TI Consensus Dog Fades

[Cappinpicks]

Donald young may be a winner hopefully 0 tips so far on him and a favorite 8 on the other guy

[EaglesPhan36]

That one doesn't fit. It opened with both under +100. Should state that as well, the dogs considered have to open as dogs, not move to dogs, etc. I don't see any that fit the bill for tomorrow as of now.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

In women's tennis dogs do well but in men's favorites tend to get the job done, correct?

Surprisingly not.

The difference with wta is that dogs between 2.0 and 3.0 don't have much juice on them, 2762/6847 for -2.8%. In the atp this range is -5.2%.

Above that it just keeps increasing and increasing though, and above 5.0 you're at 326/3114 for -25.6%. The atp is about the same.

[EaglesPhan36]

#12: ATP Moscow: Janowicz -120
16/26 on Bellucci

[EaglesPhan36]

#13: WTA Luxembourg: Hradecka -150
24/33 on Niculescu

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated the #s for these two. The Janowicz pick will be interesting to watch. 60-65% is what I am looking at minimum, usually want closer to 65% on the dog to consider for this project ... Janowicz down to 61%, so we'll see how that pans out.

[EaglesPhan36]

#12: ATP Moscow: Janowicz -120
16/28 on Bellucci

Removing this one from the track. Pretty close to 50-50 now, so no longer appropriate for this methodology.

[Cappinpicks]

lets nail the hradecka match... Venus/stosur/berdych look good as well in a parlay

[Cappinpicks]

Big loser on the ugly, fade stosur as well for easy dog money most likely

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated TI Fade Record: 6-6


PLAY #13: ATP VALENCIA: QUERREY -140
Lopez tipped 10/13

PLAY #14: ATP BASEL: TROICKI -125
Dimitrov tipped 11/17


These are the two I see that fit so far. Will keep an eye open to see how these trend late tonight heading into tomorrow. The only other one that might fall into the criteria would be Kevin Anderson, but the tips are too light so far with 5/8 on Nieminen. Will monitor.

[EaglesPhan36]

Querrey wins in straights. Tips now favor Dimitrov 20/26. Nieminen match doesn't fit the criteria, so just these two.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated TI Fade Record: 7-7

PLAY #15: ATP VALENCIA: DOLGOPOLOV -165
15/16 tips on Granollers

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated the #s. Looks like the only one for tomorrow.

[EaglesPhan36]

This is either going to be a banner day for bettors or an online slaughter. Barely a soul NOT on Granollers to beat Dolgopolov tomorrow. I know every once in a while the public gets it right, but damn this just seems like an absolute raping ready to ensue tomorrow.

[EaglesPhan36]

PLAY #16: ATP VALENCIA: GOFFIN -130
23/26 on Melzer

Just saw these updated numbers and loads went on Melzer. One of these dogs is going to get smashed. Probably Melzer since I took him. Yikes.

[EaglesPhan36]

This is either going to be a banner day for bettors or an online slaughter. Barely a soul NOT on Granollers to beat Dolgopolov tomorrow. I know every once in a while the public gets it right, but damn this just seems like an absolute raping ready to ensue tomorrow.

Blood bath for Granollers backers. Glad I did not invest anything in that one although I did want to test the waters & go Dolgo - but that bridge has burned 10x over.

[beefcake]

Wow, when Dolgo is on he is good.Fukker returning everything!

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated TI Fade Record: 8-8

10.29.12
ATP PARIS: MAYER -140
23/31 tips on Falla

ATP PARIS: SIMON -150
30/37 on Baghdatis

[ThaTopMoron]

Updated TI Fade Record: 8-8

10.29.12
ATP PARIS: MAYER -140
9/12 tips on Falla

ATP PARIS: SIMON -150
18/20 on Baghdatis

don't follow tennis

9/12 tips ??? what

18/20 ???

you are betting the favorites right?

[EaglesPhan36]

Read the 1st post. Tells you the purpose of the thread.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated the # of tips on each. Even heavier now on both dogs over @ T.I.

[rumple]

Wow, looks like the Seppi match is fixed. Very fishy.

[Cappinpicks]

Updated the # of tips on each. Even heavier now on both dogs over @ T.I.

can't believe the record is in the negative fading these chumps.. might as well flip a damn coin mayer is the biggest joke choker ever needs to retire and play challenger

[Cappinpicks]

finally mayer hits a winner

[Cappinpicks]

Injured Falla mutilates pussy MAYHER to bank, now baggy will kill the other pussy to send the fade dog method to 8-10... should have gave up on this ages ago

[Cappinpicks]

8-11 really if you add the -180 loser in Kohls... tanked just like the epic pussy Floria

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated TI Fade Record: 9-9

Simon rolls. Mayer falls. Another split. Will say the short tracking of this so far hasn't obviously yielded any massive trends, but I think this is a fascinating thing to look at still when you're looking at these shorter prices on both favorites and dogs. As the record shows, pretty much 1 of 2 consensus dogs loses. These may at least give you something to look harder at if you're on a particular side for a match. For me, that was the case today. Thought going against Mayer & taking Falla was probably solid due to lack of form and injury. Whereas Baghdatis is commonly falling short of a W as a short dog it seems. Again, these are not actual picks I make or think are necessarily ones to make - but tracking how consensus underdog selections @ TennisInsight pan out.

[EaglesPhan36]

8-11 really if you add the -180 loser in Kohls... tanked just like the epic pussy Floria

Again dude, you're not following the methodology on these. They have to be CONSENSUS or close to CONSENSUS picks. I'm looking @ 65% minimum on the dog side to consider and need tips to be as close to 20 minimum to have a good sample size. Not including anything but that. I don't know what the final tally was on tips for that one, but it was not a big enough size on Janowicz the last time I looked before the matches started to include. I will double check and see if I can get a final tally to see what it was, but do not believe this was in the range.

[Cappinpicks]

Again dude, you're not following the methodology on these. They have to be CONSENSUS or close to CONSENSUS picks. I'm looking @ 65% minimum on the dog side to consider and need tips to be as close to 20 minimum to have a good sample size. Not including anything but that. I don't know what the final tally was on tips for that one, but it was not a big enough size on Janowicz the last time I looked before the matches started to include. I will double check and see if I can get a final tally to see what it was, but do not believe this was in the range.

there seemed to be atleast 15 more on jerzy than kohls... sorry if you missed it just going off what i saw last... kohls and mayer were absolute jokes fading the tipsters

[EaglesPhan36]

Last time I had seen it was close, but I hadn't been tracking it like the others which were massively in favor of the dog over the favorite. Have a check in to get the final tally. Thanks for the heads up, so I can keep track.

[EaglesPhan36]

Info relayed to me had Janowicz tipped 16/23. so should have been included.

Updated TI Fade Record: 9-10

10.30.12: ATP PARIS

DIMITROV -170
12/17 tips on Melzer

STEPANEK -170
15/19 tips on Llodra

[Cappinpicks]

Know anything about that fruit losing in the rain delayed game? Went dog based off line movement in the challenger but got ****** with rain and a loser most likely..

[EaglesPhan36]

I'd suggest not making plays based on line movement in tennis as a general rule. No worries if it was your original selection, but chasing movement in tennis is a nasty habit that will drive you nuts.

[Cappinpicks]

I wish I knew he beat the guy he was playing before it started, figures the line move just made the dog a big loser enticer.... shit

[Cappinpicks]

Chardy winner thought that was a play dimitrov was off my book when i passed out weird