Paris. Going out early in Paris likely was a best case scenario for him. While most seem to think he's going to hit the ground running and advance from this group, I think you have to tread lightly until you see him play this first match. His father's health problems obviously weighed on him. Likely, that won't be a concentration issue this time - but who knows for sure until he hits the O2 in London. Murray obviously will be the crowd favorite. The meltdown against Janowicz last week not withstanding, he has been fairlysteady since winning the US Open. He made the semis in Tokyo and the Final in Shanghai before last week's crash out. Health/fatigue wise, he could be in the best shape of this group. Djokovic has the illness questions from last week. Berdych looked very uneven in most of his matches last week in Paris & Tsonga was carrying a back issue into Paris. Tsonga looks to be a longshot in this group. He played very well here last year, but opens with a bad match-up against Djokovic ... if Djokovic is 100%. He's also been beaten by Berdych twice in October, but both were competitive. Murray has beaten him five times straight, but they've only met once this year and that was @ Wimbledon.

Outlook: If Djokovic is close to 100%, I am expecting a strong effort as he came into the O2 last season at far less than 100% and did not show strong. I think even though he's guaranteed to finish #1, finishing strong in this tournament is important to him - especially after failing to win any of the past three Slams. Murray looks to be the other best shot in this group. I could see Berdych sneaking into the semis if he can beat Murray to open, but his play has to be a lot more consistent than it was in Paris.

Group B
Federer
Del Potro
Ferrer
Tipsarevic

Absolutely no doubt that Federer is in the best shape of anyone in this group. He took off from Paris, sacrificing the #1 ranking to prep for this tournament. Both Ferrer & Del Potro carry some solid form with both winning two indoor tournaments in the past few weeks. Fatigue though is a real potential hazard for both, especially Ferrer who won Paris on Sunday and will have very little recovery time. Tipsarevic's physical ailments likely make him a non-factor in this group and I still would not be surprised if he doesn't get subbed out for an alternate this week at some point. Other than the loss to Del Potro in Basel, Federer has owned Del Potro for most of 2012 and maybe has the extra incentive from that loss next time they meet. His record against Ferrer is impeccable. Federer should qualify for the semis with relative ease and is a solid shot to win the group. The other spot should come down to Del Potro and Ferrer. Give Del Potro the edge as he gets Ferrer first-up on Tuesday in a spot where he could possibly exploit his fatigue.

Outlook: Federer will be one of the two semifinalists here. He chose this is the more important tournament than Paris and his effort should show. Del Potro-Ferrer winner will have a leg up on the 2nd spot. I give Delpo a slight edge again as Ferrer even with his fitness will likely show some wear and tear after a couple longer weeks.


Futures
Federer to Win +285
Murray to Win Group A +150

Both these are made to hedge IMO. It would be a pretty big upset for Federer not to be in the knockout round, so you should have a shot to hedge out in the semis or final if need be. Murray to win the group to me is a better shot than Djokovic @ shorter odds simply because of not knowing exactly how he will come into this event. Likely, it's a Djokovic-Murray head-2-head battle to win this group.

[EaglesPhan36]

11-5-12: Murray-Berdych Under 23 [-105] @ Bovada
The thought process for me is that Berdych really slumped in Paris. He was starting slow in matches and that will get you buried quick against a guy like Murray who can keep breaking your serve down throughout a set. Public will be on the over due to the past results which show most of their Best of 3 set matches going the distance. I think early in the week to start, one of these two is going to be sluggish and get bit in straights. Tend to think Murray will be the one doing the biting.

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright Murray. Bend over & take it from the Berd Man then. I'll take whatever I gets if the under hits. Berdy up 5-2 late in the 1st. Saved some break points and as often goes, Murray struggled on his service game after failing to capitalize and got broke.

[EaglesPhan36]

Knew it. Set over when Berdych does thed same - blowing multiple break opps and comes out and gets broken next game. Under is done.

[riffraff24]

Any plays on Tsonga.Djoker?

[EaglesPhan36]

Nah. I want to see what version of Djokovic is here. If he's healthy and not distracted, Tsonga has never really played him tough and it could be a blowout. If not, Tsonga can serve and keep it tight - but it's really tough to call without seeing him play. I'm probably only making one play per day this week since I likely won't be able to do parlays like I like - keeping it low stakes. Only thing I really invested fully in was Federer to win the whole thing, hoping to make some money off it one way or the other.

[riffraff24]

Good stuff brother. Best of luck to you.

[EaglesPhan36]

End result of this match is what looked the most probable, Murray winning - just that the schmuck started slow and dropped a set. Otherwise, he's been in control for the most part and Berdych looking just as inconsistent as last week. Could have been a nice under in straights if not for his early goof off.

[gregm]

Great write up as usual Ep. Thanks. Part of me wants to take a shot on Ferrer to win this after his incredible year and finally winning a masters but deep down I know its not going to happen. Like you said, not much recovery time and such poor historical numbers against Fed and Nole.

[EaglesPhan36]

LoL. Richard Gasquet is the alternate player as the 10th ranked ATP player. He will be the one to sub in for anyone who succumbs to fatigue or injury. I think Tipsarevic as I have said is the likely candidate to me. I think if they go to a 2nd alternate, it's Simon. Jesus, I hope not more than one guy drops off. I don't wanna see that putz play any more this season.

[Cross]

Indoor conditions should help Tsonga hold serve easier so it could be close and maybe an upset if Djokovic is a ill rusty.

[EaglesPhan36]

Solid day for Djokovic. Think he's good to go here.

[EaglesPhan36]

11-6-12: Federer-Tipsarevic Under 21 [-120]
From Mr.T's Twitter: "Feeling better, awaiting blood results." This after his dizzy spell in Paris. I still won't be surprised if Tipsarevic doesn't play or gets subbed after a round or two here. That being said, Federer was already a tough match-up for Tipsarevic and a well-rested Fed against a gassed Mr.T is a recipe potentially for a quick match.

Parlay: Bhupathi-Bopanna + Del Potro [+130]

[gregm]

Good luck EP. I just placed a wager on fed in a ml parlay with a few champions league matches tomorrow, I dont have much confidence in any totals or handicap wagers, finding the right book and retirement rules is essential when you are wagering against Tipsarevic.

Tipsarevic has some of the most staggering retirement stats in all of tennis, and he has really returned to form retiring in his last three tourneys but this year was pretty good for him in terms of retirements. I once read a stat that he has retired in around 13% of his matches, will he add London to his golden slam of retirements (2008 olympics, retired from the US Open in 3 different years, the french in 2009, Australian open in 2007, and Wimbledon in 2011)? I hope not.

[EaglesPhan36]

Fed-Tipsarevic line taken @ 21 instead of 20.5.

[AdamL2424]

EP would you take it under at 20?

[EaglesPhan36]

Doubles team chokes serving for the match. Yay.

I would want at least 20.5, protects you from a 6-4, 6-4 type result.

[freshguy222]

6-4 6-4 is a very untypical result for fed, as he usually starts serving and wins the first very often 6-3

[EaglesPhan36]

LoL. If you can predict set scores, then sure I suppose you can know. I don't really see 6-3 occurring more than any other result if you look over his 1st set results this year. Obviously didn't matter what # you had if you had the under, I just look for maximum protection when I take unders and it would chap my ass if I took Under 20 for a slightly better price and it finished 6-4, 6-4 or 6-2, 7-5 and pushed when it was a relatively easy unders win on 20.5 or 21.

[beefcake]

Nice win man..

[EaglesPhan36]

11-7-12: Djokovic -123
Going with my gut for this one. I thought coming into the week that if Djokovic had shaken off the virus that plagued him and showed his focus was back that he would be in line to be the guy to beat. Ascending back to #1 was important for him, but I think he wants to feel like he's earned it with a win at the O2. These guys have had some great wars this season and this promises to be nothing less. Djokovic I think showed slightly better in his opener whereas Murray struggled some against Berdych and was on the ropes in the second with a couple of break points offered up that would have put Berdych up a set and a break. Berdy couldn't pull them out and Murray steadied himself and won in 3. This is a big match for the group, basically for the top spot and to avoid Federer if all holds accordingly until the Final.

[Pinocchio]

Are you going to be taking 20 (risk) points for Murray too? Same as before, first set must be completed for action?
Let us know... if you are, I'm in for 20 again.

[sando]

11-7-12: Djokovic -123
Going with my gut for this one. I thought coming into the week that if Djokovic had shaken off the virus that plagued him and showed his focus was back that he would be in line to be the guy to beat. Ascending back to #1 was important for him, but I think he wants to feel like he's earned it with a win at the O2. These guys have had some great wars this season and this promises to be nothing less. Djokovic I think showed slightly better in his opener whereas Murray struggled some against Berdych and was on the ropes in the second with a couple of break points offered up that would have put Berdych up a set and a break. Berdy couldn't pull them out and Murray steadied himself and won in 3. This is a big match for the group, basically for the top spot and to avoid Federer if all holds accordingly until the Final.

Solid analysis as usual EP, I agree 100% Loving Djokovic in this spot

[Goat Milk]

love how 2 years ago on this site everyone thought fed was done and now he's back to being the best player in the world

federer owns the tournament of champions

[EaglesPhan36]

Age has given him wisdom that the younger players need as far as scheduling. I think the way he has worked his schedule in the last two years has added at least an extra year probably to his career if he wants it. I think the younger guys would do well to watch how Federer has done things like disregard the points from Paris to concentrate on London. Hell, learn from Serena. She plays about 40% of a season and concentrates on the big tourneys.

Nadal is the first guy I think of in this vein. He's learned slowly to scale back, but not fast enough. He's got to make a major Serena-like change to his scheduling.

[freshguy222]

LoL. If you can predict set scores, then sure I suppose you can know. I don't really see 6-3 occurring more than any other result if you look over his 1st set results this year. Obviously didn't matter what # you had if you had the under, I just look for maximum protection when I take unders and it would chap my ass if I took Under 20 for a slightly better price and it finished 6-4, 6-4 or 6-2, 7-5 and pushed when it was a relatively easy unders win on 20.5 or 21.

there are definitely more 6-3 scores int he first set WHEN he makes one break, as he almost always starts serving, but often against the players he knows he cannot lose to, he has 7-6 sets as he doesn't have the return game as a murray or djokovic who can constantly put up 6-1s

[EaglesPhan36]

Not a real clean 3rd set for either guy, but a win nonetheless that I will take.

[PharaohUB]

Eagles. You think Marray Neilsen are primed for another run in England? They are +240 dogs today after beating the indian guys as +200 guys yesterday. Any thoughts?

[Demonata]

HEy EP good hit. What do you think about Berdych vs Tsonga?

[EaglesPhan36]

I paid attention to that obviously because I bet against them. Indian squad flat out choked yesterday. They had two match points I think and blew both of them. Tough to say really. Nestor-Mirnyi have not had a great second half of the season, but the experience edge is tough to look past.

Berdych-Tsonga is a total toss-up. No play for me. I haven't been very impressed with Berdych's roller coaster matches lately - but he could have beaten Murray if he capitalized on some break opps. He does have Tsonga;s # lately though. Always hard to beat someone three times in a row I suppose, but I don't see a clear advantage here.

[Demonata]

Thanks for the insight.

[PharaohUB]

Thanks EP.

[PharaohUB]

Eagles. You think Marray Neilsen are primed for another run in England? They are +240 dogs today after beating the indian guys as +200 guys yesterday. Any thoughts?

They pulled out another tight one. I don't think I've ever lost betting on these guys lol. They are clearly overmatched talent wise but they figure out a way to win in London.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah might just ought to bet the dogs in all the doubles matches. Think dogs are 3-1 so far. I won some back with the Indians this morning. That or try betting the 2-1 result on both sides. Seems like most of these are going to the super breaker as well.

[EaglesPhan36]

O2 Record: 2-2 [-0.05]

11-8-12: [Parlay] Federer 2-0 + Del Potro 2-0 [+125]
Trying both of these selections. Federer has proven to be a bad match-up for Ferrer, time and time again. 14 meetings and I believe Ferrer has won a grand total of ONE set. Perhaps in his current run of form, this could be time for him to make it competitive - but I see Federer locked & loaded with good match-ups in this group. A win puts him in position to do whatever he wants against Del Potro. I say that because if Murray were to flop and give Berdych an opening to fill slot #2, not sure Roger wants him after that US Open meeting. Just consideration. Del Potro should appreciate a worn down opponent who won't force him to work as hard as Ferrer. Del Potro was a poor match-up for a 100% Tipsarevic. They haven't met since 2011, but Del Potro worked him over on hard courts twice and Tipsarevic admitted after the Federer match that he wasn't feeling good physically as we expected. His hope would be that Ferrer took something out of Del Potro to get him closer to his level, but even so - Mr.T looks to be the most spent player @ this event.